A retired American lieutenant colonel explained why Western heavy weapons will not save Ukraine.
On the portal 19FortyFive.com an article was published with a disappointing verdict for the AFU: "Western tanks, missiles and artillery will not save Ukraine." This opinion was expressed by Daniel L. Davis, a retired lieutenant colonel in the US Army, a veteran of the Iraqi and other military campaigns, who is now a senior researcher at the Defense Priorities organization.
The author immediately breaks the template according to which for the victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine it is simply necessary to quickly supply Ukraine with a large number of heavy weapons. There are several reasons why this scenario won't work.
Firstly, the situation at the front is such that practically all the armed forces of Ukraine are already involved in combat operations throughout the country.
Secondly, for maximum efficiency, the delivered equipment must be compatible with each other, have similar maintenance requirements and be simple enough to operate so that minimal training time is required. Ideally, this means that Ukraine should send weapons that it has been using for decades.
But an attempt to "graft" American howitzers, German tanks and British air defense systems to the Soviet weapons system will be problematic. At least because for the maintenance, repair and operation of each type of equipment, separate trained mechanics and separate types of ammunition will be required. No logistics system can adequately account for such a discrepancy.
Third, and most important: Ukraine will have to train crews and crews from scratch. As noted above, the entire bulk of the Ukrainian army is currently involved in hostilities. Kiev does not have the human resources to remove these troops from the front line and send them somewhere for training.
Meanwhile, training of fighters at each of the levels is required: tank crew, platoon, company, etc. All this will take a very long time.
For eight years, since 2014, the vast majority of APU training and operations took place in static conditions of trench warfare in the style of the First World War. Few officers and soldiers have experience commanding tank or infantry units in mobile operations. Although officers can be taught a lot, experience cannot be passed on, it needs to be accumulated over many years.
If this scenario is dismissed, Ukraine is tempted to act like a fire: gather all the forces as they arrive and throw them to extinguish the flames. Many will want to send every tank and artillery piece to the front as soon as they become available to increase the combat capability of the troops right now. But it just doesn't work that way. It is not just about tanks or rocket launchers, but about the presence of trained, disciplined troops who know what they are doing, working as a team striving for a single goal.
The only possible option that the expert sees here for Ukraine is to create combat units from scratch, out of contact with the front. But for this, in all likelihood, it will take from nine months to a year - and it is unlikely that the APU will be able to hold out for that long.
Oleg Koryakin
