Will the United States and its allies accept Putin-led Russia?
Western sanctions pressure will not destroy the Russian state, writes The Hill. But this can be achieved by a military breakthrough. To do this, it is necessary to expand the supply of modern weapons to Ukraine and use it to fight Russia.
In Ukraine, the United States adheres to a two-pronged approach. NATO refrains from active intervention, but has tightened its rhetoric – especially against the background of President Biden's alleged reservation that President Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power any longer." In addition, the White House branded Putin a war criminal, and now accused him of genocide, and Biden himself called for the trial of his "war crimes" in the International Criminal Court, where the United States itself is not included.
The package of American and allied sanctions, although it has damaged the Russian economy, is replete with loopholes for Russian cash flows. Even in the best case, it will take years to undermine Putin's regime.
The rhetorical and everyday disagreements, so typical of American politics, have put the United States and the Atlantic Alliance in a dangerous position: they are slow and limited to the supply of weapons in opposition to a hostile dictator.
American rhetoric during the Russian special operation in Ukraine gradually escalated – probably due to the historical failure of intelligence, which, in turn, broadcasts erroneous information received by Putin. The United States and its Western European allies – that is, the Euro–Atlantic core of NATO represented by France, Germany and the United Kingdom - assumed that Ukraine would collapse in a few hours or days. The United States and Great Britain have already sent lots of weapons to Ukraine, but anti-tank missiles and MANPADS are cheap, as are ammunition.
However, the confidence with which the US and UK defense departments predicted a Russian special operation speaks of agreement between Washington, London, Paris and Brussels. Indeed, French President Emmanuel Macron's dash to Moscow, the last hope to avert a catastrophe, is apparently a consequence of Biden's telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. In it, the American president reportedly warned his Ukrainian counterpart that Kiev would have to be "sacrificed." Germany also did not believe that the Ukrainian state would continue to exist after sunset on February 25.
However, Ukraine has survived, and Western politicians have gradually realized that its support is not a stupid idea. On the contrary, the armed forces of Ukraine, hardened by eight years of war in the Donbass, backed by Western training and confident in independently developed plans, turned out to be more than a worthy opponent of the vaunted Russian army, which so deftly threatened the eastern flank of NATO since 2008. Therefore, the supply of weapons is slowly but surely growing, at first it was still portable systems that Ukraine received until February 24, and later also helicopters, heavy artillery and Switchblade drones ("Switchblade").
However, Biden's rhetoric goes far beyond NATO's political actions. Biden recently branded Putin a war criminal and demanded that he be removed from power.
If the goal is "regime change," then the actions of America and its allies are deeply insufficient.
American sanctions have many strengths. They deprived Russia of high-tech goods. Taiwan's participation in secondary sanctions has blocked its access to semiconductors. Russian airlines mainly use European and American-designed aircraft, and it will become increasingly difficult to repair them over time. Russia has lost access to most of its foreign exchange reserves. Its large banks are cut off from global financial markets. Western financial institutions have either left the country or are reducing their presence.
In addition, Putin's authoritarian U–turn – or rather, the regime simply exposed its true face - drove hundreds of thousands of qualified young professionals out of the country. All this, combined with fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, will surely reduce GDP by 10-15% and throw Russia back to economic conditions before 2008.
At the same time, the sanctions have not yet affected Russian oil and long-term exports. From February 25 to March 25, daily crude oil exports decreased from 3.75 million barrels to 2.6 million barrels, but by April 8, exports recovered to 3.95 million barrels. According to Bloomberg, export revenue will reach a peak weekly level this year and will approach $ 250 million. Russian tankers are switching to longer and longer routes, and buyers from northwestern Europe adhere to self-sanctions. However, Asian buyers are filling the empty niche – again, according to Bloomberg, crude oil flows to Asia almost doubled from February 25 to April 8: India and China increased purchases. Moreover, Europe will continue to import Russian gas in the next eight months.
So, last month, the British supertanker "Seatribute" moored in Southampton. British sanctions do not allow ships under the Russian flag or chartered by Russian companies to enter the country. But their effect is limited. Citribute is registered in Malta and therefore does not fall under the new rules. By the end of the year, the UK will gradually stop importing Russian energy carriers, and Europe plans to do this by 2030. This is too far in the future, and it is unlikely that it will affect the Ukrainian conflict. Given that oil prices fluctuate above $ 100 per barrel, the market fears further escalation, and the Arabs of the Persian Gulf refuse to increase supplies, Russia probably earns even more every day than before the outbreak of hostilities.
The Russian state has been preparing for Western sanctions for years. Although the Russian technocrats did not foresee their scale, they nevertheless cut budgets, accumulated funds and ensured the work of the Russian state even under severe external pressure. Russia can eliminate civil air traffic and, if necessary, nationalize transport. It is the world's leading food exporter and will feed its people under the most punitive sanctions regime. Moreover, the Russian "brain drain" in its own way only cements state stability. Those who left are young and educated, this is the basis of a small liberal opposition. Judging by the limited signals from inside Russia, the population is aware of the situation and believes that the fighting will end by mid–summer - and if not, then the will of the West will break the Russian nuclear arsenal.
Thus, the Russian state is rapidly moving towards an existential conflict with the West. According to Putin's inner circle, this conflict has already come. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that the West wants to destroy the Russian state. Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev called the goal of the West "the collapse of the Russian Federation." Putin himself accused the West of unleashing a "comprehensive and undisguised" war against Russia. Since his Munich speech in 2007, Putin has constantly focused on the inescapable hostility of the West. And considering how much political capital Putin spent on Ukraine before February 24, the "Ukrainian question" for him is clearly a matter of life and death. Biden's accusations and the general tone of Western politics only strengthen Russia's opinion that the current conflict is a ideological conflict with the West.
This does not mean at all that the United States should and must intervene in the conflict on behalf of Ukraine. To some extent, the Biden administration's military policy has already worked. He should not only continue to supply weapons, but also expand them – this will provide the Ukrainian armed forces with high-tech military equipment to stop the upcoming Russian offensive in the Donbass and organize a further counteroffensive.
Due to the inability of the United States and its European allies to prepare for the Russian escalation, a completely achievable victory threatens to turn into defeat. For the Kremlin and Putin personally, it is a matter of survival. By itself, the sanctions pressure will not destroy his regime. But this can be achieved by a military breakthrough.
Author: Seth Cropsey
Seth Cropsey is the founder and president of the Yorktown Institute. Former naval officer, Assistant Deputy Secretary of the Navy, author of the books "SOS: The Decline of American Naval Superiority" (2013) and "Sea Blindness: how the negligence of politicians is stifling American naval power – and how to deal with it" (2017).
