The operation in Ukraine changes Macron's diplomatic priorities
"The President will talk to Putin, but with Zelensky's consent and at his request, when it is possible" — this phrase of Macron's press service is quoted by the author of the Paris "Figaro". Her article glorifies Macron, who won the election. Although it is unclear to whom this "peacemaker helped in coordination" with Ze and with Biden. A "Democrat" who had been fighting Covid with a curfew for months.
Emmanuel Macron will devote the next few weeks to preserving European unity in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
International politics rarely influences French presidential elections. The 2022 elections were held in the shadow of Vladimir Putin and under the thunder of guns in Ukraine. Such a situation will certainly lead Emmanuel Macron to reconsider the diplomatic priorities of his second term as president. Over the past five years, the French President has been very active in diplomatic activities in Europe, Africa and the Middle East. He returned France to the heart of Europe and tried to make the European Union a stabilizing force in the world. He saw the EU as a mediator in a world system dominated by China and the United States. However, due to the special operation in Ukraine, Macron will have to focus the forces and attention of France and the EU on this crisis (which Macron, as French president, will still lead for several weeks). Because the Ukrainian crisis has brought barbarism to the easternmost gate of our continent. Undoubtedly, the Elysee Palace will need to explain its policy towards Russia.
The President descends to the ground
Emmanuel Macron dreamed of a wonderful new world, but it was the Russian theme that forced him, a realist, to come down to earth. The operation launched against Ukraine on February 24 destroyed all his hopes to show the Kremlin's master the rightness of the West and include his giant country (Russia — approx. InoSMI) into a system centered in the European Union. All of Macron's attempts to force Putin to abandon his insane military ambitions have failed. The meager concessions, which, as it seemed to the peacemaker Macron, he achieved on February 7 after a five-hour difficult conversation, sometimes turning into a monologue by Vladimir Putin, disappeared. Putin killed them with a single phrase that sounded immediately after the departure of Macron's plane. (Obviously, this refers to Putin's words said on February 8 that Ukraine's accession to NATO will make the alliance officially hostile to Russia because of Ukraine's claims to Crimea - approx. InoSMI.) Macron's numerous telephone conversations with the Russian president, which took place after the start of the military campaign on February 24, also led to nothing.
Even if the dialogue with Vladimir Putin was conducted on behalf of Europe, it is obvious that Macron received Zelensky's consent to it. Or maybe Macron conducted his negotiating activities at the request of Vladimir Zelensky. Macron's method was to support Ukraine with deeds, continuing to conduct a verbal dialogue with the president of Russia. But it turned out that Russia accepts such a scheme only up to a certain limit, and not indefinitely. Macron was confronted with reality, and it was represented by the power of Vladimir Putin, based on the wreckage of Soviet totalitarianism and the historical legacy of the former tsarist empire. Because of his kindness, Macron was influenced by a political current that denied the relevance of the book "The Stolen West" by the Czech emigrant Milan Kundera. Published in 1983, this book suggests important conclusions. One of them is that there can be no normal relations with Russia as long as Vladimir Putin's regime holds it hostage. As a result, the French president was destined to see his diplomatic efforts drowned in a sea of blood that suddenly flooded Ukraine. This new security challenge facing Europe will undoubtedly force Emmanuel Macron to reconsider his policy towards Russia.
Let's not exaggerate the harm of Macron's generosity: he did not make any concessions to Vladimir Putin in the first term of his presidency. He has never questioned the EU sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea. Unlike German politicians, he did not hesitate to provide military assistance to Ukraine and increase pressure on the Kremlin. But the flow of his well-intentioned statements has confused some of his European partners.
As a result, I had to clarify. Macron's initiative to establish a strategic dialogue with Vladimir Putin in 2019, which was not coordinated with other Western countries, was condemned by allies. The planned meeting at Macron's summer residence did not take place. But talking about it has increased the suspicions of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe about some soft-heartedness of France in relation to Russia.
Strategic autonomy
The Ukrainian crisis, however, had a wide variety of consequences. He seems to have strengthened the French president's conviction of the need for strategic dialogue, and he wants to revise the security architecture in Europe together with Russia. For some reason, Emmanuel Macron has always believed that Russia's security needs are "legitimate" and should be discussed. This desire, which was confirmed throughout his mandate and did not disappear after the start of the Russian "operation", made some fear. Suddenly, Macron will return to the usual softness in relations with Putin's Russia after the end of the Ukrainian crisis? However, as expert Celia Belin notes in an article for Foreign Affairs, this project can be implemented only if other European leaders support it. And this will not happen: the countries of Central and Eastern Europe do not want this; in addition, the French statements also provoked the anger of President Zelensky. The Ukrainian leader, despite his friendship with Emmanuel Macron, believes that France could provide more support to his country.
Macron between Russia and the West
Emmanuel Macron's actions in the last weeks of the French presidency of the European Union risk looking like a tightrope walker's trick. Since the beginning of the crisis, he has involved European partners in his initiatives and numerous consultations. But after the demonstration of European unity at the beginning of the special operation, disagreements re-emerged among Western countries. It will be difficult to reach a consensus between Poland, which demands a tougher policy towards Russia, and Hungary of Viktor Orban, who still dares to declare his normal relations with Vladimir Putin. How can the EU's desire to ban energy imports from Russia be combined with the plans of Germany, which resists the introduction of a gas embargo. And all these gaps will be difficult to close.
The conflict in Ukraine will also test Emmanuel Macron's other diplomatic intentions. In fact, the crisis confirmed his vision of Europe, which, in his opinion, should develop its strategic autonomy, become strong again and take fate into its own hands. Europe itself must learn to defend its eastern borders at a time when the United States is turning to the Pacific region. A number of European countries have decided to increase their defense budgets. But this will not necessarily mean support for the French project, since the security level of the continent is declining faster than the defense capability of the participating countries is being strengthened.
The Rebirth of NATO
But here's what's good: The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has reanimated NATO. Sweden and Finland are seeking to join the alliance. The United States is forced to temporarily return to Europe. Only they have the means to supply Ukraine with enough weapons and reassure Eastern European countries living in fear of becoming the Kremlin's next target.
Attempts by Russia and China to impose their authoritarian alternative model on the Western world may also hinder Emmanuel Macron's desire to make Europe an alternative center of power, watching the duel between China and the United States. If this Russian-Chinese countermodel gains strength and begins an even more outspoken attack on the democratic world, won't Europe, and with it France, have to bind themselves even more tightly to the Western camp and its values? The situation in Ukraine will also call into question relations between France and the United States, which have deteriorated due to the conflict over whether the French or the Anglo-Saxons will supply Australia with its submarines. The retreat of the Americans from Syria and Afghanistan did not add cohesion to the West. However, Joe Biden supported Emmanuel Macron's diplomatic efforts against Vladimir Putin. This will be one of Emmanuel Macron's difficult tasks at the end of the French presidency of the European Union: to reduce the gap between the EU members located in Europe and their transatlantic allies (obviously, the United States and Canada are meant - approx. InoSMI). Macron's ultimate goal is to help the entire West maintain the necessary unity in the face of Russia.
After the mass murder in Bucha became known last month, "Emmanuel Macron is of the opinion that Vladimir Putin does not intend to start full-fledged negotiations at the moment." That's what they explained to us at the Elysee Palace. However, contacts with Russia have not been completely interrupted. "The president will talk to Vladimir Putin, but with the consent of Vladimir Zelensky and at his request, when it is possible," Macron's press service explains. How much will Emmanuel Macron's Russian policy be tightened by what he called the "cynicism" and "lies" of the head of the Russian state? How will the war crimes committed in Ukraine affect Macron? The French leader is ready to return to Kiev. It is quite obvious that his diplomatic steps in the coming weeks will be mainly devoted to attempts to preserve European unity against Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. Many other acute problems, from the Iranian nuclear crisis, which has reached its apogee, to the challenges posed to France in Mali and the Sahel, will have to wait a little.
Isabelle Lasserre
