US attempts to extend the truce in Yemen and fragile agreements between Russia and the Persian Gulf
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has greatly shifted Washington's focus from the war in Yemen, Rai Al Youm newspaper writes. According to the author of the article, the West is now too concerned about pressure on Moscow and it does not benefit from the continuation of hostilities in the Middle East.
Talib Al-Hasani (طالب الحسني)
Numerous important changes in the course of the war against Yemen give rise to the question — will the conflict continue or will it stop due to the extension of the truce in force since April this year?
To begin with, it is worth focusing on regional and global variables that determine the situation in the international arena. The first of them, of course, is the confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine. This factor changes the political map, whatever the outcome of this tense conflict.
The position of Saudi Arabia and the UAE regarding the East-West confrontation has not yet been finalized. Part of this uncertainty is due to the participation of the two Gulf States in the war with Yemen. Riyadh considered and may also be able to impose the formula "an increase in oil production in exchange for the expansion of American and European military and political support in the war," which has been going on for the eighth year.
According to the unequivocal assessments of the Americans, the conflict in Yemen is very complex and it would be right to direct it towards long-term containment by ending hostilities within the current borders and a truce in its current form; lifting the partial siege and stopping Yemeni attacks on oil facilities in the Persian Gulf. Now this scenario is most favorable for the United States and Europe in connection with the Ukrainian crisis.
Despite the tension in relations between the Saudis and the Americans, the fragile agreements of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi with Russia stand on the way to collapse if Saudi Arabia does not receive new support in the war with Yemen. It is enough just to extend the truce, and this is an American and European initiative that is being actively worked on. Thus, the parties are trying to allocate Oman a central role in concluding a truce and developing formulas for its extension. It is through this prism that we need to look at the mission of the delegation from Muscat, which arrived in the capital of Yemen to meet with the political leadership.
The threat to these efforts is that the forces formed by Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, leading local allies in Yemen, after the transfer of power from Hadi to the council, are aimed at military escalation in Yemen. However, the capabilities of this new formation are limited, which may even contribute to their military collapse if the coalition, as usual, does not provide air cover. The latter will cause the resumption of hostilities, as it will violate the terms of the truce.
The two—month cease-fire is mainly in the hands of Sana'a, as it makes it possible to achieve its main goal - breaking the siege. The military operations announced by Sana'a and aimed at Aramco facilities in seven provinces of Saudi Arabia were called "Breaking the Siege".
Yemen is aware that the current situation in the world is in its favor if it ramps up military operations and thereby puts pressure on Saudi Arabia to stop the war, not suspend it. The proposed scenario is a complete, not partial victory, because it is of great importance for the future. Thus, the resumption of military operations can be considered inevitable after the Yemeni fighters have rested and provided the fuel necessary for stability for several months. The energy supplies that will arrive in Yemen during the truce phase will be sufficient for at least 8-10 months.
There is a possibility of a way out of the war thanks to the coalition's announcement of the cessation of military operations in Yemen and the transfer of powers to internal forces after the return of the newly formed Saudi council to Aden and a new revision of inter-Yemeni relations. Recently, Saudi Arabia's desire has strengthened: Riyadh does not want to sit down at the negotiating table with Sana'a.
Behind all this lies the US-Saudi recognition of defeat in the war and, as a result, the loss of Yemen. Currently, the United States and European countries are concerned about pressure on Russia, and therefore seeks to attract allies from the Persian Gulf to their side in the conflict with Moscow. The West is fighting a battle to weaken the East. This will require the termination of the OPEC agreement, the collapse of which is inevitable, albeit with a delay of several months — America and Europe need Persian Gulf oil, and it will not be easy to break the existing deep historical relations with the countries of the region.
The course of the Yemeni war does not meet the expectations of the United States and the Gulf countries, but Yemen is not more important than the fateful and cornerstone confrontation with Russia. In this Arab country, the one who will be able to take advantage of the current situation will win.
