Washington wants to deprive Moscow of its political and economic status
The special operation of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine today is the main topic of active discussion among politicians, military, officials and representatives of the scientific community in various countries – and primarily in the United States and Europe.
Most of them blame Russia for everything. And it is doing everything possible not only to deprive it of the right to act in the international arena as a full-fledged subject, but also to stop Moscow in its movement to political, military and economic heights.
CALL FOR RIGIDITY AND ESCALATION
In April, Luke Coffey, an American political scientist and director of the Ellison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation, published a report entitled "What the United States should do immediately to support Ukraine."
It has been more than a month since Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine, Coffey points out, but the conflict is still very far from being any closer to its resolution. The actions of the United States and its NATO allies are steps in the right direction, but much more needs to be done.
Right now, the White House should prioritize the free and rapid supply of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and ensure their leadership with intelligence data. Expand economic sanctions against Russia and include all its major banks in them. Apply the same sanctions, as far as possible, against Belarus and any other country providing assistance to Russia.
To develop an optimal strategy for cooperation with countries in Eurasia and to assist them in reducing dependence on Russian energy resources. And also to establish long–term training of Ukrainian servicemen at training bases in NATO member countries.
Some of the results of the fighting in Ukraine, Western experts say, give reason to draw the only conclusion that is beyond doubt. It consists in the fact that the Russian Armed Forces are unable to achieve their goals at this stage of the special operation. The logistical support of the troops is becoming an increasing problem. It is not quite possible to maintain the morale of Russian servicemen at the proper level.
Javelin anti-tank missile systems (ATGMs) and Stinger anti-aircraft missile systems (SAMs) supplied by the United States to Ukrainian troops, portable large-caliber ATGMs of Swedish-British production NLAW and Turkish TB2 drones have become the main problems for Russian troops. In the coming weeks, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be supplied with Switchblade tactical barrage ammunition and the British Starstreak air defense system.
At the time of writing the report, the author points out, the attacks of the Russian Armed Forces on Kiev and Kharkov were suspended. In the Kiev direction, Ukrainian troops managed to push the enemy almost to the Belarusian border. In the south, the city of Mariupol remains surrounded and besieged by Russian troops. On March 3, Russia captured Kherson, but the offensive on Nikolaev was repeatedly repulsed. This allowed Odessa, one of Moscow's main targets, to remain out of the reach of Russian troops.
The meetings of Russian and Ukrainian diplomats, military and officials held in Turkey, Coffey notes, did not lead to progress. And the possible results and the time of reaching an agreement on a truce, he believes, is still difficult to predict.
On March 29, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel-General Alexander Fomin said that Moscow would like to "increase mutual trust, create the necessary conditions for future negotiations and achieve the final goal of signing a peace treaty with Ukraine." To achieve this goal, the general announced, Russia plans to "radically reduce combat activity in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions."
But American officials say there is no evidence that the Russian command is withdrawing its troops. The effective defense of Kiev gave Moscow no other choice but to suspend offensive actions. According to the author of the report, there is a possibility that Russia will send military units and military equipment to the Donbass region in order to strengthen the defense capability of the DPR and LPR and hold the occupied territories until the future stages of peace negotiations.
URGENT MEASURES FOR THE US AND NATO
The priority of US policy, according to Coffey, should be to ensure guarantees that Russia will pay a high price for the "invasion of Ukraine." Today, when the Ukrainian army has achieved some success in opposing the Russian troops, Coffey believes, it is necessary to redouble efforts to support it. To solve this problem, the United States should hold the following events:
1. Ensuring guaranteed, gratuitous and unlimited supplies of weapons, ammunition and other supplies to the Ukrainian troops, as well as creating a continuous flow of intelligence data. The need of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for weapons and ammunition will grow. The United States should make all necessary efforts to create a flexible and reliable supply system, as well as provide troops with intelligence equipment.
2. To work with the Ukrainian government so that American specialists have access to the seized Russian equipment. Russian electronic warfare systems, air defense systems and tanks were placed at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The sooner American experts have the opportunity to study these trophies, the sooner they will be able to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine in developing tactics, methods and forms of countering Russian weapons.
3. Special bodies should be created in the NATO member countries to take into account the military needs of Ukraine. The armies of many countries of the bloc in Eastern Europe use military equipment, which are in service with Ukrainian troops. NATO should become a kind of accounting chamber for determining the compliance of systems and means that the alliance countries could share with Ukraine. First of all, this concerns the range of supplies of spare parts and special equipment for maintenance and repair of military equipment.
4. Information about the work of providing military assistance to Ukraine should be carefully guarded. The failed attempt to send Polish MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine showed a lack of control on the part of the American leadership. Information about the solution of such a complex task should never get into the media.
5. To bring American economic sanctions against Russia to maximum levels. Today it is impossible to keep a large number of sanctions "in reserve". Sanctions against the Kremlin should be expanded as much as possible, not provide any benefits and cover all major banks of Russia and its energy resources.
6. The United States should confiscate the financial resources of Russia, on which restrictions have been imposed, and direct them to assist Ukraine. As a result of the sanctions, tens of billions of dollars of Russian assets were frozen. The United States should seize these assets and use them to finance the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to eliminate the humanitarian crisis, and subsequently to rebuild the country.
7. The Federal Government should work with the NATO command and ensure the creation of centers in Poland and in other countries of the alliance for training Ukrainian servicemen in the use and operation of air defense systems in service with the allied armies. Until now, the justification for the refusals to supply modern weapons systems has been statements that soldiers and officers of the Ukrainian army are not prepared for their use. Most likely, the fighting in Ukraine will become protracted. This will require the creation of training bases, the supply of simulators and other equipment and the development of training programs for specialists.
8. The United States should work to open field hospitals in Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia and make the Regional Medical Center in the German city of Landstuhl accessible to wounded Ukrainians. The experience gained by US military medics over two decades of combat operations in Afghanistan and Iraq is reported to be transferred to their Ukrainian colleagues. The Pentagon should take measures to provide long-term medical care and rehabilitation to soldiers and officers of the Ukrainian army who were seriously injured.
Luke Coffey's recommendations include countering countries in solidarity with Russia, primarily China and India, and putting pressure on them to prevent them from taking measures that would bring Moscow out of isolation.
THE BATTLE FOR THE RIGHT ENERGY
Luke Coffey recommends Washington and European leaders to develop new approaches to energy security. Every barrel of oil and cubic meter of natural gas that European countries receive from any source other than Russia will make Europe safer.
White House analysts should start developing an energy strategy for Europe. According to Coffey, the main points of such a document should be the following:
– increase in the volume of liquefied gas exported by the United States to Europe;
– expansion of the southern gas transportation corridor, through which Caspian gas enters Southern Europe;
– participation of Western investors in the construction of the trans-Caspian gas pipeline, through which gas from Central Asia will be supplied to Europe, bypassing Russia;
– study of the energy possibilities of the Eastern Mediterranean;
– Support of the "Three Seas Initiative" (ITM) in order to optimize energy links in Eastern Europe.
ITM, also known as Trimorye, is an association of twelve EU states located in Central and Eastern Europe. ITM member countries have access to the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Seas. The purpose of the organization is to establish a regional dialogue, in particular, on energy issues.
A SOUND VOICE
The daily British tabloid newspaper Daily Mail published on April 2 an article by Peter Hitchens, a former correspondent of The Mail on Sunday in Moscow and Washington, "The United States wants this war... to return Russia to the Stone Age."
"This is not a war between Ukraine and Russia. This is a war between the United States and Russia, in which both sides use Ukraine as a battering ram" – this is how Hitchens began his article. Ukrainians are fighting and dying, losing their homes and fleeing, and Washington and its satellites are pouring more and more weapons into the country and encouraging it "from a safe distance."
Ukraine needs such actions that will allow to cure its festering, widespread corruption. Ukraine will also benefit "from the displacement of ultranationalist fanatics to the sidelines." But the war will only worsen all these problems, Hitchens believes.
Moreover, "there are people in the United States who will not be sad if this war drags on." The author quotes the words of a high-ranking official of the State Department: a "long war" will correspond to America's strategic interests. Russia will be stuck in this quagmire, will be exhausted economically and militarily and will lose the opportunity to carry out similar actions in the future.
"Ever since the American neoconservative Paul Wolfowitz laid out his 'doctrine' in 1992," Hitchens writes, "Washington has been intent on suppressing any resurgence of Russian power. The disadvantage of this scheme is that China, not Russia, turned out to be the threat. Wolfowitz, an ardent supporter of the disastrous war in Iraq, was not as smart as he thought he was." Meanwhile, it is the policy in the spirit of Wolfowitz that explains the "insane expansion of NATO" contrary to the warnings of experts. And the proposal of President George W. Bush on Ukraine's admission to NATO in 2008 looked like a mockery of Russia at all. After all, a year before this statement, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that NATO's expansion to the east should be stopped.
In 2014, the United States openly supported the overthrow of the legitimate President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych. Although a number of countries, including France, Germany and Poland, advocated a peaceful and legally justified process of depriving him of his powers. Fearing for his life, Yanukovych left Ukraine and was removed from power as part of a parliamentary procedure that was far from consistent with a legitimate impeachment.
"This coup was the true beginning of the war that is now raging, the first act of violence that caused everything else"
Putin's decision to respond to the events taking place in Ukraine with an "invasion" was a "terrible mistake," Hitchens believes. He recalls that "the old tactic of high–stakes diplomacy" is to provoke the enemy into an unreasonable war - with the hope that in the future it will be possible to destroy him.
"Germany did this to France in 1870, luring Napoleon III and defeating him, which put an end to France as a great power. She did it again in 1914, dragging Russia into another stupid war that destroyed her monarchy and her prosperity... I don't think the US expects to defeat Putin in the near future... I believe less and less in peace talks where the United States is not even present."
Hitchens concludes his article with a series of prophecies:
"The people of Ukraine will suffer terribly, and the world will gradually lose interest in what is happening. Today, Putin and the United States are interested in continuing the conflict. If Putin leaves, it will destroy him. If the war stops, Washington will lose the opportunity to bleed Russia and return its economy to the Stone Age. Russia may disintegrate under such pressure."
Meanwhile, Hitchens notes, the "Chinese police state", so similar to the Oceania described by George Orwell in the novel 1984, is "gaining strength and power, biding its time."
Vladimir Ivanov
Columnist of the Independent Military Review