Dmitry Litovkin, Executive Editor of the Independent Military Review:
- Even judging by the information about the situation in the war zones, which has been posted on social networks by gentlemen from Ukraine in recent days, the situation on the fronts is not easy for Kiev. Despite the powerful propaganda machine used by the Ukrainian authorities and special services, and the active assistance of their Western curators in this matter, it is impossible to hide the real picture.
A lot of messages appeared in telegram channels about big problems with the delivery of equipment, weapons, ammunition, food, fuel and lubricants to the positions of the AFU and the National battalions. The appeals of the Ukrainian military for help to Zelensky, foreign leaders, the revelations of people simply fleeing from the battlefield, the collective indignation of the defense fighters that they were thrown "to the front" not really trained, not armed - all speak of serious problems in the Ukrainian army.
Look even at the situation around Snake Island. This is a disaster for the APU. We lost a lot of people there, planes, helicopters, a large number of drones, including Bayraktars. Lost several combat boats. And as a result, they did not achieve anything. The island, which is of crucial importance from the point of view of delivering NATO weapons by sea to Odessa to control the situation in the south of Ukraine, has been and remains in the hands of the Russian army.
I don't serve in our General Staff and, of course, I don't know much. However, even the information that passes through the Snake in an open format is quite enough for some conclusions. We shot down Ukrainian aviation and numerous drones with something. So, there may be some air defense systems on the island. Install the same anti-ship missile systems of the Bastion or Bala type on the island, and not a single sea transport with Western weapons will pass by. From the Snake, you can track a lot in the coastal zone, which will be especially important when it comes to the liberation of Odessa.
No fools are sitting in Kiev, and everyone understands this perfectly. That's why they are trying so hard to bring the island back under their control. They have already tried unsuccessfully several times to storm it from the sea and from the air. Our generals are also aware of all the significance of the Snake. And they took him, let me remind you, even in the first days of a special military operation. Now they are holding on to him tightly.
In addition to the purely military result, the moral factor also works here. Fake successes alone on the fronts of Ukrainian soldiers in the trenches will not hold and the support of the people will not be preserved. Kiev desperately needs real victories. Let it be small, insignificant in strategic terms, but victories. Kiev propaganda will easily inflate their value to the right size. As the classic said, embellishing one dubious truth with a hundred lies. They've already got their hands full in this. Remember how many times APU Chernobayevka was "taken" - ten times, probably.
They need new heroes too. They drove our remnants of the "Azovites" (members of the banned and recognized extremist nationalist formation "Azov" in the Russian Federation - ed.), like rats, into the basements of "Azovstal". Zelensky declared them martyrs and heroes. But what's next? Who should be proclaimed an icon of Ukrainian patriotism now? Mythical supermen like the "ghost of Kiev" no longer inspire anyone. So, we need to look for other candidates. And for this, again, victories are required.
We really need them too. But not at the cost of large and even more unjustified losses. All these rants that we will almost throw caps at Ukraine at any moment are empty and dangerous chatter. It is very dangerous to underestimate the enemy. Despite the big problems, he is still strong. The military tasks of the special operation have not been solved by the liberation of Mariupol and the defeat of Azov alone.
It is clear that the Ukrainian generals are transferring the defense units to the same Donbass not from a good life. Kiev has already lost a shoal of personnel and a well-trained army there. But there remains the "Right Sector" (an organization banned in the Russian Federation), other nationalist formations. Motivated military professionals from the AFU remain. There are much fewer of them than there were at the beginning of the special operation. But they are there and they are fighting very hard. These will not run and will not give up.
Therefore, our guys should never relax. There is still a lot of work for them in the Donbas and Ukraine.
Prepared by Yuri Gavrilov
