The Norwegian diplomat foresees Russia's retaliatory steps to join Sweden and Finland to NATO
Russia has not yet reacted in any way to the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, writes NRK. But experts interviewed by the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation are confident that retaliatory steps are inevitable. In particular, it is important what Moscow will do due to the fact that its base in Kaliningrad is now surrounded by the alliance countries.
Rebekka Ellingsen, Eirik Sørenmo Påsche, Arne Egil Tønset, Morten Hopkins Kræmer
With the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, the Scandinavian region in the alliance will get stronger, but at the same time all three northern countries are looking in different directions, according to diplomat Kai Eide.
"I am concerned about the ease with which we look at these issues," Kai Eide complained on the Sunday Morning program.
Eide is an experienced diplomat and chairman of the Norwegian—Swedish Chamber of Commerce.
He foresees Russian retaliatory measures against Sweden and Finland joining NATO. "We don't know yet exactly how this will affect us. But we must be aware that the prospect is very dangerous," he says.
NATO membership will bring these countries closer to Norway, but Eide believes that they all look in different directions.
The Swedes, he says, are looking at the Baltic Sea, the Finns are looking at their 1,300—kilometer border with Russia, and Norway is looking at the northern regions.
"We like to say that Norway will play a leading role, but I have read, for example, that the Swedish media assign it to Sweden," he notes.
On Sunday it became known that Finland is applying for membership in NATO. This was confirmed by President Sauli Niinisto at a press conference.
Soon the newspaper Svenska Dagbladet reported that Sweden will apply for membership in NATO on Tuesday or Wednesday.
A positive step for the United North
Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram from the Center Party sees a number of advantages in the fact that a unified Scandinavia will be represented in NATO.
However, he agrees with Eide in many ways.
"Norway and Denmark do not always share a common opinion. We must be prepared for the fact that new questions and discussions will arise now," he says.
At the same time, Gram is convinced that joining the alliance of Sweden and Finland is a positive step for a united Scandinavia.
He wants Norway to play a leading role in the work of the Scandinavian countries for the benefit of the alliance.
"A single Scandinavian voice will sound in the alliance. Our common contribution will become more significant, and this will facilitate our defense planning," he said.
Norway must take on the role of leader
Janne Haaland Matlary is a professor of political science at the University of Oslo and the Norwegian Military Academy.
She considers closer military cooperation to be a positive factor.
"We will strengthen our common potential, we will be able to conduct exercises, transfer units and equipment through Sweden and Finland. Our defense will become more effective," she says.
Matlari agrees with the Minister of Defense and believes that it is quite natural to imagine Norway as a leader among the Scandinavian countries in NATO.
"It is important that Norway knows how everything works. We have experience working in the Arctic and in the Far North within the framework of NATO," she says.
We are waiting for Russia's reaction
But the professor is worried about how Russia will react to the fact that its base in Kaliningrad is now surrounded by NATO countries.
Matlari believes that in response, Russia may deploy nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad and conduct more aggressive exercises to test NATO.
"The paradox is that it will become more difficult for Russia to use this strategically important base on a par with the Kola Peninsula and Crimea," she says.
The consequences are not known
Eide believes that Russia has not yet responded in any way to the applications of Sweden and Finland. He expects that in the future Russia will move troops and equipment closer to the borders — we have already seen this.
The diplomat notes that the longer the conflict in Ukraine lasts, the higher the risk of escalation.
At the same time, further cooperation between the Nordic countries will be important.
"Where we can achieve stability, we simply have to do it," says Eide.
"We have had the most dangerous, unpredictable and unstable decade since the Second World War. I am horrified to think what the current situation would be if we did not have cooperation with the EU," he concludes.
