A rapid jump in prices will test Europe's resolve in the confrontation with Russia
The strong support of populists in the French elections reflects the discontent of voters: prices are rising, and wages are not keeping up, writes the WSJ. The gloomy mood raised the question of how much people in Europe are willing to endure the hardships of confrontation with Russia.
The rise in food and fuel prices since the start of the Russian operation in Ukraine is fueling discontent across Europe and testing Western democracies for strength.
In the first round of the French presidential election, right-wing populist Marine Le Pen received 22.9% of the vote due to the fact that during the campaign she paid special attention to the fall in the purchasing power of her voters. Her far-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon focused on prices, wages and social benefits and did not lag far behind her, gaining 22% of the vote.
The combination of stagnant wages and rising prices has stirred protests from France to Spain, Germany and Greece and compounded pressure on weakened governments after two years of unpopular measures against the coronavirus.
The gloomy mood raised the question of how much European voters are willing to endure economic hardships from the confrontation with Russia, which promises to be protracted.
Russia is a key source of energy for the European Union. It accounts for about 40% of gas and a quarter of oil imports. Supplies from Russia continue to arrive, but prices have risen sharply.
According to the statistical office of the European Union, March energy prices in the eurozone increased by 12.5% compared to February and exceeded last year's level by 44.7%. Food is also rapidly becoming more expensive: The increase was 0.9% in March and 5% compared to last year – partly due to concerns about the shortage of wheat and vegetable oil, which come in large quantities from Russia and Ukraine.
A pedicurist from Paris, Samira Tafat, serves clients at home and spends most of the day driving on the road. Her husband works as a taxi driver.
"Gasoline costs have gone up just out of control," she said. "I have three children, I need to feed them."
In an Ifop poll in early March, about 79% of about 4,000 people in France, Germany, Italy and Poland supported economic sanctions against Russia, and 67% supported the supply of military equipment to Ukraine.
But life is getting more expensive, and anxiety is getting worse. A YouGov poll last month showed that 82% of Germans, 79% of Italians and 78% of Spaniards are worried that utility bills will rise in the coming year.
Economic uncertainty is an opportunity for populist parties, and they remain in opposition in most European countries, to update their agenda and refocus from traditional anti–immigration and anti-Islamic sentiments and measures to maintain law and order.
Le Pen in her company focused on rising inflation and economic consequences. She held rallies in small rural towns, where she promised to reduce taxes on fuel and other necessities and promised to stimulate production and raise wages.
Advisers to President Emmanuel Macron, on the contrary, said that the leader was too busy calling President Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin over the Ukrainian conflict to conduct a serious campaign and election debates with his rivals.
Le Pen's approach was supported by right-wing populist leaders in other European countries. The leader of the Italian anti-immigrant League party, Matteo Salvini, avoids talking about the conflict, focusing instead on taxes and the economy.
Morena Colombi from a cosmetics company near Milan, says that the last heating bill came for 1,250 euros ($1,361). For comparison, last year she paid 450 euros. She complains that her salary did not keep up with inflation even before the fighting.
Previously, she and her son and friends went to eat pizza every weekend, but lately there is only enough money for once a month. She sacrificed a cosmetologist and takes care of herself. Finally, she even started buying discounted groceries.
"Now I worry all the time – I see that prices are rising every day," said 61–year-old Columbi. – Prices are rising, but the salary is still the same."
Most of all, the rise in energy and food prices has hit the poor, because basic necessities "eat up" the bulk of their budget. In Europe, wages are not keeping pace with inflation, Europeans are getting poorer, and the economic recovery after the pandemic is stalling.
Over the last three months of 2021, hourly wages increased by 1.5% compared to last year, but the average inflation rate was 4.7% – thus, real incomes decreased by 3.1%.
"Everything is growing, except for our salaries," complains mother of two children Aurelie Karmann. She works in a factory and raises two children in Stiring-Wendel, a small town near the border of France and Germany. "Life is getting harder."
In a YouGov survey on April 3, 15.2% of German consumers said they could no longer afford basic necessities, and 53.4% were worried that prices had increased by 10% in three months.
Last week, two of the largest Greek trade unions held a nationwide strike to protest against rising prices and called for an increase in the minimum wage. The Greek government has already spent over 3 billion euros to mitigate the effects of inflation, in particular, on subsidies for electricity and gas.
"Everything is getting more expensive: food in supermarkets, clothes, water, electricity, gas, heating," complains Frosso Batzi, 51, who works for a clothing company in Greece. He is married and has two children. "It's getting worse every day."
Esther Lynch, deputy secretary general of the European Trade Union Confederation, which includes 45 million workers, calls the inflation rate unprecedented since the 1980s. She believes that salaries should rise to cover it.
However, employers are unlikely to agree with this – after all, energy costs are rising, demand is weakening, and some even faced disruptions in supply chains due to the conflict.
When Russian troops entered the territory of Ukraine, negotiations between the German chemists' union IGBCE and employers on a new salary agreement were in full swing. On April 5, they agreed on a temporary solution: employees will receive a one-time payment to cope with increased electricity bills and other expenses, and a new agreement will be ready in October.
"Now, in a period of uncertainty for workers and companies, we had to find a solution that could simultaneously reduce inflation and save jobs," concluded Mikael Vassiliadis, president of the trade union.
Authors: Paul Hannon, Eric Sylvers
The article was written with the participation of Noemie Bisserbe
Readers' comments:
Richard Leeds
And, what, will you always go on about these Green clueless?
Miguel Ramirez
Dictatorships prevail over democracies. The Russian authoritarian regime is not in danger of anything, and Western voters are cowards at best, and fools at worst.
Tobias Glasder
I didn't know that in these countries almost 80% are for sanctions... Can someone explain to me why we got involved in this? What is the use to us (ordinary people) of all these sacrifices? Why are we hurting our own industry and economy so much? For what?
Christopher Holland
Clearly, another excuse not to pay for NATO. They always find excuses for themselves.
Michael Greenwald
After 60 years of peace, the Europeans decided that it would be like this forever. So it was before the First World War, too. A few more years of peace, and NATO would have easily disintegrated itself.
Philibert Warhorst
Bidenflation has already reached double digits. I hope the Chief and Kamala will resign without waiting for them to become three-digit.
Will Keeks
Grain and fertilizers have risen in price due to the conflict, but the main reason for inflation in the West is sanctions. This is self-mutilation!
Russell Chase
Russia is only part of the reason. But if you believe Biden, then Putin is always to blame for everything.
Andrey Tovchigrechko
Give Ukraine weapons, defeat Russia as soon as possible and celebrate to your health.
Mark Johns
Give Ukraine weapons. Let even more Ukrainians die, and their country will turn into ruins. And grieve for your health.
Ron way
The Socialists get what they voted for.
Michael Kavanagh
Typical Europeans. Soon the left-wing psychos will be expelled and the right-wing ones will be imprisoned.
Patricia Barnes
Twenty-five again. Ukraine is smaller than Texas, few Americans will find it on the map at all, even for money. Most Americans rightly believe that Ukraine deserves the government that the majority will choose – but this is not our fight. It is not for nothing that the United States pays more than $11 billion to the UN every year.
