Retired US Major General: that's what Ukrainians need
American retired General Mike Repass arrived in Ukraine and realized that the supply of Western weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not enough to "prevent Russia's victory," CNN reports. He explained why this is happening.
The former head of the US Special Operations Command in Europe, retired Major General Mike Repass, believes that the international community should significantly strengthen support for Ukraine.
Repass has been advising the Ukrainian military for the past six years under a contract with the US government. Last month, he visited Poland and Western Ukraine to better understand the dynamics of the conflict.
He says that the Ukrainian supply chain of military equipment is inefficient, and Kiev needs additional forces.
To do this, Repass calls on the United States and its allies to create strategic forces consisting of five brigades of up to 40,000 soldiers to conduct offensive operations and oust Russian troops.
Explanation: Repass is a member of the advisory Board of the Global Special Operations Fund, in which the author of the article is the chairman of the board.
Bergen: what did you learn during the trip?
Repass: Firstly, that Ukraine needs more support. Secondly, that NATO is procrastinating. Thirdly, that we do not have a clear idea of where military equipment is sent after delivery to Ukraine.
Deliveries of military equipment are carried out on a personal, not professional basis: top management sets priorities for distribution, and, as far as I could see, they are not guided by combat necessity, operational tasks or objective data. And the fact that the commander of Brigade X or sector Y calls and says: "Listen, I need 27 Javelin missiles." So everything is decided by connections, and this is not a matter for wartime logistics. We need a clear understanding of what the consumption rates are for such fundamental things as fuel, ammunition, batteries.
Bergen: the likely outcome in Ukraine will be an insoluble bloody conflict?
Repass: Three obvious scenarios are emerging: Russia wins a military victory, Ukraine wins a military victory – or a stalemate. Two of the three scenarios mean Russia's victory.
In a stalemate, Russia will simply declare its victory in fact on the ground and continue to occupy the territory of Ukraine indefinitely. In this case, she will not achieve a complete victory, but she will control a significant territory.
So, what are we, the West, doing to prevent this? Everyone is thinking about fighting now – that's why we are supplying Ukrainians. But the Ukrainian army needs additional capabilities.
Bergen: Why?
Repass: because today they do not have enough forces – equipment, firepower and trained soldiers.
Russia will always have more forces – not necessarily better, but definitely more. As Stalin once said, "Quantity in itself always turns into quality." Most admit that a battle of attrition is coming, and at some point the pendulum will swing towards Russia if additional Ukrainian forces are not created.
I think the NATO countries and the international community are increasingly realizing that Ukraine needs more than just supplies. I believe that the United States and its allies should do four things. First, to weaken Russia and strengthen the potential of Ukraine. Secondly, to further restrain Russia by increasing its own capabilities and those of NATO. Thirdly, to achieve the degradation of the armed forces and the potential of Russia. Finally, to ensure the defeat of Russia in Ukraine, and this is achieved by creating a strategic and operational reserve to conduct offensive operations.
Bergen: what will it look like in practice?
Repass: it is necessary that the Americans, the French, the Poles, the British and the Germans create a Ukrainian brigade. These countries have enough military potential, so they will be able to form Ukrainian military forces, equip them and train them in their countries. So, five brigades in five operational sectors. It will take six to eight months. These five brigades, equipped with Western weapons, will fight in a Western way, have an integrated approach to air-ground combat when you have all the available means, including NATO-compatible tanks, air fire support and air defense.
Bergen: Five brigades isn't that much, is it?
Repass: no, not much, I think it's doable in the near future. There are up to eight thousand soldiers in a brigade, that is, there will be up to 40 thousand people in five brigades. I believe that Ukrainians will be able to find so many military personnel, even considering the state of emergency in the country.
Bergen: how would you describe the situation in the east and south now? Do Russians think they are winning?
Repass: Russia is methodically advancing both in the north and in the south. She is trying to fix the defending forces in the east and surround the Ukrainians, and then defeat them in the south. Besides, the Russians want to surround Nikolaev, sweep away its defenses, and then move to Odessa. They will not go to Odessa until they capture or destroy the forces around Nikolaev.
Bergen: why is Odessa so valuable?
Repass: because [its capture] will cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea. In addition, it is the gateway to Transnistria and Moldova.
Bergen: and what do you say about the rattling of nuclear weapons? Do you think this is just posturing?
Repass: Yes, mostly posturing. It would be one thing if Putin said that. It's another matter when Foreign Minister Lavrov talks about it. So I think that this is posturing on the part of Lavrov. According to their nuclear doctrine, they will use tactical nuclear weapons if they consider that Russia is in serious danger. This is exactly what Russia has made clear to the West.
Bergen: so the threshold is quite high?
Repass: Exactly.
Bergen: wars have their own logic. Alas, this conflict may last a whole year, or even two.
Repass: I'm afraid you're right there. It seems to me that this painful confrontation will last at least two years. But we cannot allow the matter to reach a dead end. If this ends, Putin will declare victory.
Author: Peter Bergen
The text is published with abbreviations