In connection with the incidents in Transnistria and the sudden check of the reaction forces in Belarus, a quite reasonable question arises: could the conflict in Ukraine spread to neighboring regions? To answer it, let's ask ourselves another question: who will benefit from it? Russia - certainly not. Because this tension is of a completely different level, completely different forces. But the most important thing is that on the final trajectory it will mean going to a big war with the NATO bloc.
Do NATO and the United States need such tension? At this stage, I'm sure it's not necessary either. Everyone in Washington and Brussels understands perfectly well that this is fraught with a nuclear conflict. However, at the tactical level, such a "spread" is undoubtedly in the hands of NATO. Because, as they believe, this will allow us to stretch, if you want, "smear" our forces.
As for the events in Transnistria, I think there was an attempt to test Russia for endurance. To see how Moscow will react to provocations, whether it will not immediately climb into that region - which NATO would very much like. NATO generals seem to be asleep and see our troops occupying a part of the country that is not a party to the conflict. And make full use of this fact to further discredit the Russian Federation at the international legal level.
But I very much doubt that NATO itself will enter the territory of Transnistria. It has its own small army - in my opinion, at least three brigades. They are not very well armed, but they will definitely resist an invasion of an unrecognized republic. Especially considering the mood of its population, which has traditionally followed a pro-Russian course for many years. Therefore, everything that is happening in this direction now looks like a kind of pinprick tactic. This is when the enemy, in this case Russia, is kept in suspense all the time.
Now, as for the sudden check of the reaction forces in Belarus. In my opinion, it was organized in response to the exercises that Poland and part of the NATO forces are currently conducting near the borders of Belarus. Could this provoke some kind of confrontation between Minsk and Warsaw or Brussels? I doubt it very much. NATO understands that Moscow and Minsk will act together militarily. And the conflict in Ukraine has already reached such a level that any projection of it outside this country will mean a real danger of a third World war. That is, a global nuclear collision. The West definitely does not want this. In Moscow, of course, too.
What role does Ukraine play in all these processes? In my opinion, none. Kiev is not a subject, so no one is interested in the opinion of this country. Ukraine has been acting directly on Washington's orders for a long time. She is simply unable to go beyond the boundaries indicated to her, to show some kind of independence. No one would let her.
Finally, a few words about the situation in Ukraine itself. We see that now there is a big battle for Donbass. The battles on both sides are characterized by the exertion of all forces. Slowly, but consistently, the Russian army and the DPR and LPR groups are solving their tasks. They "gnaw through" the enemy's well-fortified defenses, liberate all new settlements from the Ukrainian nationalists. No matter what they say in Kiev, there are no significant successes on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There are no serious counterattacks, let alone counterattacks by the Ukrainian army.
At the same time, the success of our offensive should not be overly exaggerated. The problem is that the entire territory of Donbass controlled by Kiev has been turned into a single defense strip over the past 8 years. As a matter of fact, the tactics of active defense that the Americans developed in the 80-90s of the last century, they are now using the hands of the AFU and the National Security Forces in Ukraine.
However, even the supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine is not able to radically change the situation in favor of Kiev. Two or three brigade sets of artillery systems, air defense systems, armored vehicles will not make the weather on the fronts. Moreover, the APU has big problems with personnel. There are almost no competent specialists left there. The army trained by NATO instructors and well-trained, with which Ukraine entered into battles, is no longer there. According to the prisoners, the personnel backbone of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Security Forces is now no more than 25-30 percent. Hence the question: who will be seated at the levers of NATO equipment? If it even reaches the front line in large volumes.
Prepared by Yuri Gavrilov
Vladislav Shurygin (member of the Izborsky Club)