Finland is about to ask for membership in NATO. Why is this bad news for Putin
Putin's efforts to reduce the influence of NATO in Europe have had the opposite effect, CNN writes. One of the most dangerous consequences for Russia is the prospect of Finland joining the military bloc. The desire of this country to become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance is bad news for the Kremlin, and that's why.
Luke McGee
Russia's military operation in Ukraine has backfired in many ways. One of the most dangerous consequences for Vladimir Putin is the increasingly likely prospect of Finland joining NATO.
The Northern European country is expected to declare its interest in becoming a NATO member this week, after the Foreign Affairs Committee prepares a response to the government's security report. Among the possible solutions is joining the alliance. After that, the Finnish government will hold an extraordinary meeting at which it will decide whether to follow the recommendations from the safety report.
It is likely that NATO will offer the country to discuss joining the alliance.
It is widely believed that this will happen very quickly, since Finland already meets most of the requirements, and it is unlikely that any of the NATO members will object.
Numerous recent polls have shown that at least 60% of Finns are in favor of NATO membership — a big jump from 30% in previous years.
If everything goes as expected, this country with a population of almost six million people will redraw the map of European security in a previously unimaginable way, which could have terrible consequences for Russia.
Before the start of the military operation in Ukraine, Putin made it clear that NATO was too close to Russia and should move back to the positions of the 1990s, that is, remain on the borders that were before the entry of Russian neighbors or former Soviet republics into the military bloc.
According to the alliance, Russia now shares a 1,200-kilometer land border with five NATO members. The accession of Finland would mean that the country with which Russia has a border with a length of about 1,280 kilometers would formally occupy the US military position.
Finland's accession to NATO would not only be bad news for the Kremlin, but also a gift for the North Atlantic Alliance itself. Despite its relatively small population, Finland is a serious military power that has been unofficially adhering to the position of the West for years. Its army has been using American equipment that meets the requirements of NATO for several decades, which means that if desired, it can easily join the alliance's missions.
Ideology of "survival"
Many people think that before the Ukrainian crisis, Finland did not join NATO purely out of pragmatism.
"Finnish security has always been based on two concepts: firstly, geography and history, and secondly, idealism and realism," former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb told CNN.
"In an ideal world, we want to cooperate with Russia, which is inevitable, since geographically it is our neighbor. But we also know from history that Russia poses the greatest real threat to our national security. Over time, it became clear that Russia wants to create more chaos in our region, so now joining NATO is a pragmatic option," he added.
Historically, Finland has managed to combine these realities: it has indulged Russia's security interests, no matter how irrational they may be, and at the same time continued to incur high defense costs and purchase equipment compatible with the equipment of Western allies.
"The idea that some Western country would invade Russia has always been absurd, but we have tried to minimize these fears by expanding trade and cooperating in other areas," said Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a leading global security researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Relations.
The researcher added that, in addition to promoting policies such as conscription of all men and high defense spending, Finnish politicians persistently instilled in the public that an idealistic lifestyle in Finland must be maintained at all costs.
"Finland's default ideology was the ideology of survival. Over the past 100 years, we have become a strong, sovereign country with a high standard of living. We had to sacrifice the land to keep the peace," Salonius—Pasternak said. "Therefore, it is extremely important that our way of life is preserved, whether through pragmatic diplomacy or through a tougher stance against our greatest threat."
There is no doubt that Finland's accession to NATO will be a serious blow for Putin. This would not only entail an additional 1,280 kilometers of the common border with the alliance, but would also symbolically contribute to the further unification of the anti-Putin coalition that emerged after the start of the operation in Ukraine. Once neutral countries are now financing Kiev and supplying it with weapons, while Putin is becoming an international outcast, who has fewer allies every day.
It would also expand NATO's influence in Northern Europe all the way to the Arctic, a region that is becoming increasingly important in geopolitical terms due to natural resources, strategic position and numerous territorial claims, including from Russia, Finland and the United States.
Sweden, which borders Finland to the west, is also considering joining the alliance, and Finland's accession will make this even more likely, since the two countries have been on the same path since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis.
Russian response
Of course, there are concerns about how Russia will react to Finland's desire to join NATO.
Former assistant chief of Finnish military intelligence Martti Kari (Martti Kari) told CNN that Russia is already launching a disinformation campaign. "The main theme revolves around the fact that Finland is a Nazi country because it fought against the USSR in World War II together with Nazi Germany," he said.
Kari believes that Russia may violate Finland's airspace and interfere with its activities at sea, for example, shipping, as well as intensify its intelligence operations against the country.
Håkon Lunde Saxi, associate professor at the Norwegian University College of Defense, believes that any step towards Finnish membership in NATO "may lead to the buildup of Russian military forces along the new NATO border with Russia, which in itself does not contribute to Finnish or European security."
However, according to the expert, there will be more advantages than "possible negative consequences from a slightly larger Russian military presence at the Finnish border."
Despite concerns about an interim period during which Finland will not be protected by NATO membership, but will negotiate, several officials told CNN that they expect alliance members, especially the UK and the US, to guarantee security for Finland throughout the process.
Finland has not yet taken the first step and has not announced its intention, so there is no clarity yet. But, given the public approval, political support and the fact that Russia has already done so much for its neighbors to join the hated rival, there is no doubt that Putin's efforts to reduce the influence of NATO in Europe have had the opposite effect.
