Does Vladimir Putin have the means for a big war against a "degenerate Europe"?
What are Russia's prospects in the "big war" with Europe? Two experts in the field of political science and military affairs tried to answer this question in an interview with Atlantico. They also assessed the impact of sanctions on Moscow's potential.
Florent Parmentier
More and more Russian intellectuals and managers are discussing in detail the goals of the special operation in Ukraine. According to an article by political scientist Vladimir Mozhegov, the Russian operation is aimed at saving Europe from "chaos and decline." Can NATO and the EU respond to Russian actions without entering into a spiral of total war?
Atlantico: Analyst Vladimir Mozhegov believes that the Russian special operation is aimed at saving Europe from "chaos and decline." How often is such an opinion expressed by officials of the Russian regime?
Florent Parmentier: In his article, analyst Mozhegov addresses the idea of a messianic Russia inherent in Russian thinking. During the 19th century, a great dispute arose between Westerners who believed that Russia should be inspired by the countries of Western Europe, and Slavophiles who believed that Russia should follow the path of its historical development. With the fall of the tsarist empire, a new intellectual movement of Russian emigration was formed — the Eurasian one, betting that Russia has its own civilizational space. The USSR was also inspired by messianism, which led to the construction of communism. Therefore, in historical terms, the Russian and Soviet authorities are more concerned with the great political mission than with the ethnic definition of their nation. The current conflict, called a "special military operation" in Russia, must necessarily have a political aspect for the authorities.
But what does the author mean when he talks about the "chaos and decline" of Europe? This corresponds to the conservative idea that Europe, which has abandoned its Christian values, turns its back not only to its past, but also to its future. This discourse has been conducted in Russia since the beginning of Putin's third presidential term, approximately since 2012. It corresponds to the course of power outlined ten years ago, although Vladimir Putin's first two terms were considered cruel in many respects, but at the same time pragmatic and non-ideological.
Jerome Pellistrandi: Vladimir Putin's plans to conquer Ukraine are part of the vision of a new Ukraine that will be protected from Europe, which is considered decadent. This course has been confirmed for years in the speeches and actions of Vladimir Putin and intellectual circles who tried to demonstrate that only the Russian Orthodox civilization can be a real civilization.
From the very beginning of the "special military operation", Vladimir Putin followed the logic of the military tasks set: to denazify, demilitarize, neutralize Ukraine. The Russian leader seeks to restore a great Russia that includes all the states of the Russian space (whether imperial or Soviet). Russia has an opinion that it is necessary to fight the ideology that has penetrated not only into Europe, but into the decadent Western world. This is manifested in the desire to achieve the conquest of Ukraine at any cost. Vladimir Putin wants to achieve military success, which will bring him political success and, according to him, confirm the return of a great Russia.
– If Putin decides to launch a major war against Europe, in any form, will Russia have enough military, financial, political, diplomatic means, as well as soft power?
Florent Parmentier: We have to define what we mean by "big war", what intensity, duration and varieties. Do we mean a nuclear conflict or a war with the use of conventional weapons, a short war or a long confrontation? Will Russia fight alone against the Western world, or will there be an alliance of countries willing to follow it?
At the moment, the Russian army has significantly weakened, fighting against Ukraine (as, indeed, the Ukrainian army), although it has not faced any NATO soldiers. The production potential of the countries involved is significant. In fact, an attack using conventional weapons seems unlikely, and a nuclear attack is very difficult to imagine. On the other hand, if Russia views the West as an enemy and vice versa, it will be tempted to take a number of hostile steps (cyber attacks, expansion of influence and destabilization of societies, etc.), the consequences of which may be more or less tangible.
Jerome Pellistrandi: Due to the events that have occurred since February 24, Russia no longer has enough funds. Even if it remains a great military power, apart from the use of nuclear weapons, it no longer has the means to impose its military and numerical superiority on other theaters of military operations. She is already having a hard time "digesting" Donbass. His device does not meet Putin's quasi-imperialist ambitions.
But that doesn't mean he's going to give up. The Russian leader will try to achieve his goals through a hybrid conflict with the support of social networks and disinformation. Vladimir Putin will seek to attract to Russia countries hostile to the imperialist model imposed by the West. This is evident from the recent vote at the UN General Assembly, where many countries refrained from condemning Russia. The ideological struggle waged by Vladimir Putin will certainly continue in the coming weeks and months.
– How high is Russia's potential to destabilize the Western world?
Florent Parmentier: At first glance, Russia's weight in the global economy does not allow it to compete with the Western world. It's one thing to rant, another to take into account reality.
Therefore, the question is rather whether Russia's policy can lead to a shift in the lines of the international system, in which Western countries continue to play a leading role, led by the United States. Several points should be noted here. Firstly, Russia plays an important role in the raw materials market: for the EU, slightly less than half of gas and coal comes from Russia, and oil – from 25 to 30%. It should also be said about nitrogen, which is an indispensable fertilizer, as well as about other raw materials; the situation in the markets will be disorderly. Then it should be noted that some international players are adapting to this new reality. India refuses to condemn Russia too openly and buys more oil from it, while Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates do not want to increase production, as the Americans want. The consequences of this destabilization will be felt, especially with regard to trade in grain and agricultural raw materials.
In other words: the Russian leaders knew that they would be punished for these actions, but they were betting that in the long run the international system they condemned would collapse. The dominance of the dollar in trade is being studied especially carefully in Moscow and Beijing.
Jerome Pellistrandi: <...>
No matter what they say in some social networks and on some pro-Putin channels, the head of the Kremlin has lost the battle for morality. Vladimir Putin has lost the information battle. Today, Putin will not be able to legitimately justify an attack on Europe, which allegedly threatens him. It is dramatic for Russia that after 45 days of fighting, the country found itself, and probably for a long time, on the bench.
– Will Europe and the West be able to respond to Russian threats?
Florent Parmentier: It all depends on what goals we set. So far, the courage of Ukrainians shown in battle frees us from a direct question. But, despite the level of prosperity, Europeans have not made efforts in terms of investing in defense, and when they invest, they do not always do it wisely.
The goal of the Europeans is to protect Europe, which can only be a prerequisite for European defense, which will have to be created before a new populist candidate appears in the United States. Can you imagine the current situation if Donald Trump were still President of the United States? On the other hand, if Vladimir Putin leaves, how can we promote rapprochement between Europeans and Russia, which will have to make efforts to return to the path of dialogue?
Jerome Pellistrandi: We have military means, even if in the specific case of Ukraine, a non-NATO country, Article 5 does not apply. The paradox is that Putin, who wanted to remove NATO and weaken Europe, turned out, on the contrary, with NATO and the European Union, which understands that it is necessary to defend itself from the aggressor country. <...>
– Can Belarus and China be strong allies of Russia to help it survive in this conflict and in the face of sanctions?
Jerome Pellistrandi: You should distinguish between Belarus and China. Belarus is a satellite state of Russia. President Lukashenko knows that his position is fragile. There is a real Belarusian opposition. Belarusian public opinion may turn against Lukashenka. Although the Belarusian leader is in no hurry to send his army to help Putin.
If Russia fails, Lukashenko knows that, as an ally, he will be brought before the International Criminal Court much faster than Vladimir Putin. It cannot be ruled out that sooner or later a Maidan-type revolution will take place in Belarus. For China, the situation is completely different. For the Chinese regime, the main thing is geopolitics. The alliance with Russia allows China to expand its borders. However, at the moment, Beijing's support remains restrained, and he is confused because Russia is losing.
If Russia had achieved its military goals, perhaps China would have been closer and more aggressive. At the moment, China needs some international stability, especially for its economy. The longer the conflict between Ukraine and Russia drags on, the worse the situation in business and trade will be, and the worse it will be for China.
– Will the economic sanctions applied at the international level against Russia be able to limit the military means and resources of the army? How much will Russia's economic situation be undermined by military actions, and will this force Vladimir Putin to return to the path of peace?
Jerome Pellistrandi: Sanctions against Russia are large-scale and cover an extremely wide range. Since these are economic sanctions, it will take some time for them to take effect. The fact remains that over time they will demonstrate their effectiveness. Vladimir Putin will face a lack of funding and difficulties for his economy.
This may affect the Russian armed forces in the medium and long term. First of all, the needs of the civilian population must be met. If there are problems with supply, with energy, heating or food, the Russian society will express its dissatisfaction. It's still a long way from that. It is hard to believe that economic sanctions, even if they hit Russia hard, will weaken Russia's military potential.
Jerome Pellistrandi (Jerome Pellistrandi)
