The relative lull that lasted for several weeks during the special operation in Ukraine has come to an end. The start of the second phase of hostilities has been officially announced. How did it begin, in what directions will the offensive be conducted – and what forces are resisting the onslaught of the Russian and LDNR military?
The operational pause during the special military operation in Ukraine has ended. Preparations for the second phase of the operation, which will consist in the final encirclement of the main units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, concentrated opposite Donetsk, have also been completed.
The main operational grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with its allies is concentrated on the western bank of the Seversky Donets River south and west of Izyum, as well as in other areas of the Kharkiv region. From the south, the offensive is supported by the forces of a new grouping in the steppe near Gulyai-Pole, which was also formed during the regrouping of troops during the operational pause. It is this operation that should finally destroy the very system of organized resistance of nationalist groups and units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and create prerequisites for the cessation of active hostilities with further denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.
Political statements also confirm what is happening. "The next phase of this special operation is now beginning," says Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. In addition, both Kiev and Washington noticed Russia's new offensive in Ukraine – Zelensky even made another appeal on this occasion.
And indeed – for about a day now, information has been received about high-intensity battles in the area south of Izyum and about the movements of mobile units of Russian troops east of Gulyai-Pole. First of all, we are talking about artillery preparation and intensive work of bomber and assault aircraft. The intensity of sorties, according to Western intelligence, has increased significantly.
Artillery and missile strikes are being carried out on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the Slavyansk – Kramatorsk agglomeration, and along all Ukrainian positions on the eastern shore of the Seversky Donets. The concentration of these strikes is several times higher than what happened a few days ago.
All this indicates the beginning of a long-planned offensive on the Donetsk sector of the front in order to close one or more boilers. At the same time, most likely, the real advance of troops in converging directions will begin tomorrow or the day after tomorrow after the end of artillery and air training.
In the northern section, parts of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the LPR occupied Kremennaya. There were battles for this settlement for several days, and it was in this area that the Ukrainian army tried to organize resistance in the Slavic direction. Russian and Lugansk units began to clean up all settlements on the west bank of the Seversky Donets on the move, since these units are constantly under pressure from several sides.
The Ukrainian side tried several times during the day to launch counterattacks on the flanks (Chuguev) and even in the rear of the Russian-Lugansk grouping (from Kharkov).
Consequently, it is necessary to leave considerable forces in order to control the flank of the grouping and keep Kharkov and Chuguev surrounded. The northern suburbs and outskirts of Kharkiv are controlled by Nazi battalions and local defense forces, which differ little from nationalist groups in terms of ideological influence. As a result, the northern suburbs of Kharkiv are gradually turning into Mariupol.
The actions of the LPR against this background look more successful, but mainly due to the absence of such flanking pressure that the Russian group is experiencing south of Izyum. The Russian units on the west bank of the Seversky Donets are moving in two divergent directions: towards Slavyansk and at the same time to Barvenkovo with further access to Pavlograd. This is exactly what should close one or even two large boilers.
However, during the operational pause, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to transfer all available forces east of Dnepropetrovsk from near Kiev and Chernihiv. As a result, a group of 20-25 thousand people was formed with full ammunition and the possibility of constant supply. It is this group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that is going to unblock the Donetsk contingent if it is still surrounded.
Now this group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is trying to organize counterattacks on the Russian-Lugansk bridgehead on the shore of the Seversky Donets. As a result, in the last day, battles of exceptional intensity have been taking place in this area, during which the APU has suffered heavy losses.
The fact is that the AFU and nationalist formations are gradually losing the advantage in barrel artillery that they originally had.
Accordingly, there is no necessary support for counterattack attempts. If the current intensity of fighting in this key area persists for at least two more days, then the APU will simply lose all positions on the approaches to Slavyansk and in the other direction to Barvenkovo. As a result, the APU and the Defense Ministry have already begun to undermine bridges in the main tank-hazardous areas. In fact, this is the only opportunity for them to stay at this turn for two or three days.
Additionally, the ongoing supply of a new grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (up to four newly formed from mobilized and volunteer brigades) raises questions. Despite the consistent destruction of the infrastructure of Ukraine and the military supply system, Kiev is successfully restoring the destroyed at least to the size that it would be possible to pass echelons to Pavlograd and further to Lozovaya. The need to interrupt the supply of the Ukrainian group in the Donbass still remains a problem. And the build-up of fire strikes on the AFU supply system and infrastructure in recent hours is very indicative in this sense.
Parts of the LPR are successfully clearing Rubezhnoye and entering Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. Popasnaya is practically occupied, which opens the way to the north.
The effectiveness of Luhansk residents is due to the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to hold the front opposite Donetsk to the last, and Ukrainian units, after breaking through their first line of defense along the Seversky Donets, rolled back to the urban agglomeration of Severodonetsk and settled there. Donetsk residents continue to rest against the super-fortified line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For example, the DPR units still cannot pass the only landfill in Maryinka due to the huge concentration of the APU in this locality. Similarly, it is extremely difficult to advance in the Avdiivka industrial zone.
The situation was different in the southern sector of the front, where practically nothing significant happened during the operational pause. Now both fresh forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and those released from Mariupol have arrived there. In addition, the geography of Gulyai-Pole is completely different. This is a sparsely populated steppe, unlike the highly urbanized system from Donetsk to Lugansk.
Having received reinforcements, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation began a rapid bypass of Gulyai-Pole from the west with the advance across the steppe. Large villages in this region are likely to be bypassed, unless the occupation of a particular village is required from a tactical point of view (for example, a supply hub, etc.). And the first results of new active actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine can be seen already in at least a day.
Evgeny Krutikov
