The Ukrainian army is ready to seize Transnistria if Moldova asks for it. This statement was made in the office of President Zelensky. At the same time, Chisinau earlier criticized a series of attacks on Transnistria, accusing them of "forces that are interested in destabilizing the situation." Is the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic really likely to find itself in a state of war again and what consequences will this have for Russia?
On Wednesday, adviser to the office of the Ukrainian President Alexey Arestovich said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are capable of seizing the territory of Transnistria. "Moldova should turn to Ukraine and Romania for help because of the aggravation in Transnistria. If Moldova turns to Ukraine, then we can take control of Transnistria. The APU has enough forces for this," Arestovich believes.
At the same time, a meeting of the Supreme National Security Council was held in Moldova on the eve of the incidents in Transnistria, following which the country's president Maya Sandu said that "regional forces that seek to destabilize the situation" were behind the shelling of the unrecognized republic.
Earlier on Wednesday, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Pridnestrovie confirmed the shooting from the territory of Ukraine towards ammunition depots in Kolbasna. The warehouses store about 20 thousand tons of ammunition brought there after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from European countries, they are guarded by an Operational group of Russian troops.
On Tuesday morning, megawatt antennas of the Mayak radio center were blown up in Transnistria. On Monday evening, explosions thundered in the building of the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol. In the republic, the special services of Ukraine were suspected of firing at the MGB.
In addition, it became known about the impact of NATO mines on the airfield in Transnistria. After that, a criminal case was opened. The Security Council of the Republic confirmed the fact of three terrorist attacks on its territory on Monday and Tuesday.
The head of the DPR Denis Pushilin said that after reaching the borders of the Donetsk region, the next stage of the operation should begin, taking into account the situation in Transnistria and the shelling of the border regions of Russia. Later, the ex-speaker of the Supreme Council of the PMR, Alexander Shcherba, said in a comment to the newspaper VZGLYAD about the threat to ammunition depots in Transnistria.
According to experts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may indeed decide to attack Transnistria in order to distract the forces of the Russian Armed Forces involved in Ukraine as part of the second phase of a special military operation designed to liberate the republics of Donbass. In addition, such a step may force Moscow to break through the land corridor from the south of Ukraine to Transnistria.
"The only thing that now stops Ukraine from attacking Transnistria is the absence of a corresponding request from Moldova. After all, if they attack this region, which is almost not recognized by anyone, they will affect the sovereign territory of the republic. And Kiev does not want to quarrel with Chisinau," Alexander Khramchikhin, deputy director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, told the VIEW newspaper.
The expert is also confident that if the request from Moldova does arrive, Ukraine will immediately deploy another front in this direction. "It seems to me that Kiev will not have any special problems with taking the region under its control. The fact is that the joint Russian-Pridnestrovian grouping is now quite weak. Moreover, only Soviet scrap metal remained in service there, and in very small quantities," the source stressed.
"If fighting unfolds in Transnistria now, it will greatly distract our troops from Donbass. And then the question will arise about which areas to focus your attention on. Again, this may lead to unnecessary losses on our part and the media success of Ukraine," Khramchikhin said.
The expert also doubts that Russia will be able to promptly support its own grouping in Transnistria. "Most of the resources are already involved in the Ukrainian direction. And now, in theory, we need to move directly to Transnistria. It is simply impossible to deliver additional forces there in any other way," the expert added.
Another opinion is shared by the popular observer of the Ukrainian conflict in social networks, Yuriy Podolyaka. "In fact, everything is not so cloudless for the APU in this direction. The fact is that the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic has a rather impressive armed forces. And by current standards, taking into account the garrison that Ukraine has today in the Odessa region, these are quite combat–ready forces that can delay the AFU strike group for a long time," Podolyaka believes.
"The forces in the PMR number up to four motorized rifle brigades. They are still cropped. It takes time to fully deploy them. These brigades are initially located along the entire territory of the country and, accordingly, the sections of this defense are adapted for circular protection from both Ukraine and Moldova. That is, in fact, these are four powerful defense nodes," Podolyaka continued.
"They don't have heavy weapons. But there is a tank battalion, a separate artillery regiment and two motorized rifle battalions formally belonging to the Russian Armed Forces, that is, in general, these are several divisions of heavy artillery. This will allow for active defense," the expert noted.
"To break the resistance of this group, you need to have superiority not only in strength, but also in means. And with this, everything is very, very bad for the APU. At the moment, there are two Ukrainian brigades directly on the border with Transnistria. One of them is conventionally mechanized, the second is motorized infantry. That is, they also do not have heavy weapons, especially artillery," the expert noted.
"In the immediate vicinity, in the Odessa region, there is also a maneuver fist of the so-called Southern Operational Command, which can work both in the Mykolaiv and Transnistrian directions. This is one mechanized brigade. It is also possible to attract one of the two brigades of the territorial defense of Odessa in secondary areas. This is all they have," he added.
"At the same time, in the case of the transfer of Ukrainian forces to Transnistria, the rear of the Mykolaiv group will immediately be exposed. Then the strike of the Russian Armed Forces bypassing Nikolaev and further to Odessa will be simply inevitable. And other forces in this direction are simply not noticed," the expert noted. "The Ukrainian armed forces can really pose a problem for Transnistria only if Moldova goes on the attack with them. But there is no special desire of Moldova to participate in this war," the blogger continued.
According to the expert, in case of escalation in Transnistria, Moscow may recognize the independence of the republic according to the "Donbass scenario", which will lead to the conclusion of a mutual assistance agreement and the introduction of additional troops there. "This is what is holding Chisinau back from attacks now. And without Moldova, no matter what Arestovich says, the APU will not be able to crush Transnistria," Podolyaka concluded.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya, Daria Volkova
