Vasily Golovnin — on the prospects of Japan joining the USA, Great Britain and Australia in AUKUS
In mid—April, Japanese political life was stirred up by a small sensation - the United States, Great Britain and Australia, as it was claimed, at an unofficial level persistently invite Tokyo to join their still trilateral military partnership AUKUS, which these countries created last fall mainly to counter China. And now, of course, Russia.
The news was reported by the Sankei Shimbun newspaper with reference to insider sources, and this information was immediately denied by the government. Hirokazu Matsuno, Secretary General of the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers, said at a press conference in Tokyo that the report on attempts to connect Japan to AUKUS "does not correspond to reality."
However, the refutation was not really believed - Tokyo's proximity to the United States, Britain and Australia is beyond doubt, and military contacts have been growing between them for a long time and firmly. Therefore, it seems to me that creating some special relationship with AUKUS would be quite logical. Tokyo, for example, has the official status of a NATO partner, Japanese representatives work at the alliance headquarters on a permanent basis. In addition, Sankei Shimbun is known for good sources of information, including in military circles.
Little Japanese NATO
According to the newspaper, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States primarily express interest in connecting Japan's economic and technological potential to military developments, which are supposed to be conducted on a collective basis. We are talking about the creation of hypersonic weapons, electronic and cybernetic warfare, the use of artificial intelligence devices and cryptosystems for the needs of the armed forces. Tokyo, by the way, is already engaged in developments in these areas. The whole problem, apparently, may lie precisely in the form of registration of cooperation.
According to the Sankei Shimbun, there are ardent supporters in Tokyo of officially joining the partnership, which, it is claimed, will increase the potential of China's collective deterrence. At the same time, there are also adherents of a more cautious approach. They are in favor of developing contacts based on bilateral relations with the United States, Great Britain and Australia, with which Tokyo already has separate agreements on military cooperation.
It should be borne in mind that Japan, paradoxically, has almost created its own small NATO. It has extensive systems of bilateral military agreements not only with the United States, but also with Australia, Great Britain, France and even India. Attempts are being made to build something similar with Vietnam and the Philippines. The agreements create a legal basis for joint military exercises, the import of weapons and ammunition of foreign armies and, in some cases, allow mutual support in the conditions of hostilities.
AUKUS Plans
Against this background, by the way, Tokyo may leave contacts with AUKUS at an active informal level, so as not to tie their hands and not create an open crisis in relations with China. Proponents of the cautious approach also refer to the fact that Japan's legislation still retains vague restrictions on participation in multilateral military alliances.
However, this, of course, is unlikely to prevent cooperation in joint arms development with the AUKUS countries. And in general, it is obvious that Japan, as the main Pacific ally of the United States, is a natural partner of this structure, even if Tokyo does not enter it in an official capacity.
As part of the trilateral agreement signed in September 2021, Canberra primarily plans to build at least eight nuclear submarines for itself with the help of American and British technologies, the first of which are expected to enter the country's Navy in 2036. We are also talking about equipping the Australian Armed Forces with American long-range cruise missiles. Members of AUKUS this year announced their intention to cooperate in the creation of hypersonic combat systems.
The second front in the South Pacific
This "troika" has an addition in the region — the Quad security Dialogue ("Quartet"). It includes Australia, India, the United States and Japan, which regularly conduct fairly large-scale joint naval exercises, sometimes with the involvement of France as well. However, the Quartet is trying to expand the scope of its activities, extending it to cooperation in new technologies and other civilian projects. South Korea, for example, is actively invited to this structure; in my opinion, there are some plans for other countries in the region.
Russia and China have repeatedly, including at the level of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressed alarm and displeasure at the creation of such structures. Beijing, for example, claims that the appearance of AUKUS is based on the mentality of the Cold War and will aggravate the arms race. The PRC also called this grouping "an attempt to create a Pacific NATO."
China's concern is understandable — equipping the Australian Navy with nuclear missile submarines, for example, seriously worsens China's strategic positions in the South Pacific and the Indian Ocean, in fact, opens a second front there to counter Beijing. The same submarines will be able to operate together with American and Japanese and off the Russian coast. In addition, the exercises of the Navies of the "Quartet" member countries have already been held in addition to the Indian Ocean and in the waters of the Far East.