Truly fundamental changes are taking place today, even where it was impossible to foresee them yesterday. Another sign of this was the clear signal that Turkey gave to its principal rival in the Middle East region – Saudi Arabia. What signal are we talking about and what are the reasons for the sudden rapprochement between Ankara and Riyadh?
It seemed that in international relations in the Middle East, one could endlessly look at three things: the American wars to impose democracy, the conflict between Jews and Arabs, as well as Turkey's battle with Saudi Arabia for the post of regional leader. However, now, during the changes, the infinite becomes finite. Joseph Biden comes out and says that the US democracy will no longer be imposed by force – largely because the force has been exhausted. The Arab monarchies of the Gulf are restoring relations with Israel in order to restrain Iran hand in hand. And finally, Turkey is beginning to put up with Saudi Arabia.
An important step towards this was recently taken not at the diplomatic table, but in the courtroom of the Turkish court. There, an end was put to one of the most high–profile Middle Eastern scandals of recent years - the murder and dismemberment in the Istanbul consulate of Saudi Arabia of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, committed (according to the overwhelming number of experts) on the personal orders of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Recall that the murder itself took place in October 2018, when Khashoggi was lured to the consulate to issue a new passport (he was going to get married). The whole world learned about him thanks to the Turkish equipment, which was placed in advance in the consulate building. After that, the Turks methodically unwound the scandal, thereby discrediting Mohammed bin Salman.
And now the Turkish judges have decided that since the arrest warrants for the suspects are not executed and it is impossible to take their testimony, then the case should be transferred to the Saudi side. That is, in fact, to be buried together with Khashoggi.
Of course, Western human rights activists howled. They were outraged by the fact that Turkey is essentially leaking the Khashoggi case – after all, it is clear that Saudi Arabia will not punish anyone. And there is reason to believe that this is the case. Turkey initiated the Khashoggi case solely for political reasons. And exactly for political reasons, it is now closing.
Put in place
At the time of the initiation of the scandal in 2018, Turkey had a number of reasons for organizing such an operation. Both personal and public.
Then Erdogan tried to position himself as the most advanced, most modern leader of the Middle East. A leader to whom the Western world (and above all the United States) can delegate control and management of the entire Middle East region. Moreover, not everyone has forgotten how in the noughties and early tenths the Turkish president was positioned as the main progressive hope of the Middle East, which successfully combined Islam with democracy.
However, the West saw that Recep Erdogan was too independent, too authoritarian. After he began actively pursuing the pro-Western opposition, his reliability in the eyes of the West peaked. It is not surprising that in the struggle for the post of "new hope" Erdogan was bypassed by Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman – the young and ambitious de facto ruler of the richest state in the Middle East. Spot investments in the right people allowed the Crown Prince to create the image of a great reformer in the West. He presented the reform program "Vision 2030", and also announced a number of steps to liberalize the kingdom.
In a region where leaders are used to measuring up against each other with everything they can (planes, yachts, high-rises), the Crown Prince invested in reputation in order to wash his neighbors. And the Turkish president, of course, wanted to overthrow the new sultan of the image mountain.
Therefore, the Turks did not just film and record what happened – they showed everything to Western leaders. "We gave these recordings to America, the Germans, the French, the British," Recep Erdogan said. Of course, Washington, Berlin, Paris and London did not impose any total sanctions against Mohammed bin Salman (since in this case the KSA would simply withdraw all its money from the countries that "insulted" the Crown Prince), but a diplomatic boycott was announced for Mohammed bin Salman. And largely thanks to Trump (who later, as the Guardian writes, boasted that he "saved the Crown Prince's ass"), the scandal was limited to a diplomatic boycott.
In addition, a geopolitical conflict flared up between Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Both countries are contenders for regional leadership. But if in previous years they competed in peripheral countries (Syria, Libya, Egypt), in the second half of the 2010s Turkey began to expand into the sphere of exclusive interests of Saudi Arabia - the Gulf countries.
Taking advantage of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Turkey concluded an agreement with the Qatari emir, under which Turkish food, goods – and, of course, troops - were sent to Qatar. Saudi Arabia resisted expansion, so it was probably decided to deal an asymmetric reputational blow to the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia.
Finally, there was an even more fundamental reason for the disagreement. Turkey supports the spread of the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East - a kind of social version of Islam. Whereas Saudi Arabia views this ideology as an existential threat to the rule of the House of Saud.
To close in time is to anticipate
It seemed that Operation Khashoggi was extremely successful. Mohammed bin Salman has lost his status as the "hope of the Middle East" and a significant part of his political influence. However, he did not lose Saudi money. Despite the colossal spending (including on the war in Yemen), the Kingdom remained one of the richest and most stable states in the region.
But Turkey started having problems. The lira has gone into a peak, annual inflation for March was 61.5% (against 54% in February). And all this against the background of serious foreign policy crises that require Turkish attention and expenses (Ukraine, Iran, a new alignment in Europe, etc.).
Erdogan realized that the country's economy would not pull his ambitions. Moreover, the process of weakening of the US global leadership has accelerated dramatically, which means that the vacuum of influence will increase in the regions of the world. The struggle for leadership will sharply escalate, and Turkey is at great risk in it. Including because she created too many enemies for herself.
It is not surprising that some time ago Turkey took a course of reconciliation with its regional opponents - not with those with whom Ankara has an objective conflict (the same Iran), but with those with whom Erdogan quarreled largely because of his offensive policy. Israel (with whom the Turkish leader defiantly quarreled for the sake of the status of leader in the Arab world), the UAE (into whose sphere of influence he got), Egypt (where he helped the Muslim Brotherhood* come to power in 2011-2012, maintained relations with them and quarreled with Cairo after the Brothers were overthrown by the military in 2013) and Saudi Arabia.
And if progress is evident with the first two states, progress has stalled with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. And KSA was a key player to put up with. Firstly, because the keys to Cairo lie precisely in Riyadh, which has a serious influence on Egypt. Secondly, Erdogan needed Saudi money and the market.
Yes, in recent months, Erdogan has managed to make a number of steps towards Riyadh, thanks to which Turkey's exports to Saudi Arabia increased by 25% in the first quarter of 2022. However, the Saudis demanded a final decision on the Khashoggi case.
"For Mohammed bin Salman, the Khashoggi issue is the most important. He's obsessed with it, it's personal for him. He personally blames Erdogan for dragging America into the situation and not closing this case within the first few days," a source close to the Turkish–Saudi negotiations is quoted by the media as saying. Recall that Erdogan claimed that the order for the murder came from the "top leadership" of the KSA, but not from the king.
The current court decision – that is, the actual closure of the case – puts, in Ankara's opinion, an end to the personal conflict. Turns, according to the adviser to the Turkish leader Ibrahim Kalyn, a page in relations between Ankara and Riyadh. Well, it opens the way for Recep Erdogan's personal visit to Saudi Arabia, which should take place in the very near future.
* The organization(s) have been liquidated or their activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
