The American Conservative (USA): Biden's stupidity in Ukraine
The desire to promote NATO to Russia's western borders at the expense of Ukraine may well be considered the greatest foreign policy mistake of the United States since World War II, the author of The American Conservative is convinced. But Washington learns nothing and remembers nothing.
Americans will not understand in any way that there are political decisions of the Biden administration on Ukraine – the result of a deliberate strategy, exceptional incompetence or a combination of one and the other. The United States threatens the nuclear power of Russia with regime change, and then proclaims America's right to be the first to launch a nuclear strike under "extraordinary circumstances" – in response to an invasion by conventional armed forces, chemical or biological attack. It follows from this that President Biden and his administration are really disconnected from reality.
His voters instinctively understand that Americans will gain nothing from a war with Russia – whether it is open or undeclared. One trip to the nearest supermarket or gas station will exhaustively explain why. Last week, inflation reached the highest level in almost 40 years, and gas prices have skyrocketed since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict.
The Western media incessantly expose Russian leaders and the Russian armed forces in an unfavorable light, and it seems that President Biden is grasping at any legend that fits into his rhetoric in the slightest. However, suppressing the true causes of this tragic conflict – the expansion of NATO to the east at the expense of Ukraine – it will not be possible to change the strategic reality. Moscow cannot lose the conflict with Ukraine, just as Washington cannot lose the war with Mexico.
Due to the proximity of Ukraine, Moscow has virtually unlimited access to reserves of military force, equipment and firepower. With all Moscow's intentions to avoid unnecessary collateral damage to the population and infrastructure of Ukraine, the Russian Air Force and ground forces can methodically and pointwise sweep away the Ukrainian resistance.
Russia's raw-material economy with an abundance of food, energy, minerals and other resources gives Moscow a huge strategic depth in the Eurasian space. Thanks to these resources, Moscow has become a natural strategic partner of Beijing – thereby ensuring the security of its Asian border. Finally, Moscow's role in the stabilization of Central Asia makes Russian power indispensable for the success of the Chinese initiative "One Belt, One Road", whose roots go back to the historical Silk Road that connected East Asia with Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
Washington too often resorts to financial sanctions, which has seriously weakened, if not completely undermined confidence in the global financial system under the leadership of the United States. It is much more likely that the countries of Europe, Asia and Africa will either bypass the sanctions and buy Russian and Belarusian goods at a discount, or in principle refuse to comply with them.
In order to minimize the consequences of financial sanctions from Washington and the European Union, Russia has already started "de-dollarization" of its economy several years ago. Unencumbered by a gigantic sovereign debt, unlike Washington, Moscow has stabilized the ruble exchange rate by raising interest rates and linking to gold reserves. Now de–dollarization as an anti-sanctions measure is rapidly expanding - it was supported by China, India and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh's offer to sell oil for yuan raised the question of the future of the petrodollar edge.
Despite the public demonstration of solidarity with Washington, Japan sees its future in Eurasia and has signed up for membership in the Comprehensive Regional Economic Partnership (CEP), the world's largest trading bloc. As expected, Tokyo has already stated that it will not ban the import of Russian oil and natural gas, but will continue to cooperate with Russia on joint economic projects.
Europeans breathed a huge sigh of relief when the Russian government announced on April 1 that Moscow would not stop gas supplies if buyers opened accounts with Gazprombank, where payments in foreign currency would be converted into rubles. However, Europeans will soon have to decide whether to abandon trade and cooperation with Eurasian governments that resist Western liberalism with its comprehensive claims, or prepare for impending civil unrest at home.
Due to the huge share of Russian energy and food in the European and world markets, the conflict between Moscow and Kiev has always been a nightmare scenario. Therefore, it is not surprising that on April 2, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned about the serious global consequences of the special operation in Ukraine: "We must make sure that the fighting ends as soon as possible."
Scholz is right. Rising energy and food prices will strengthen oil and gas production around the world and expand the cultivation of wheat, barley and corn outside Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. But even this will not compensate for the impending structural shortage of goods and will not solve problems with the supply of fertilizers and metals.
Washington's ruling class has long misjudged strategic reality. The desire to advance NATO to Russia's western borders at the expense of Ukraine may well be considered the greatest foreign policy mistake of the United States since World War II, but Washington does not learn anything and does not remember anything. After the defeat of the Anglo-French alliance in June 1940, the combined power of Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia and imperialist Japan became insurmountable. If these three had remained allies, neither Washington nor even another alliance would have been able to challenge them for many decades.
President Biden and the one–party leadership in Washington are themselves consolidating the dominance of the pleiades of the world's leading economic powers in the Eurasian space - Russia, China, India, Japan, Central and Southeast Asia. By doing so, they are restoring the strategic position that Washington so feared in 1940. And American voters would prefer that Washington, instead of a war with Russia, strengthen America's economic prosperity, curb inflation and restore the rule of law.
President Biden would be wise if, following Scholz, he tried to put an end to the dangerous conflict in Ukraine. However, in the uncertain future, the use of American military power in the Eastern Hemisphere will now be inextricably linked with the risk of war with several first-rate powers in several regions of the world at the same time. Well done, Mr. President.
Author: Douglas MacGregor, retired colonel, senior researcher at The American Conservative, former adviser to the Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, honored combat veteran and author of five books
