The numbers are getting bigger, but the future is getting harder to calculate
In March 2022, the Russian Ministry of Defense received another proof of the high level of cooperation between the Ukrainian military and the military of the NATO bloc.
This is evidenced by technical devices and documents seized by Russian military intelligence at the headquarters of the 4th operational Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine in the city of Gostomel, Kiev region.
THE CAPTURED LAPTOP
The laptop, which has a license number of the NATO registry, digitally contains maps, combat plans, orders and orders. This indicates the special secrecy of this device and indicates that the military of the national battalion have a special security clearance from the North Atlantic Alliance.
The laptop contains a detailed digital map of the area with the locations of our units and other military facilities, which were discovered by all types of US and NATO intelligence with extensive use of UAVs, including American ones.
The materials obtained by intelligence indicate the close cooperation of the Ukrainian side with NATO structures. And also about the transition of part of the information exchanges to the "figure", which would have been impossible without thorough preliminary training of the National guardsmen by NATO.
Thus, NATO is not only increasing the digitalization of its own combat control and support systems, but is also rapidly driving its hapless partners in Ukraine into a "digital stall".
The study and analysis of the alliance's extracted materials should give a new impetus to the ongoing work in our country in the field of digitalization of all aspects of the life of our state, its armed forces and defense complex.
DIGITALIZATION OF ALLIANCE MANAGEMENT
The Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the NATO Strategic Forces for Transformation, General Philippe Lavigne, reported to the Permanent Council of NATO at one of its recent meetings his vision of the adaptation of the alliance in the foreseeable future.
The military proposes to focus on the comprehensive digitalization of all areas of the unit's activities. In their opinion, this is an important condition for NATO's adaptation to the modern operating environment, in which it is impossible to measure risk and uncertainty reigns.
According to General Lavin, "the most important aspect of NATO's transformation and its main goal is to collectively ensure NATO's decisive advantage."
How does VGK CT understand such a complex task?
To understand better means to be able to form full and collective situational awareness in order to fully utilize the potential of the Alliance in shaping the security environment and win the "battle for opportunities".
Solving faster means speeding up and improving the decision–making process - from making political decisions to tactical actions.
Being stronger together means maximizing the coherence of NATO's actions, which is necessary in difficult security conditions, when challenges are multifaceted and often hidden. From an operational point of view, this means the ability to integrate various operational spheres for actions in a multi-sphere environment, participating in both kinetic and non-kinetic actions.
The two main priorities for achieving this are:
– Digital transformation that allows the Alliance to make full use of its own databases and provides for the creation of opportunities and services for the reliable maximum use of its potential;
– prompt and timely delivery of information on new critical forces and means, increasing the flexibility of NATO decision-making and implementation processes.
These priorities are expected to be achieved by integrating the three factors necessary to adapt the instrument of NATO military force to the requirements of the modern operational environment:
– the factor of innovation as a constant effort that determines the Alliance's views on capacity development;
– the factor of "cooperation and collaborations" carried out within the bloc and between the bloc and partners in the interests of building effective relations between the political leadership and military teams through inclusiveness, transparency and networks to accelerate decision-making, military planning and strengthen the stability of the alliance;
– the factor of human capital, human resources as the most valuable resource of NATO, developing talents through training and exercises, especially in support of data and digital transformation.
The alignment of the Allies' innovation priorities is designed to ensure that NATO adapts to new threats by taking advantage of the opportunities created by innovation, new technologies, sustainability, space and cyberspace. All this should lay the foundation for the implementation of the innovative advantages of the alliance in two main areas:
– eliminating the existing fragmentation of researchers, academia, and other organizations that build their activities on the basis of innovative ideas, or new technologies (startups) that have not yet been launched into mass use – that is, creating a single center for managing uncertainty in the field of innovation;
– realization of the opportunity to introduce and scale new technologies as they are ready, which means the need to create flexible investment and other organizations in both the public and private sectors.
Thus, the task is to develop new technologies – from artificial intelligence to autonomous systems – in order to ensure technological superiority in conditions when future conflicts will be fought "not only with bullets and bombs, but also with bytes and big data."
At the same time, it is important to develop breakthrough dual-use innovations. In addition to military use, this will ensure their commercialization in the civilian sector.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DESTRUCTIVE TECHNOLOGIES
At the NATO summit in London in 2019, the Alliance identified seven areas of new and potentially disruptive technological innovation that will "have a major impact on the development of future military capabilities." These are big data, artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous weapons, space, hypersound, quantum technology and biotechnology.
To guide and coordinate the development and implementation of innovations, it was decided to create the "NATO Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic" (DIANA). It is expected that the multinational fund will help NATO maintain its technological advantages by providing investments of 1 billion euros in the development of dual-use technologies with applications in the field of security and defense. It will also ensure and simplify closer and more trusting cooperation with private companies developing the latest technologies, which may otherwise be unable to develop the latest technological solutions necessary for the military-industrial complexes of NATO states.
General Philippe Lavigne does not disclose the details of the alliance's adaptation to the innovative challenges of our time. However, an analysis of the practical efforts of the leading Western states in this area allows us to determine the general direction of the alliance's attempts to "fit in" with the flow of global transformations taking place within the framework of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, proclaimed by the misanthropic theory of Klaus Schwab.
MILESTONES FOR NATO IN THE CONFLICTS OF THE FUTURE
The next war, especially if the great powers become rivals in it, may have strikingly little in common with the wars of the past.
The fighting will unfold in a completely unexpected way, conducted in an atmosphere of uncertainty and fog of war, going beyond the most sophisticated forecasts. The leading trend will be to use the increasingly broad influence of the digital world in all aspects of modern life.
Slovakia became the first NATO country to supply Ukraine with a long-range anti-aircraft missile system. Photos from the website www.mosr.sk
Global transformations of the military and military-technical spheres under the influence of digitalization are characterized by the blurring of the differences between the physical, digital and biological spheres. The rapid growth of technological breakthroughs in such diverse fields as quantum computing, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, robotics and nanotechnology – and especially in the synergy between them – profoundly changes almost all forms of human activity.
In addition, changes are characterized by the exponential rate at which they unfold. Unprecedented breadth and depth of the consequences of transformations. The depth of their influence on the change of the armed forces, their strategies and tactics, equipment, as well as on the change of defense industry enterprises, industrial sectors, countries and the entire human society. These changes are unprecedented both in their global consequences and in their destructive power.
In the military and military-technical spheres of the United States and Europe, a ruthless confrontation has unfolded for the right to be on the crest of the most powerful wave of development and transformation of society and the armed forces. The North Atlantic Alliance, with its constant bet on achieving technological superiority over all conceivable opponents, has actively engaged in the process of change with an emphasis on digital transformation, which covers several areas of adaptation of the military-political bloc to the challenges and threats of our time.
It seems that the strategic directions of adaptation of the alliance based on digital technologies in the medium term will include:
– the use of digitalization technologies in the interests of increasing the capabilities of troops in a modern operating environment with minimal effort and resources;
– development of long–term strategies for the digital transformation of the military-industrial complex of NATO member states;
– digital transformation of the sphere of scientific and practical research of NATO, taking into account the decisive influence of AI technologies and cognitive warfare, cyberspace, big data, autonomous weapons, space, hypersound, quantum and biotechnologies, as well as the rational use of the factors of the "gray zone" and Special Operations Forces in hybrid warfare theaters on combat strategies (with special attention the place is given to the development of military biotechnologies using the Pentagon biolabs in Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan and some other countries);
- digital transformation of military vocational education and some others.
DIGITALIZATION AND THE ARMED FORCES
One of the primary tasks of digitalization of the NATO Military Forces is to unite the headquarters of military units and institutions into a single digital information space in order to automate management processes and shorten the cycle of management activities, starting from the receipt of a combat mission and ending with the analysis of its execution.
The factors contributing to the transformation of the armed forces and, in general, modern war as a socio-political phenomenon should include:
– maintaining the role of nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence and ensuring strategic and political stability;
– the propensity of countries with nuclear weapons to engage in various types of violence through the use of indirect, non-military action technologies;
– the emergence of international terrorist organizations resorting to "non-classical" methods of violence and drug trafficking for self-financing in order to realize their political goals;
– the dependence of national economies generated by globalization on the situation in the world economy;
– the use of the digital environment for an increasingly widespread and carefully synchronized application of hybrid information, psychological and economic threats, warfare in cyberspace, the use of AI technologies to manage hybrid warfare operations;
– formation of new opportunities for influence in the cognitive sphere and ways of manipulating people's behavior with the involvement of AI technologies, strengthening confrontation in space and cyberspace.
These and some other factors have already played and continue to play a significant role in changing the socio-political component of the war, in blurring the line between the state of war and peace.
For example, the report of the British Ministry of Defense "Global Strategic Trends: the Future begins today", published at the end of 2018, states that in the medium term, the use of disinformation and propaganda in the media and social networks will become the main feature of hybrid warfare. According to British experts, such methods of confrontation will be increasingly used by states and their coalitions (including proxy forces), as well as by non-state actors (private military companies, terrorist groups, etc.). What will contribute to the absence of physical borders in the information and communication space and insufficient international legal regulation of the processes taking place there processes.
DIGITALIZATION AND COGNITIVE WARFARE
A special place in the alliance's digitalization plans is given to the use of artificial intelligence and cognitive warfare technologies. The NATO leadership has come to the conclusion that any society undergoing "digital transformations" faces specific dangers of fragmentation, blocking of intellectual abilities and dependence on manipulation. In these conditions, intellectual development strategies are needed that determine the requirements for digital technologies and how to use them.
The leadership of the alliance believes that disinformation is one of several digital threats that NATO faces. Recent information campaigns and cyberattacks have shown that even technologically advanced states need to do more to prepare for current and future digital challenges. More progress is needed in creating successful sustainability mechanisms and regulatory frameworks.
In the light of the digitalization of social and political reality in the context of cognitive warfare, an important factor is the speed of response to signals from the global information and communication space, which have both constructive and destructive orientation.
In this context, it is very important to make a political understanding of the problems of compliance with the policy pursued by the Russian Federation to neutralize the destructive information impact on the Russian population and neutralize the formation of negative public opinion towards our country on an international scale.
The need to implement such an approach is particularly acute in the context of the incessant attempts by our opponents to destabilize the political and socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation. In the face of an acute confrontation with Russia's demands for security guarantees, it is this approach that will contribute to the convincing refutation of false politically motivated news aimed at undermining national and international security.
At the same time, the preventive creation of an information background in the virtual space that meets the national interests of the country can significantly minimize the negative consequences of the activities of external forces that usually seek to use all tools to achieve political and military goals, including the advantages of the digital environment.
Accordingly, there is clearly a need to develop a proactive policy in the area under consideration, designed to pre-empt the likely socio-political risks of forced digitalization processes. Artificial intelligence technologies have a powerful potential for successful activity in this area.
And, finally, the digitalization of society actively influences digital transformations in the system of higher military professional education, which is the most problematic area of research and the search for new ways of development. The current trend of adapting the methods and practices of informatization and digitalization of civilian universities to the activities of military educational institutions requires significant improvements. As initial steps in the field of digitalization of military vocational education, the development of an electronic learning environment system in the context of the formation of digital competencies can be proposed.
DIGITALIZATION AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS IN THE DEFENSE INDUSTRY
In the West, in the face of intense competition between industrial firms and research organizations of the United States and NATO, the United States and the EU, long-term strategies for the digital transformation of the military-industrial complex are being actively developed. It is believed that the degree of digitalization of industrial enterprises and research institutions crucially depends on the efficiency of their work, the quality of product lifecycle management, costs, deadlines, and demand in foreign arms markets.
To this end, digital transformation is being sought to be extended to all high-tech companies. It is believed that it is important not only to have a clear idea of how the company itself will change during the transition to digital rails, but also to understand how it will integrate with various sectors of the economy, including the civil sphere. In this sense, the processes of digitalization and diversification of defense enterprises should take place inseparably from each other.
In the interests of digital transformation of the sphere of scientific and practical research, it is important to understand which scientific, research, innovation centers, programs and projects are able to meet the "digital" needs of the defense industry. For what developments in the interests of the digital economy could the defense industry become an effective platform? How to establish technology transfer from the military to the civilian sector?
conclusions
The outline of US and NATO military innovations is determined by the decisions of the highest governing national and coalition bodies and takes quite definite outlines. Along with internal competition, there is no doubt about the anti-Russian and Russophobic orientation of the events, their orientation towards achieving technological advantage over Moscow, unconditional support for the global hegemonic aspirations of the United States, the desire to influence the consciousness of the population of Russia and its allies with the aim of further manipulation and the collapse of states.
The development of the situation during the special military operation in Ukraine, as well as recent events in Kazakhstan, strongly indicate the danger of destructive cognitive technologies.
It is important to detect and respond in a timely manner to the steps of the West aimed at implementing specific military developments, taking into account the complementarity factor, when innovations are embedded in military equipment, but at the same time innovations themselves can determine the development of weapons.
For Russia, in the context of a global hybrid war, the intensification of a tough confrontation with the United States and NATO, it is important to understand what the main attention should be paid to in the innovation sphere, what principles are laid down in the development of military innovations, to develop adequate offensive and defensive strategies of military conflicts taking into account the innovation factor.
The successful solution of vital tasks is possible only through the organization of the closest interdepartmental cooperation under the leadership of a single center.
Alexander Bartosh
Alexander Alexandrovich Bartosh – corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, expert of the League of Military Diplomats; Anatoly Grigoryevich Letyago – Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the Academy of Military Sciences.
