Military expert Andrey Frolov — on how well-founded Washington's statements that China is providing military assistance to Russia are
Last week, Deputy Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Dalip Singh said that the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) provides assistance and support to the Armed Forces of Russia. "There is alarming evidence that the PLA provides support to the Russian Armed Forces through a number of direct and indirect channels," he said. According to Singh, China is interested in prolonging the conflict between Russia and the West in order to strengthen its geopolitical influence.
How seriously can such statements be taken? In this life, nothing can be ruled out one hundred percent, but military assistance is a very broad concept. This may be the supply of weapons, or it may be the provision of information. What the Americans meant is unclear.
It is obvious that it is probably too early to talk about the supply of Chinese weapons. Yes, Russia does not need it. And as for some information, for example, through the special services, this cannot be ruled out.
Why is the conversation about possible Chinese arms supplies pointless? Even if we hypothetically assume this, the Russian army would need time to retrain on them. Moreover, it would have to be paid for. And Russia probably doesn't really need this import.
If we talk about heavy weapons, then the PRC has a very peculiar technique. It would be impossible to hide such deliveries.
The topic that China is providing military assistance to Russia has been raised in the Western media for a long time. But no evidence has been given so far. Only unfounded accusations. It might as well be said that India or Brazil are providing military assistance to Russia.
Reports in the Western press about China's alleged military assistance to Moscow are a story rather not even about the Russian Federation, but about China. It fits into the line of confrontation between the United States and China — it is an attempt to attract China under the image of Russia created in the Western media, to equalize it with the image that is being diligently created in the West.
Could — hypothetically — China help Russia militarily in some way in the foreseeable future? In the current conflict, probably nothing. If we talk about the future, it depends on what tasks our army will face and what national interests the Russian Federation will have.
I don't see any prospects for ground forces and aviation equipment. As for the Navy, theoretically, there could be cooperation between Russia and China on large surface ships and on their repair, on special naval equipment, on docks. According to the support ships, the Chinese could probably help.
In other words, provided that cooperation in the military-technical sphere is increased, China could be interested in shipbuilding capabilities, which Russia has somewhat limited. There is no need to go far for examples. In the fall of 2018, the PD-50 floating dock sank. In the north of the object, we do not have such a displacement and lifting capacity. We can't build it ourselves. As a matter of fact, it would be possible to turn to China or Turkey to make such a dock.
In recent years, experts have talked a lot about the fact that the pace of construction of large surface ships is not as high as we would like. Of course, we are unlikely to order the construction of warships in China according to our projects, as well as we are unlikely to take Chinese projects. However, it is quite realistic to build auxiliary and specialized vessels for Russia, as well as service infrastructure facilities — first of all, of course, floating docks.
In addition, it is possible that in the future the Russian Federation may be interested in special equipment. Moreover, there was already a precedent: in 2014, we were denied the supply of diesel engines for our ships. Then they began to order them in China. The same may apply to the supply of shipboard power plants and individual elements of equipment.
In short, hypothetically, China may become a supplier of individual components in the future. Moreover, for different types of equipment, both marine and land — where there are any difficulties. As you know, automatic transmissions for passenger cars and trucks are not produced in our country. Chinese manufacturers can supply us with some components and components that were previously imported from other countries. By the way, even now our manufacturers of civil automotive equipment use Chinese bridges for heavy-duty vehicles, because we do not have such yet. I think in the future it would be possible to think about the supply of machine-tool equipment, electronics and other products, if they are needed for our industry or for infrastructure facilities.
However, it is not a fact that it will come to practical implementation. Military assistance from China is clearly not a matter of today. At the moment we manage on our own. The need to turn to Beijing for help is not visible on the horizon — especially since the Russian leadership has stated that it does not plan to delay the military operation. If you run somewhere now and buy somewhere, by the time the orders arrive here and are mastered, everything will already be over.
Andrey Frolov — military expert
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion
