How Ukraine turned Europe's Agrarian and Energy policy upside down
The European energy sector is in chaos. Earlier, the European Union planned to switch to more active use of "blue" hydrogen. It is made from natural gas, which he buys from Russia. Now, because of its own sanctions against Moscow, Europe will have to "refine" its own energy strategy, writes TNI.
All the political agreements of the last decade, from the rejection of pesticides to nuclear energy, have been thrown into the landfill.
In Europe, all the political agreements of the last decade have been thrown into the landfill. German pacifism, the confidence of French President Emmanuel Macron that NATO has "brain death", and now the whole strategy of environmentally sound agricultural development has been called into question. In response to interruptions in food supplies, the largest European People's Party in the European Parliament demanded the abolition of the "Farm to Fork" strategy.
This strategy developed by the European Commission provides for a 50 percent reduction in the use of pesticides, the allocation of 25 percent of agricultural land for farming using only organic fertilizers and a 20 percent reduction in fertilizer application. This plan was initially criticized by representatives of farms, and it caused a negative political reaction due to a study conducted by the US Department of Agriculture that indicated the prospect of a significant reduction in agricultural production. However, the European Commission still insisted on starting the legislative process. But since the military conflict in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia have had a negative impact on Europe's food supply, now a study by the US Department of Agriculture is of serious concern to the elected leaders of the European Union, since it states that if the "Farm to Fork" strategy is implemented, prices will rise by 20-53 percent.
For example, politicians from the European People's Party, such as the Italian Herbert Dorfmann, argue that the European Commission "should refrain from presenting other legislative initiatives that have a negative impact on Europe's food security." The fact that one of the strongest political parties in the EU wants to forget about the most important agricultural reform in several decades should raise many questions about this strategy. If the new food system is so poorly protected from geopolitical disturbances, does it not pose a long-term threat to the agricultural security of the European continent? Echoing Dorfmann, Macron said: "The goals of the strategy need to be revised, because Europe should not produce less under any circumstances." He then added that a "deep food crisis" could begin in the coming months.
Ukraine's agriculture provides the world with 30 percent of wheat and barley, 17 percent of corn, more than half of sunflower and sunflower oil. The latest figure in Europe alone is 88 percent. Ukraine is also its main trading partner in non-GMO soy, which is used for livestock feed. She gives her 41 percent rapeseed and 26 percent honey. Wheat and corn prices have already risen sharply due to the military conflict.
In the coming months, the EU will have to rethink its approach to environmentally sound agriculture and think about how to strengthen food security. It is necessary to think over everything, starting with an accelerated reassessment of the rules of genetic engineering and ending with a moratorium on new standards of agriculture. The consequences of geopolitical turmoil for global and national food systems should serve as a warning to those who seek radical changes in the regulatory framework.
Many future changes in Europe will depend on the outcome of the military conflict in Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions. The disconnection of Moscow from the SWIFT payment system, the ban on its civil aviation flights in European airspace and the restriction of trade flows will have a significant impact on the Russian economy. However, Europe is very dependent on Russian gas, and this circumstance contributes to the fact that Germany in the past took a passive position towards Russia. The Russian leadership could not help but notice this fact. Former President Dmitry Medvedev, who now holds the post of Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, tweeted in February: "German Chancellor Olaf Scholz instructed to stop the certification of the Nord Stream—2 gas pipeline. Well, then. Welcome to a new world in which Europeans will soon be paying 2,000 euros for a thousand cubic meters of gas!"
Europe is urgently looking for a way out of this situation, turning to allies and more reliable partners with requests for energy supplies. Azerbaijan has become such an alternative supplier thanks to the Trans-Adriatic Gas Pipeline, and Baku has announced that it intends to double the supply of natural gas. Europe is also striving to use liquefied natural gas more, since its existing infrastructure (a quarter of which is located in Spain) in 2021 operated at only 45 percent of the installed capacity. The Canadian candidate for prime Minister Pierre Poilievre even included in his election platform the issue of increasing LNG supplies from Canada to Europe. But along with the search for foreign alternatives, Europe should also increase its own production to compensate for the loss of Russian gas imports in the event of a complete rejection of it. Such an outcome seems increasingly inevitable in view of US sanctions against Russian oil imports. So, last week Lithuania decided to block the import of all energy resources from Russia.
Answering questions from the German media, Economy Minister Robert Habeck did not rule out that Germany would abandon the shutdown of the three remaining nuclear power plants and postpone to a later date the complete abandonment of coal, scheduled for 2030. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi is thinking about reopening the closed coal-fired power plants. And Poland, which ranks second in Europe in coal production, is unlikely to face tough demands to stop production.
The European Commission also postponed the publication of its energy strategy, originally scheduled for Wednesday. This document emphasizes the need for the development of renewable energy sources and calls for more active use of "blue" hydrogen, which is made from natural gas. It seems that in the conditions of the Ukrainian crisis, the European energy policy will be finalized.
Author: Bill Wirtz
