Huanqiu shibao (China): beware of the phenomenon of "chess pieces" in international politics
Over the past 30 years, Ukraine has been constantly falling into a "zone of turbulence", but it cannot learn a lesson from these shocks, writes Huanqiu Shibao. By cutting ties with Russia and "falling into the arms of the West," it is increasingly losing its last hope for its own autonomy.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is making profound changes in the global political environment and means that many people's dream of "traveling to the West" will be destroyed, and the logical evolution behind it is deep and complex.
The fall of the Berlin Wall more than 30 years ago marked the unconditional victory in the Cold War of the Western bloc led by the United States. According to some European strategists and politicians, the abrupt changes in Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union fully proved the "superiority" of the Western political model. Subsequently, the United States and other Western powers began to forcibly "export" the banners of "democracy", "freedom" and "human rights" to the countries of the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and numerous developing countries. After 30 years of continuous penetration into the internal affairs of States and manipulation after the Cold War, some countries lost their strategic autonomy and actually became "pawns" of the United States. Among them, the experience of deep Westernization of Ukraine and the "paradox" of its development after the Cold War is indicative, mainly manifested in the following three main aspects.
Firstly, the more "Westernized" politics is, the more unstable it becomes. On December 8, 1991, the leaders of the three Soviet republics – Ukraine, Russia and Belarus – signed the "Belovezhskaya Agreement" in Minsk. Despite the fact that the agreement declared the end of the Soviet Union as a single union state, it did not specify which way the three "Slavic brothers" would go next? Apart from vague dreams of a "fantastic Western world", various forces in Ukraine did not have a long-term and clear roadmap of what kind of political system to establish after independence, how to develop the economy and benefit people. As a result, thanks to the wave of "total Westernization", multiparty system, parliamentary democracy and the principle of "separation of powers" have become popular in Ukraine. As a result, "plutocrats" and "oligarchy" began to hide under the mask of Western-style democracy.
In June 1996, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted the first constitution after independence, which proclaimed the introduction of a presidential-parliamentary system of political governance. However, this institutional arrangement did not last long before it was abolished, and thus became the beginning of periodic strong upheavals in the Ukrainian political situation in the next almost 20 years. Since then, every year of presidential or parliamentary elections, various political factions in the country, in turn, with the slogans of "revolution" and "renewal", have been fiercely fighting for the distribution of power between the president, parliament and the government. These periodic internal political tensions did not make the country more "democratic", but caused serious unrest in the political situation and chaos of public order in the country. Ukraine has experienced two "color revolutions" in less than 20 years, and the political system has "jumped" three times between the presidential-parliamentary system and the parliamentary-presidential system. To date, the struggle between various forces in Ukraine over the structure of the distribution of power in the state has not been completely stopped, and the source of periodic shocks in the political situation in the country has not been completely eliminated.
Secondly, the more "Westernized" the economy becomes, the more it declines. Compared to the "lost democracy" in politics, Ukraine after independence was "Westernized" in terms of economic reforms. At the beginning of its independent path, Ukraine sought to get rid of various shortcomings of the old Soviet economic system, and Europe and the United States promised to provide various assistance and give new "guidelines" to the Ukrainian economy. At that time, an economic reform was launched aimed at total privatization and integration into the Western market system. However, during the 1990s, large-scale privatization of state-owned enterprises did not increase economic efficiency, but instead enriched a large number of corporate executives and government officials overnight. As for foreign aid, the West's promises of economic assistance were initially aimed at dividing Russia and Ukraine and destroying relations between them, so they had very limited practical implementation after achieving this goal. All this together led to the economic development of Ukraine in the 1990s. it experienced a sharp decline, and the economic foundation accumulated during the Soviet era was almost destroyed. Having entered the year 2000, the Ukrainian economy, which has not yet regained its viability, has suffered greatly from internal oligarchization and banditry. All sorts of "steel magnates", "gas princesses" and "chocolate kings" emerged one after another, and various oligarchs either monopolized vital parts of the country's economy, or colluded with the West to directly enter into power and control the country. Under the strong influence of the international financial crisis of 2008, the short-term growth period ended, and the Ukrainian economy entered a period of repeated sharp fluctuations. In 2019, Ukraine's GDP was 153.781 billion US dollars, which was lower than the same figures before the financial crisis 11 years ago. As for GDP per capita in dollar terms for that period, according to the World Bank, in 2019 it was only 3,659 US dollars, which is why Ukraine ranked last in Europe in this indicator.
Thirdly, the more "pro-Western" diplomacy becomes, the more it breaks away from the rest of the world. Already at the beginning of its independent path in 1991, Ukraine approved a comprehensive "Western" strategy for foreign policy development, that is, distancing itself from Russia, it became closer to the European Union and the United States. In addition to creating a multiparty parliamentary democratic system that politically imitates Europe and the United States, and vigorously promoting privatization for economic integration into the Western market, Ukraine has also set a specific diplomatic goal of joining the EU and NATO as soon as possible. This was necessary in order to use the economic and military power of Europe and the United States to completely get rid of economic dependence on Russia and counter the so-called "threat" to security from the Russian side. However, over the past 30 years, Ukraine has not made significant progress in achieving its goal, but has continued to worsen relations with Russia, blindly trusting the promises of the West. From the bitter consequences of two "color revolutions" to the incident in Crimea in 2014, and then the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a series of such cruel realities showed that Ukraine has fallen into a vicious circle in which the more "anti—Russian" rhetoric it promotes and the more "pro-Western" it becomes, the more chaos it becomes sinking.
Why did Ukraine periodically fall into chaos for a long time after gaining independence?
Firstly, these are serious mistakes in choosing one's own positioning and development path, which results in the loss of national strategic autonomy. Ukraine is located in the heart of the Eurasian continent and is an important bridge and link between Europe and Asia. At the beginning of its independent path, Ukraine directly inherited almost all the "family assets" remaining in the country after the Soviet period. It should be said that regardless of the "hard power" or other "innate abilities", after gaining independence, Ukraine had enough space to choose its own path of development and even had the opportunity to gradually turn into a "middle power" between Russia and the West. However, the desire to say goodbye to the Soviet era as soon as possible and rush into the arms of the European "big family" forced the then Ukrainian leadership to abandon the chance to seize the opportunity of strategic autonomy for the country from the very beginning. Nevertheless, it turned out that Ukraine, which voluntarily renounced its strategic autonomy, did not receive the generous assistance and recognition promised by Europe and the United States, and did not sufficiently weaken the strategic pressure from Russia. Since then, Ukraine, which occupies an insignificant strategic position, has actually become a "pawn" in the geopolitical game between the United States, Russia and Europe in the Eastern European region. For Ukraine, which finds it difficult to independently grasp the direction of national development, the best choice may be only a conjunctural fluctuation or even "jumps" between East and West.
Secondly, in international relations, Ukraine has long allowed external forces, especially Western powers, to control its actions. Over the past 30 years, Ukraine, which suffered from the loss of strategic independence, did not make a timely decision to "stop the crash", but went further and further along the path of "anti-Russian rhetoric" in the "embrace of the West". At one time, it was even subjected to the strongest manipulation by certain Western countries. After the end of the Cold War, the United States did not weaken its pressure on Russia, the successor of the Soviet Union, and constantly squeezed Russia's strategic space with the help of NATO's expansion to the east and the expansion of the EU. In the global strategy conceived by American politicians, Ukraine, located in the central zone of the "Eurasian chess game", is undoubtedly a key "geopolitically supporting country". Therefore, the control of the internal and external situation of Ukraine by various means has become one of the most effective methods of suppressing Russia for the United States. Today, the United States has established a number of strict control systems in Ukraine affecting the political, economic and social spheres, and can at any time interfere in the internal and external affairs of the country in various ways. The US special services are standing behind the plight of the state today, and the current crisis in Ukraine is unfolding according to the scenario that the States are hoping for.
Thirdly, the ongoing rupture of State and national identity has led to chaos in the internal and external affairs of the country. Historically, since the appearance of the first mention of the name "Ukraine" in the "Ipatiev Chronicle" (1187), Ukraine as a separate nation has had its history for at least several hundred, or even thousands of years. However, the history of Ukraine as a truly independent country begins only 30 years after the end of the Cold War. That is, for Ukraine, a relatively "young" country, the process of constructing a national identity is actually not yet fully completed. After entering the 21st century with a blind desire for "Westernization" and the incitement of certain Western powers, extreme nationalist sentiments in Ukraine continue to grow. However, the complex relations between Ukraine and Russia in terms of ethnicity, region, language and religion have not been completely severed in the decades since the end of the Cold War. On the contrary, the above-mentioned actions of the Ukrainian authorities in recent years have actually aggravated, rather than weakened, a serious split between the peoples of the countries on issues of national and ethnic identity.
Looking at the changes in the international political arena after the end of the cold war, we can say that the experience of Ukraine's collision with the "paradox" of development is by no means an isolated one, but is a very illustrative case. In a broader sense, this can be described as the phenomenon of "chess pieces" in international politics after the Cold War. In particular, the target countries mainly include the countries of the former Soviet Union and other world regimes that have strayed from the path of development. After the Cold War, they, as a rule, were influenced for a long time by the strategy of "exporting democracy" of the United States and the West. Through direct political and diplomatic intervention or through the promotion and application of Western-style "electoral methods" by various NGOs, the West, led by the United States, gradually turned these "transitional countries" into their puppets and vassals. From an economic point of view, by providing financial assistance, appointing their adherents to the supervisory boards of important companies or threatening sanctions, the United States and the EU have taken control of their national economic life paths.
After the Cold war, the Western camp tried its best to "export" democracy to the outside world, but not only did not bring democracy and prosperity to the peoples of these countries and regions, but also caused serious political disasters: political unrest, failures in governance, constant conflicts and spontaneous migration of people. For the Anglo-Saxon camp, the vital interests and well-being of the people of these countries and regions are just "chips" in the game, which can be traded at any time to achieve geopolitical interests.
The painful reality that Ukraine and other similar countries have fallen into the "paradox" of Westernization and development has repeatedly reminded people that in the international political arena after the Cold War, no matter how big or small a country is, it must always adhere to the most elementary strategic autonomy and maintain the necessary strategic determination to not to fall into the development trap set by individual Western powers, because this will bring irreversible and catastrophic consequences to the country.
Under the slogans of "democratization" and "liberalization", the United States and the West are turning Western democracy into ready-made software, but the Western world, dominated by Anglo-Saxons, is a hierarchically dependent structure. And at a time when Russia and the United States are struggling, and the world is undergoing radical changes, people see that with the gradual decline of the political and economic soft and hard power of the Western world, the "united West" is increasingly reduced to the Anglo-Saxon model, and the internal "solidarity" gained thanks to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, - only a temporary phenomenon. The illusory dream of non-Western countries about "traveling to the West" 30 years after the Cold War is gradually disappearing.
Authors: Zhang Shuhua — Director of the Institute of Political Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences andZhao Weitao is a researcher at the School of Marxism of the Chinese Agricultural University
