Amid rising tensions between NATO and Russia, keep an eye on Kaliningrad
The Kaliningrad region is becoming an important object of attention, writes the Canadian newspaper Globe and Mail. According to the author of the article, it is this territory that can bring tensions between Russia and NATO to a fundamentally new level.
John Bell, John Zada
Kaliningrad Region is an isolated Russian province and enclave, comfortably located between the Baltic states and Poland in the very center of NATO territory. This is a vulnerable place for Russia, since Kaliningrad can easily be cut off from its main territory. But at the same time, this area may suddenly turn into a Russian vanguard, located deep in Europe and capable of becoming a hotbed of destabilization and escalation of tension.
As the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, the West is being drawn into it more thoroughly, and the risk of its new zones is increasing. Geopolitical stakes are also rising due to the upcoming accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. First of all, this concerns the Baltic region, and therefore Kaliningrad is becoming a critical focus of attention.
This city, formerly called Konigsberg, together with the region became a historical incident, being given to Stalin after the Second World War. Today, this strategically important and ice-free northern region hosts the Russian Baltic Fleet, modern air defense forces and mobile Iskander-M missile launchers capable of delivering nuclear warheads to the target. Vladimir Putin may increase military activity in this militarized enclave, as well as along the Russian border in the Baltic, posing a threat to NATO members Poland and Germany.
The first steps in this direction have already appeared. In April, Kaliningrad was in the center of the news when Russia announced its readiness to deploy nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles in this enclave if Sweden and Finland join NATO (Lithuania, however, claims that Moscow already has nuclear weapons in the Baltic States). Subsequently, Putin made threats about a "lightning-fast" response to Western intervention in the Ukrainian conflict. From this we can conclude that he was referring to Kaliningrad, since it is located at the forefront not far from some capitals.
The military is developing another scenario involving a possible Russian invasion of the Suwalki corridor. This is a hundred-kilometer stretch of hilly countryside belonging to Poland and Lithuania, and separating the Kaliningrad Region from Russia's ally Belarus. This corridor is considered the Achilles heel of NATO. In the event of the outbreak of hostilities between East and West, or if Putin simply decides to start putting sticks in the wheels, Russian troops will be able to seize this corridor, cutting off the Baltic states from their neighbor and NATO ally Poland.
Such a step will be aimed at linking Kaliningrad with Belarus, and therefore with Russia. And he will also deprive the Baltic countries of NATO's military and other assistance delivered by land. This will mean the beginning of a war between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, which the parties have so far avoided in every possible way, despite all their statements and actions.
NATO and Russia are conducting military exercises in preparation for such a development. After the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, NATO troops in the area were slightly reinforced. Undoubtedly, such a scenario was taken into account.
In the short term, NATO must act very carefully. The Alliance needs to strengthen its grouping around the Suwalki corridor. But he must do this in such a way that he does not threaten Russia's control over Kaliningrad and does not cause an escalation if Moscow misinterprets these actions.
Fortunately, there is little evidence today that the struggle between Russia and NATO will go beyond Ukraine. Many will say that Putin is busy with Ukraine up to his neck, and he has limited opportunities, and therefore he has no desire to agree to the worst scenario and further adventures. However, few people were able to correctly predict his actions in Ukraine. First of all, those who believed that all parties after the seizure of Crimea in 2014 would act rationally based on their reasonable interests were mistaken.
Whatever happens, Russia and NATO will at some point have to discuss again a mutually acceptable architecture and security measures that will not lead to a new major war. There may simply be a need for a "cold peace", when tensions between the parties will persist, but they will actively avoid conflict.
In any scenario, the Kaliningrad Region, which both sides currently consider a vulnerable place and a potential hotspot, can also be considered as a good opportunity. Like other places in Europe, it has a complex and multi-layered history. Once it was Baltic, then it became Prussian and German, and today it is Russian. The geographical location and vulnerability of this region mean that it will be the focus of attention of the parties, forcing them to quickly create new agreements on security issues and on the most important interests.
In order to eliminate the above risks, the parties will have to agree again that the Kaliningrad Region, as well as Poland and the Baltic countries become non-nuclear. Today Kaliningrad creates problems for both Russia and NATO. Primitive reflexes in this region are fraught with the most dangerous and tragic consequences. When calm prevails, or when the threat of mutual destruction shakes up all sides and forces them to turn to common sense, Kaliningrad can become a necessary launching pad for de-escalation and the development of a system of mutual security for the rest of Europe.
