The Russian special operation has created a power vacuum in Europe
The competition for the role of the European arbiter, who will determine the political dynamics of the European continent, is in full swing. The United States remains an indispensable power, but it is unclear to what extent other European countries will follow them, writes Foreign Policy.
Russia and Berlin's morally untenable reaction have left Europe without a leader.
At the beginning of 2022, it seemed that the future of Europe was in the hands of Berlin and Moscow. They became European arbitrators. But the Russian military operation in Ukraine has changed the geopolitical map of the continent. The Germans and Russians disappeared from it, the British and Poles were on the rise, and the Americans returned – at least for a while.
Germany's economic strength has defined the life of the eurozone countries, especially after the 2008 financial crisis. Berlin's decisions on immigration, energy, fiscal policy and diplomacy were criticized, but few Europeans could afford to openly oppose the continent's most powerful economy. At the same time, to the east of Europe, Russia has again begun to take part in European politics, combining military power, interference in internal affairs and energy supplies. Following the long-established tradition of maintaining good relations with Russia, the German leadership sought to maintain business ties with Moscow. Germany has become the best customer for Gazprom, supplying the Russian economy and armed forces with the most important equipment and technologies, and hoping that Moscow will behave well in response.
The greatest pacifier of twentieth-century Europe, the United States was less interested in the continent. America has become convinced that Europe has become quite successful in terms of geopolitics after the end of the Cold War, and therefore Washington can focus its attention on other regions. The American wars that began after September 11 further diverted US attention and resources from Europe. Finally, China's rise has made the Pacific region America's top priority. A new sequence has emerged in the US strategy: Asia first, Europe second.
Now the Russian military campaign in Ukraine and Germany's very timid response to it have radically changed the alignment on the European chessboard. Russia and Germany, who claimed to be arbitrators deciding the fate of Europe in the XXI century, have weakened their positions today. Ukrainians rebuffed Russia, and Germany is shamed and criticized by most European countries. Britain and Poland, together with other countries of Central Europe and the Baltic States, fill the vacuum that has arisen and occupy leading positions in the West's opposition to Russia. And the United States, albeit reluctantly, is increasing its grouping of troops on the eastern borders of Europe and is slowly increasing the supply of weapons to Ukraine.
Russia lost the most. Until Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his operation in Ukraine, Russia was gradually restoring its influence in Europe, reaching a level it had not known since the end of the Cold War. Moscow has openly interfered in the internal politics of a number of European states, financing populist political parties, spreading disinformation through social networks and media accountable to the Kremlin, as well as providing money to many former European leaders. Russia has become an indispensable supplier of energy resources to a number of European countries, contributing to the development of the German economy with its cheap gas. Using brute force, it has reappeared in the Mediterranean region, controlling the flows of mass migration in Syria and north Africa.
Defending their country, Ukrainians stopped Russia's progress in the western direction and deprived it of the opportunity to become a great European power. Russian attempts at military action in Ukraine and the restoration of imperial status in Europe have so far failed. Moreover, even its closest supporters can no longer claim, as before, that Russia's place is in Europe. Only long-discredited figures like former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder can, as before, publicly advocate the restoration of good relations with Moscow.
Russia found itself isolated in Europe. But Germany has not lagged far behind it, being displaced by those countries that are unable to create economic competition for it, but today lead the European response to Russia.
Firstly, Germany lacks moral authority. Unwillingness to supply weapons to Ukrainians has finally been called a sign of moral weakness in the face of Russian brutality, although previously it was considered a policy of wise abstinence that ensures stability. Although German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has promised to significantly increase military spending, Germany is in no hurry to supply Kiev with heavy weapons. One of the reasons is the fear of Russia's retaliatory actions. But the rest of the world notices that even tiny Estonia, which has repeatedly been called the next candidate for capture by Russian troops, is ready to risk much more than Germany. Most likely, influential internal forces in Germany are still in favor of appeasing Russia in order to continue buying cheap gas.
Secondly, because of the recent policy, Berlin has lost the right to be called a reliable and trustworthy arbiter of European politics. Germany has been pursuing a pro-Russian policy in recent decades, seeking partnership with Moscow and ignoring the interests of the Baltic and Central European countries. The military actions in Ukraine clearly, cruelly and tragically demonstrated the failure of such an approach by Germany. Further, Berlin's unilateral decisions – on Russian gas, on immigration – deprived him of many friends in Europe. Berlin will have to try very hard to restore at least the semblance of diplomatic weight and authority in Europe.
France has also taken a defensive position. French President Emmanuel Macron, who tried to convince Putin to abandon his goals, failed. As time passes, his attempts seem naive at best, and self-serving at worst, since he is interested in France playing the role of mediator with Moscow to the detriment of Ukraine. Paris has also alienated other European states, primarily Italy. After France's disastrous intervention in Libya in 2011, the two countries support opposing factions there. And finally, France has long sought to become a major player in European security issues and weaken the US position on the continent, while resorting to the diplomatic euphemism "European sovereignty". But again, it faces the harsh reality that without the United States, the European Union will be mired in internal squabbles and will be at the mercy of external forces, such as Russia.
Russia's offensive in Ukraine also gives Britain and Poland an opportunity to show their leadership qualities. Before the start of the Russian special operation, these countries were given a place in European purgatory for the alleged sins of Brexit and for Poland's conservative domestic policy. As the then US President Barack Obama put it in 2016, speaking about Britain, these countries were "at the end of the queue." Progressive Europeans and Americans believed that Britain and Poland were on the wrong side of history, since London opposed the further political and economic integration of the continent, and Warsaw pursued a conservative social policy and opposed a uniform model of liberal democracy.
Britain was one of the first to deliver a large number of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine at the end of January. Poland also supplies weapons, including tanks, and also serves as a transshipment base for Western supplies and hosts several million refugees from Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Kiev, demonstrating their support for him. (Kiev refused an invitation to German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who has long been an associate of Schroeder and one of Russia's most influential supporters.)
And finally, the United States is back –at least for a while. They have sent about 20,000 troops to Europe, mainly to the eastern frontline NATO countries such as Romania, Poland and the Baltic states. American weapons continue to arrive in Ukraine in small batches. President Joe Biden visited Poland and very significantly refrained from criticizing the conservative policy of its government. The Democratic administration has decided that it is not worth attacking an ally for a policy that progressive liberals do not like, because it is counterproductive and does not contribute to strengthening regional security.
However, there are persistent doubts that the United States will gain a foothold as a key arbiter of Europe. The Biden administration hoped to repeat the policy of Obama, who subcontracted issues of the regional balance of power to partners, while he was engaged in rebooting relations with opponents. In Europe, this led to the fact that Germany was awarded the mantle of a regional leader, and a reset of relations with Russia began. Now such an approach is very problematic, if not impossible. Germany does not have the pan-European authority to lead Europe after numerous failures in politics and a morally untenable position regarding Russian actions. And it is impossible to reset relations with Russia, because it would mean betrayal of Ukraine and eastern NATO members.
As a result, the competition for the role of the European arbiter, which is the country or group of countries that determine the political dynamics of the continent, is in full swing. The hero of the day, of course, is the valiant people of Ukraine. But the function of Ukrainians at a high geopolitical level boils down to the fact that they shed light on a new circumstance, namely that the leading contenders from the past, such as Russia and Germany, are completely unsuitable for this role. The United States remains an indispensable Power, but it has to act through its European partners. It is unclear whether Biden is ready to bet on Britain, Poland and other NATO countries, which today protect European security from Russia, but are not at the forefront of political projects favored by Biden's party. It is also unclear to what extent other European countries will follow the US.
Jakub Grygiel