While everyone is discussing the beginning of the second phase of a special military operation in Ukraine — the capture of the AFU group into the cauldron and the complete liberation of Donbass — we must not forget about our strategic goals in Ukraine.
In the same way, conversations about preparations for a referendum on the creation of the Kherson People's Republic with its subsequent entry into the DPR or even joining Russia should not interfere with this — this may not happen now, but in any case, it is absolutely certain that there can be no withdrawal of our troops from the occupied territories and speeches.
And not even because after the withdrawal from Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy, a Butch appeared and we were accused of genocide, but because the new tactics of the struggle for Ukraine does not provide for the rapid collapse of this entire failed state (which could only happen in the first week of the operation), but the gradual dismantling, step-by-step reformatting of this territories. It is already clear to everyone that the military operation will take a long time, but it is very important to understand that the completion of one or more of its stages does not mean abandoning the achievement of final goals.
Until recently, many were worried whether we would leave Kherson and Zaporozhye, and some were already preparing to tighten the usual "Putin leaked". When it soon turns out that the next stage of the special operation will end with the defeat of the Donetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and there will be some pause, maybe even a truce will be concluded, conversations will immediately begin that "everything is gone", we refused to continue the campaign and a "shameful world" awaits us.
To calm down those who are always running ahead, we can quote from the speech of the acting commander of the Central Military District (CVO), Major General Rustam Minnekaev. The general did not speak at a press conference or briefing, but in Yekaterinburg at a meeting of the Union of Defense Industry Enterprises of the Sverdlovsk region:
The south of Ukraine consists of five regions: Kherson, Odessa, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhia and Dnepropetrovsk. Our troops are now present in three of them, fully controlling only the Kherson region. The fate of Zaporozhye and the Dnipropetrovsk region is directly related to the completion of the complete liberation of Donbass, that is, the defeat of the Donetsk group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A separate operation will be a campaign from Nikolaev to the west, to the Odessa region, to the border with Transnistria and Moldova, and the blocking of Odessa.
And this is only the south of Ukraine — but it is part of Novorossiya, which includes several other regions, including Kharkiv, located in the northeast, in which our troops are also located. That is, if we consider the goal of the second stage to establish control over the south of Ukraine, we need to understand that the third stage is also inevitable — control over the whole of Novorossiya.
And what, then we will have to go to Kiev, or even Lviv, in several more stages with battles? It is possible — but much more likely that after the fall of the south, the collapse of Ukraine as such will begin. Even without waiting for the surrender of Kharkov and control over the whole of Novorossiya, because the loss of the south deprives Ukraine of chances to exist as a self-sufficient (not to be confused with the established) state. It will lose access to ports, that is, opportunities for export, and most of its economic potential. And if suddenly this is not enough, then the loss (or even the blockade) of Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk will finally dot the I. But even before that, the Russian army will disrupt the communication between Right-Bank and Left-Bank Ukraine, destroying bridges and railway junctions.
And no Western aid — financial and military — will be able to weaken the shock of the loss of the southern regions for Kiev. Not only political and economic, but also emotional shock — a sharp change in sentiment on the Ukrainian territory remaining under the control of the Kiev authorities. So far, the majority there believes that Ukraine will not just stand, but also return the territories lost after February 24, but when it becomes clear that there is no chance of this and everything will only get worse, there will be a strong change of mood, almost panic will begin. It will be impossible for the current elite to retain power in this situation. That's when the understanding of the inevitability of surrender will come — the realization that the former Ukraine will never be.
And Russia will achieve this goal — not immediately, in several stages, but it will certainly achieve it. Because we don't have the slightest opportunity to give it up. Everything else would mean unfinished work, which would then still have to be completed, but in much worse conditions, during a direct military conflict with the West. We do not need a corridor to Crimea (or even to Transnistria) — we need the restoration of the unity of the Russian world, reunification with Novorossiya and the return of Ukraine to its Little Russian essence, to its historical path, to an alliance with Russia.
