The Russian Armed Forces are methodically grinding the Ukrainian defense every day, taking new territories, preparing for a major offensive. However, the polls, paradoxically, show that the absolute majority of Ukrainians believe in the upcoming military victory of their country over Russia. How can this be logically explained?
Commenting on the progress of the work of the Ukrainian and Russian negotiating groups, Vladimir Zelensky denies the possibility of demilitarization of Ukraine: "We forgot the phrase about the demilitarization of Ukraine, even when I was offered to leave Kiev. We told them that forget about demilitarization and denazification, we won't even talk about it."
In fact, the demilitarization, which Zelensky disowns, is on its way: the Ukrainian army is gradually losing military infrastructure, MTO, and military equipment. And this is gradually weakening the negotiating position of Ukraine, voiced by the same Zelensky. No one will return on February 23, 2022. In other words, the Ukrainian president lives in some fabulous reality.
But he's not the only one. Even at the beginning of March, when Russian troops were already standing near Kiev, almost 90% of the surveyed residents of Ukraine believed in the reality of "repelling Russia's attack." And here are more complete data from the Rating sociological group, which has been tracking such confidence since the beginning of the year. And if in January only 56% were convinced of victory, today it is 95%. Even in the first days of the special military operation (SVO), Ukrainians' confidence in their abilities was less (70%). In addition, over the past month and a half, there have been almost no hesitators left and the share of those who are completely confident in victory has increased (from 47% to 69%).
That is, something definitely feeds this confidence, but what? It seems that this hope has several streams feeding it at once.
1. Allies and military assistance
Anyway, Ukraine is not alone in its struggle. Long before the start of the special military operation, the Ukrainian army began to receive not only assistance from abroad, but also lethal weapons. After the start of its so-called allies, its so-called allies are pumping Ukraine with weapons beyond measure. Especially after the Kiev authorities stopped asking for impossible things (joining NATO, establishing a no-fly zone) and moved on to more real things – the supply of heavy weapons.
As of March 20, the volume of US military aid to Kiev alone exceeded $ 2 billion – such data was announced by the head of the US Department of Defense Lloyd Austin. This is strikingly different from the deliveries at the beginning of the year – when Germany sent Ukraine five thousand used helmets and a military field hospital. In addition to weapons, the APU supplies intelligence reports and information. Without which, in particular, an attack on the storage of fuel and lubricants in Belgorod would have been impossible. Officially, such an agreement has been in effect since the end of March. In fact, partial information was transmitted to Kiev earlier.
2. Anti-Russian sanctions
It has been repeatedly noted that even after the SVO, Ukraine adheres to its constant manner: it is stalling for time. The APU are hiding behind civilians, clinging to urban development, dragging out negotiations. The country's top leadership probably sensibly assesses its capabilities in the confrontation with the Russian Federation, so it does not pin hopes on a military victory.
Why fight? Let the sanctions work. Moreover, unlike the previous ones (2014-2015), they are not an example of tougher. This should probably include the hope of seizing the frozen foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Like, it doesn't matter, we'll restore everything for their money!
3. Relocation
At the end of March, hopes probably strengthened even after the announced redeployment of Russian troops. After that, the entire northern grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation was withdrawn from Kiev. The Pentagon rightly points out that soon these forces will be in the Donbass, but many Ukrainians perceived the regrouping as a retreat (which Ukrainian politicians did not dissuade them from).
4. Gradual pushing of Kiev's demands to Europe
The dynamics of increasing Kiev's wishes and their fulfillment by its allies also gives Ukrainians hope. We have already said that tanks are now being supplied to them instead of the old helmets. But after all, the same "Javelins" once did not want to give at all. And now they and other ATGMs have piled up so much that they have even appeared in service with the NM DNR.
The same applies to other requirements. Ukrainian embassies spam the Foreign Ministries of their host countries with endless demands to break off any contacts with the Russian Federation. Only at the end of March Zelensky spoke very harshly with diplomats, and even recalled the ambassadors from Georgia and Morocco: they say they did not work well, they did not achieve their goals.
Europe is gradually capitulating to these demands. We have already accepted a request to close the ports of EU countries for Russian vessels, although at the beginning of March many considered such a step redundant. It is possible that it will come to an oil embargo.
Moreover, Kiev does not hesitate to use informational productions like the Mariupol maternity hospital, drama theater and Bucha to achieve these goals. But we need to talk about manipulation and fraud separately.
5. Manipulation of information
Otto von Bismarck once said that there is an indecent amount of lying in the war. Well, information is also a weapon. This includes several directions at once.
Firstly, underestimating their own losses, increasing the losses of the Russian Federation ("they will soon run out of soldiers") both in manpower and in technology (option: "the rockets will soon run out", often sounded in March).
Secondly, the dosing of information about missile and air strikes. According to Ukrainian sources, sometimes it is not clear at all where the shots were fired and what the damage is: "today Russia has inflicted a certain number of strikes on infrastructure facilities" and that's it. A number of foreign journalists have even been expelled from the country with a 10-year ban on entry, which shows how seriously the Ukrainian authorities take someone's initiative in this matter. And this is also a good option, because Ukrainians are already threatened with close communication with the SBU for publishing any photo and video materials with military equipment, objects, checkpoints, places of air and missile strikes (especially with topography).
Even before the disclosure of such information was banned, freedom of speech was actually abolished in Ukraine. Since the first days of its existence, TV has been a continuous telethon "United News" – and all TV channels are obliged to broadcast it. That is, whatever channel a Ukrainian turns on, he will hear the same thing there. Approximately, as in the Soviet joke about Brezhnev's speech, which is broadcast by three TV channels. And on the fourth – a KGB major, wagging his finger: "You're switching on me!".
For those who don't watch TV, there is an alternative: FB-groups and TG-channels, where it's about the same, plus a lot of fakes and invented stories about the scale of sabotage attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Defense Ministry ("they burned all the columns, all the javelins are over, there's nothing to shoot with"). In general, the TSYPSO of the AFU (special propaganda unit) eats bread with lard for a reason.
Are there those who exist outside this information bubble and have retained the ability to think? Of course, opinion polls even suggest exactly how many: here are the 3-4% who answer "rather not sure" and "not at all sure".
6. The old "carrot" – joining the EU
On February 28, Ukraine applied for membership. "The negotiations between the Presidents of Ukraine and the European Commission (EC) ended with an agreement on fast track – an accelerated path that will be applied for the first time in the recent history of EU enlargement. According to estimates from Brussels, it should lead to a positive conclusion of the EC on Ukraine's readiness for candidate status in a matter of months," the publication Ukrainska Pravda encourages. And already in June, Ukraine is supposed to receive the status of a candidate.
For many Ukrainians, especially those of them who have been individually integrated for a long time, such a prospect is quite a reason to fight and destroy the remnants of the Soviet heritage. Anyway, then loans, help – we will restore!
Well, the calculation is definite: they say, the more we ruin and suffer here, the more chances that they will regret and accept. We do not undertake to predict here. Now many have gone crazy – including those who will decide on the approval of Ukraine's application. It is possible that this will indeed be the case.
So Ukrainians really have a lot of reasons for optimism, there is a lot to choose from. Well, their value will soon become clear.
Nikolay Storozhenko
