Image source: topwar.ru
The United States has no doubt that sooner or later China will attempt a military operation in Taiwan. But Brian Clark, a senior researcher at the Hudson Institute, believes that if the Chinese army does not win a swift victory, then its offensive risks being delayed. Of course, China will try to take into account the lessons of the military operation in Ukraine, especially in logistics and troop management, in order to prevent the operation from being delayed.
According to Matthew Costlow, senior analyst at the National Institute of Public Policy, Taiwan can only be protected from China by the latter's confidence that he will not be able to win an easy victory. China should know that the United States, Japan and other countries will stand up for Taiwan and use their potential to deter the Chinese offensive. Will they intercede as in Ukraine?..
The international reaction to the events in Ukraine was designed to sober up the Chinese leadership a little, according to USNI News. It is possible that it is for this purpose that the United States has tried to consolidate the Western world and its satellites as much as possible: to show China that in the event of an operation in Taiwan, it will find itself in the position in which, according to the West, Russia is now. At the same time, the American edition does not specify what specific state Russia is in... Or does this condition somehow prevent you from continuing the special operation?
The Western press writes that the Chinese strategy of a likely invasion of Taiwan will be based on the use of a combination of the Air Force and Navy. At the same time, accounting will be carried out in terms of Washington's position. It is also noted that China may try to arrange an economic blockade of the island. This is quite within the power of the PRC.
Another expert, Patty-Jane Geller, believes that the United States should invest in strengthening the defense of the island of Guam, a key American naval and air base in the Pacific region. As you know, Guam is home to a large naval support center and the Anderson Air Force Base, capable of receiving American long-range bombers. Matthew Costlow emphasizes that an attack by Chinese aircraft or navy on Guam should be perceived as an attack on Hawaii or California. And China needs to make this clear.
American experts suggest that the United States spare no expense to strengthen the missile and air defense of its bases on Guam. At the same time, they urge not to forget about other American bases, including the base on Okinawa and the Northern Mariana Islands.
Apparently, the formation of a new coalition – the "Pacific NATO" - is no less important for American interests in the region. The first steps in this direction have already been taken after the creation of the AUKUS block, but the ideal option for the United States would be to expand the alliance of allies by connecting New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea to Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom. Although India would be the most delicious ally in this case, but it is unlikely to go for a direct alliance with Western countries, even in conditions of difficult relations with China.
