Will the Ukrainian conflict become the "Vietnam of the XXI century" for the United States?
The author of the article, Shukan Gendai, believes that the United States in the struggle for its world hegemony may meet a "second Vietnam" in Ukraine. He points out that most countries do not support America in its adventure in Ukraine. Japan should carefully consider whether to follow the United States, or whether it should choose its own path to peace.
The whole world does not necessarily support the United States in Ukraine.
There are fierce disputes about the "Ukrainian conflict". Of course, in any democracy, defending different ideas and different positions is welcome. But as soon as some opinions acquire a dominant meaning and exclude others, thus becoming "unilaterally dominant", democracy necessarily suffers a crisis.
Today, most readers in Japan want "peace", not "war". They support the revision of article 9 of the Constitution, Japan's possession (or joint possession) of nuclear weapons and the allocation of 2% of GDP for defense spending. And all this in order to protect "peaceful Japan".
Therefore, when considering the conflict in Ukraine, the question of how exactly to protect our "peaceful Japan" becomes extremely important.
First of all, it should be recognized that the "Ukrainian conflict" is not just a "military clash between a weak Ukraine and a powerful Russia."
It should be considered as part of the "Second Cold War" between Western and non-Western countries, among the latter of which Russia, India and China should be mentioned first of all. In other words, the Ukrainian conflict is a "proxy war" between Western countries centered in the United States and non—Western countries represented primarily by Russia and China.
If we talk about the "proxy wars" in history, then the Vietnam War stands out among them. And the reasons for this war were not rooted in any considerations of "good" and "evil" and the like, but were purely and acutely ideological in nature. The United States fought for its hegemony in Vietnam.
In it, the Vietnamese people experienced the terrible fate of being a pawn in the titanic struggle of the great powers.
Recall that during the Vietnam War, it was often said in the world that Japan, where American military bases are located, could be bombed by "enemies of the United States" at any moment. But now the situation has not changed at all.
Moreover, it would not be at all surprising if today, when the Russian-Japanese negotiations on a peace treaty are stopped (although there was practically no prospect of their real progress), a Russian nuclear missile base would be created in the "northern territories" (although this is quite unlikely at the moment).
Most of the discussions in Japan about the Ukrainian conflict are conducted from the positions of outside observers, to whom its sparks do not directly reach. And they are conducted simultaneously and in a single vector: "this is a clash between a weak Ukraine and a strong Russia."
As you know, the Kishida government, following on the heels of the Biden administration, has taken a number of unprecedented and unusual measures for sanctions against Russia. This includes a ban on the import of energy coals, and the freezing of Russian assets in Japanese banks.
In addition, Japan also went to the termination of the peaceful dialogue with Russia (actually forcing the latter to do so). How can this be regarded? Only in the following way: Japan has created a crisis around itself in the sense of ensuring its security and ensuring peace for itself. Japan has become an obvious accomplice of the "Second Cold War" and one of its manifestations – the Ukrainian military conflict.
Will the tragedy of Vietnam happen again?
Vietnam was colonized by France in 1884 and was then called "French Indochina".
After the outbreak of World War II in June 1940, France capitulated, and in September of the same year, with the approval of the Vichy administration – the actual Nazi puppet, which actually recognized the French surrender, Japanese troops invaded French territory in Indochina.
The Second World War ended with the surrender of Japan in 1945, and a government headed by Ho Chi Minh was immediately established in Vietnam, proclaiming the country's independence. However, France was not going to liberate Vietnam and intended to colonize it again. Thus began the First Indochina War.
However, this attempt to re-colonize Vietnam by France ultimately failed. In fact, continuing it, the United States began bombing North Vietnam in February 1965.
At that time, the United States put forward the "fight against communism" as the reason for the outbreak of hostilities in Vietnam. But if you look closely at the history of Vietnam, then the basis of the then US policy was the frank goals of maintaining its hegemony in the world.
The history of Ukraine is little known in Japan, but I am familiar with the book "The Ukrainian conflict is Russia's Last Battle against the Crusaders" by Kazuo Yavata, a researcher at the Institute of Economics, of which I am a member.
By the way, crusaders in Western civilization are "holy beings", but, of course, they are perceived as "fiends of hell" in Islamic societies. It is known from history that the Crusaders committed terrible things, such as genocide. They killed everyone, including women and children.
And yet, has the conflict dragged on?
During the Vietnam War, American troops landed directly in this country and conducted large-scale military operations. The Soviet Union and Communist China, on the other hand, focused on helping North Vietnam with weapons and military materials (to avoid direct confrontation with the United States) and so-called "volunteer" support.
This "proxy war", during which there was no direct Soviet-American military confrontation, ended with the actual defeat of the United States due to the fall of Saigon in 1975. But the consequences of a decade-long battle, during which America ruthlessly destroyed North Vietnam, were terrible.
The average age of the entire Vietnamese population is now about 30 years old, which is very small compared to Japan, where the average age exceeds 50 years. Experts agree that one of the main reasons for this is the extraordinary reduction in the population of Vietnam due to the war with the United States.
As you know, President Zelensky signed the "Law on National Mobilization" on February 24, immediately after the start of the Russian military special operation. The law prohibits men aged 18 to 60 from leaving the country and prepares the population for "total war". Analysts fear that this law will multiply the victims among the Ukrainian population.
Therefore, in principle, an early peace is desirable in this conflict. But Western societies focused on the United States are incredibly enthusiastic about "raising their fists" by imposing anti-Russian sanctions and massive arms supplies to Ukraine. And there is no desire in their actions to restore peace in Ukraine.
As mentioned in the aforementioned book by Kazuo Yavata, "non-Western Europe" has deep historical ties with both Russia and Ukraine. Turkey, in particular, appears to be such a country. It could well become a catalyst and mediator in peace negotiations.
That is, we are talking about the fact that there are certain prospects that a "non-Western" dispute (Russia and Ukraine) can be resolved through the mediation of a "non-Western" player. Why, then, does the "Western world" not contribute to this, but continues to belligerently "swing their fists" in front of Russia?
Russia is not the only country that the United States has faced opposition to
There are many anti-American countries in the Islamic world. Their population in 2021 was about 1.9 billion people. In addition, about three billion more people now live in the huge triangle of Russia, India, and China. In total, the population of these two most powerful camps is about five billion. Let me remind you that the population of our planet today is just under eight billion people.
"The war on terrorism is the highest justice," the United States shook its fist recently. But after what happened in Afghanistan last year, the question arose in full growth: "Is America able to learn anything at all from the lessons of Vietnam, Iraq and its other wars?"
In contrast to the position that America took before World War II – "not to participate in the wars of other countries (as far as possible)" – the United States now seems "war-mad and addicted to them in the way drug addicts are addicted to drugs." Many Americans do not want war, but the US military-industrial complex is secretly doing everything to talk about wars in the country more and more.
An obsessive feature of American politics since the days of Pearl Harbor has been provoking its opponents to war. After all, this is exactly what happened in Hawaii in 1940, when the United States provoked Japan to attack.
Yes, although the United States is not militarily involved in the Ukrainian conflict with its troops now, but like the Vietnam war, this is a "US war".
The international order should not be built at the will of the United States
Many countries of the world are disappointed by the dominance of the United States. In many publications, including our Institute, it is stated that the "Western world" is not the only world on the planet. But as far as Japan is concerned, the analysis of its foreign policy suggests that Japanese politicians think only that there are only "American standards" and "American desires" in the world. President Biden condemned Putin's actions as "genocide," despite his many reservations. Moreover, he even informed in advance that there was "no reservation" in this assessment of his.
Is the United States really so committed to the principle of "justice"?
And then what about the massive "carpet" bombing of many Japanese cities by the United States during World War II? For example, with the infamous terrible Tokyo air raid, as a result of which tens and even hundreds of thousands of Japanese civilians, from infants to the elderly, were indiscriminately killed? And the outrageous inhuman experiment on people, when atomic bombs of various types were dropped twice on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, burning tens of thousands of people in a nuclear apocalypse?
Yes, it happened more than 75 years ago. However, in the Iraq war that began in 2003, thousands of people were killed due to unsubstantiated suspicions of the existence of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in Iraq, although it quickly became clear that Saddam Hussein did not have any WMD. However, this outrageous story is completely forgotten for the sake of the "convenience" of the United States.
In addition, the United States itself recognizes that many civilians have died at least as a result of many "US military interventions", and not just the war in Iraq.
Will France withdraw from NATO?
Even in Western Europe, France and others have already begun to say "no" to the "war of the United States" in Ukraine.
In the presidential election, Marine Le Pen, who took second place and represented the votes of about half of the French, said that although she condemns the Russian military special operation in Ukraine, she stands for a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian conflict and for a compromise between NATO and Russia. She also declares her position on France's withdrawal from NATO. There are many people in France who do not want to participate in the "American war".
In addition, from the point of view of economic sanctions, Europe depends on Russia in terms of energy supply based on natural gas, unlike the United States, which can be self-sufficient in terms of resources and energy. Even if European countries do not become a battlefield, if there is a shortage of energy for heating in Europe in winter, many "dead not on the fields of war" may appear.
We, the Japanese, need to think carefully about what kind of world we really want, and not make a mistake in our decision.
Author: Hiroshi Ohara – Executive Director of GINZAX Global Economy and Investment Study Group consulting company. Director of the Humanities Institute of Economics. For a long time he held senior positions in the Japanese branch of the French bank Credit Lyonnais. Actively engaged in analytical work. He is the editor-in-chief of the financial review "Securitization Simpo".