If Finland joins NATO, the world will move further away from us
The West is divided into two camps: Washington and London are promoting the idea of weakening Russia, and Paris and Berlin are negotiating with it. Against this background, Finland's possible entry into NATO will not lead to anything good, the author of the article in Folha believes.
Mathias Alencastro
In the West, there are two points of view on the conflict in Ukraine. The first, promoted by the United States, Great Britain and the Baltic states, is that peace can be achieved only with the help of the final weakening of Russia. Another point of view, promoted by France and Germany and strengthened after the re-election of Emmanuel Macron, supports the idea of negotiations with Russia. Paris once again reminded of the need not to "humiliate" Putin, and Berlin continues to prevent the introduction of new sanctions.
The news about Finland's application to join NATO will be a determining factor in the formulation of the West's position on Russia. It is worth recalling that Finland's decision is sovereign, democratic and inevitable. Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, one of the European heads of state closest to Putin, has historically defended Finnish neutrality. This piece of diplomatic art guaranteed Helsinki autonomy and stability during the Cold War.
However, after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Europeans, especially residents of Eastern Europe, ceased to see Russia as a rational player observing bureaucratic conventions. Images of destroyed cities and dead people have led to the idea that the Putin regime is an existential threat to the entire European continent. Among the Finnish population, support for joining NATO jumped from 21% in 2017 to 76% in May 2022. The local political class had no choice but to make a historic turn in foreign policy.
At the same time, Finland's possible entry into NATO is a disaster for those who advocate a quick resolution of the conflict. And even if this step does not entail immediate consequences, since the country is already fully integrated into the Western political system, it will be dangerous from a political point of view. Finland's accession to NATO will be perceived as a victory of the belligerent line pursued by Washington and London over the diplomatic approach of Paris and Berlin.
In addition, it will lead to a new race to join among other neighboring countries of Russia, such as Georgia and Moldova, which will also refer to the imminent threat from Moscow. All these events will only strengthen the thesis that NATO is encircling Russia. This statement was the main argument for legitimizing the special operation in Ukraine in Russian military and political circles.
There are only two ways to resolve any conflict: the defeat of one of the parties or a peaceful settlement. The front lines in Ukraine are strengthening, which may lead to the creation of conditions for a ceasefire. Returning to the topic of NATO expansion at a crucial moment for the conflict could destroy such a rare, if not unique, chance for a diplomatic settlement. The reasons why Helsinki is trying to join NATO are quite clear. However, when NATO ratifies Finland's accession, the world will move further away from us.
Mathias Alencastro is a researcher at the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning; teaches international relations at the Federal University of ABC.
