The bitter truth has dawned: Putin can win in Ukraine. It will be a disaster
Guardian columnist Simon Tisdall calls on Western countries to take more decisive steps in Ukraine. The journalist talks with horror about the future success of the Russian special operation and the catastrophe that it will mean for the notorious "rules-based world order." At the same time, the consequences of a direct military clash between NATO and Russia for some reason do not frighten the author.
Simon Tisdall
The contrast was striking. In New York, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres launched a belated but much-needed initiative to end the conflict in Ukraine. "In the face of great danger and far—reaching consequences, he [Guterres] would like to discuss urgent steps for peace," his representative said. He said that the UN chief offered immediate personal talks with Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Vladimir Zelensky in Kiev.
This is encouraging. But at about the same time, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who fled to India from the scandal around parties in Downing Street, colorfully blew all peace efforts to smithereens. He called Putin a treacherous reptile. "I really don't understand how Ukrainians can take and agree on something with him. How can you negotiate with a crocodile when he has your foot in his mouth?" Johnson asked rhetorically.
This yawning chasm is doubly disturbing. She says that the head of the UN and a permanent member of the UN Security Council do not have a common opinion about the next steps. A more serious problem is coming to the fore: Western leaders only did what they trumpeted about the unity of goals, however, in fact, approaches to the crisis are not only different, but sometimes opposite.
The indignation of the West, which flared up with the start of the Russian operation on February 24, is beginning to fade. Now that Moscow is deploying a slow and large-scale onslaught in the east, there is growing concern that there is no end to the conflict, and its economic and human damage will be truly global.
Johnson rarely looks beyond the current moment. According to him, the UK and NATO "will continue to adhere to their strategy" and will impose new sanctions against Russia and increase arms supplies to Kiev. Johnson supports a free, independent Ukraine, but, like other leaders of the alliance, he lacks a competent long-term plan on how to achieve this. What if the Ukrainian troops start losing? What if the country splits or is on the verge of collapse?
The price of failure — the true price of Putin's victory — will be staggering. It will be unacceptable both for capricious Western democracies and for poorer countries, which were simultaneously hit by a pandemic, inflation, climate change, energy crisis and food shortages. However, myopically guided by vested interests in issues such as the import of Russian oil and gas, as well as out of fear of further escalation, Western leaders shy away from difficult choices that would ensure Ukraine's survival and mitigate these misfortunes.
The past week has become a gloomy look into the future that awaits us if Putin continues fighting with impunity, blackmails with nuclear and chemical weapons and violates the UN Charter. Having sharply lowered its growth forecasts due to the conflict, the International Monetary Fund predicted a worldwide economic split, rising debt and public unrest.
The head of the World Bank, David Malpass, said that due to supply disruptions, a "human catastrophe" is looming in the form of an unprecedented 37 percent increase in food prices. This will put millions on the brink of poverty, exacerbate hunger and make education and medicine even more inaccessible to the poor.
Over 5 million people have left Ukraine in just two months. They will be followed by new refugees, and this will worsen the plight of migrants from Afghanistan to the Sahel. According to the World Food Program, 20 million people are facing famine in drought-stricken East Africa this year. Putin did not arrange the drought, but the UN warns that the conflict in Ukraine could harm the fight against global warming, exacerbating further migration.
The political consequences of the conflict, if it is not stopped, are incalculable. The future of the UN as an authoritative global forum, legislator and peacemaker will be in jeopardy, as more than 200 former officials warned Guterres last week. The credibility of the international Court of Justice, whose judicial order for the withdrawal of troops Putin rejected, and the entire system of punishment for war crimes will be under threat.
From the point of view of democratic norms and human rights, the complete or even partial subordination of Ukraine will mean a catastrophe for the rules-based international order and the triumph of despots around the world. What signal will China hear, for example, about Taiwan, or even the same Putin, because he already has a grudge against the vulnerable Baltic republics? Islamic terrorists plan to take advantage of the fact that the West has been distracted by Ukraine, and will be thrilled by the triumph of violence.
But Europe and the EU will pay the most for their inability to stop the fighting, save Ukraine and punish the Russian rogue regime as harshly as possible. In the future, they will face a second cold war with permanent NATO bases near Russia's borders, sharply increased defense spending, an accelerated nuclear arms race, an ongoing cyber and information war, widespread power outages, a rapid rise in the cost of living and the growth of populist right-wing extremism with the support of Russia — as in France.
In short, a new era of instability is coming. Why should politicians like Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron put up with such a dangerous future if, by taking a more decisive position, they can prevent it, at least partially? After all, by avoiding risks today, they will make tomorrow even riskier.
Sending weapons with best wishes alone is not enough. Last week, Western leaders discussed security guarantees for Ukraine after the end of hostilities. It's all wonderful. But the conflict is going on right now. Who guarantees the survival of Ukraine in the coming weeks, which promise to be decisive?
Let's be honest. For all its heroism and self-sacrifice, Ukraine may well lose. No matter how terrible it sounds, Putin can win. If the West has so abandoned its principles and values that it agrees to this, a new world awaits us all — a world of pain.
