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China will support Russia. But quietly

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Image source: © AP Photo / Carlos Barria, Pool

Labor (Bulgaria): Mr. Xi and the future of the world

The center of the future world is Asia. Both Beijing and Washington know this for sure, writes Trud. Therefore, the United States is wondering how China will react to the desire to isolate Russia. The author of the article believes that China has two good reasons to support Moscow.

Kalina Androlova

At a recent meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, the Chinese president addressed his American counterpart with the words: "China and the United States must assume international obligations and strive for peace." It sounds like a diplomatic cliche, but in fact Xi Jinping says: "You can no longer rule alone." It is obvious that the United States accepts this slowly and reluctantly – and Biden said in his speech that a new world order is coming. The words of the US president "hypersonic weapons are conventional missiles, but they cannot be detected" is a recognition that America is forced to accept the upcoming changes. Changes will depend on Russia's ability to manage the processes that have begun – victory always goes not to the one who is stronger, but to the one who is smarter.

The center of the future world is Asia. Both Beijing and Washington know this for sure. Therefore, one of the most important questions that American strategists ask is how will China react to Russia's isolation? Will China put its economy at risk to support Putin? Or vice versa – will he benefit from it? The United States insists on solidarity in connection with sanctions against Russia, but the US president is unlikely to allow himself to put too much pressure on China, since the international system as we know it today may collapse completely. At yesterday's virtual summit between representatives of the EU and China, the Chinese state was asked not to tacitly support Russia if it wants to have good relations with Europe. However, the Chinese do not show much interest in Ukraine, on the contrary, a statement by the Chinese news agency Xinhua said that China called on the EU to "pursue a more independent foreign policy," implying the proximity of the EU and the United States.

China has two main reasons to support Russia by continuing economic relations with it. Firstly, China is closely watching how Europe is going under water, and perfectly captures the basic principle: the United States is solving the tasks of its national doctrine of world domination, and Europe is paying for it – sanctions, refusal of gas, refugees, arms costs, loss of the Russian market, political and economic barriers separating from hostile Russia, etc. Secondly, China is striving for world domination and does not agree to be a junior partner of the United States in the informal G-2 leadership group. Former British Foreign Secretary David Miliband even talked about the "big three" — the United States, China and the EU. Alas, the events of the last month show that Europe is just a controlled buffer against the upcoming global claims from Asia – Russia and China.

China has long noted the activities of the United States directed against the rise of the Chinese state. America is trying to prevent Asian regionalism, led by China, as well as to prevent it on the way to world domination. Washington even changed the name of its Asia-Pacific strategy to Indo-Pacific in order to integrate India as the only possible counterweight to China. Back in 2007, the United States included India in the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue – the United States, India, Japan, Australia), the sole purpose of which is to contain China. Last year, the union even conducted military exercises in the Bay of Bengal, practicing joint counteraction to the "Chinese threat."

China perceives Taiwan as a rebellious province that should become part of the Chinese state. At the moment, the Chinese are calculating how the Western world will react to their claim. Therefore, China, like Russia, opposed the "further expansion of NATO", implying the growing role of the alliance in the Indo-Pacific region. China is increasing its combat capabilities, modernizing nuclear weapons, claiming almost the entire disputed South China Sea, building artificial islands and deploying military bases. He is engaged in a naval dispute with Japan in the East China Sea and clashes on the borders with India. As planned, regional conflicts are raging everywhere.

Beijing has always disputed American globalization, noting that it discusses the interests of transnational capital. Recently, the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post published the following headline: "The world is against Western domination, not democracy." China and Russia often present a united front against actions that they see as Western interference in their internal affairs. Fully aware of the reasons for the military operation, China considers Russia's reaction in Ukraine excessive and strongly opposes the revival of the Cold War mentality - the creation of confrontation between the blocs. Shortly before the start of the special operation, Russia signed gas and oil contracts with China for $117.5 billion, and Gazprom announced its readiness to design the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline through Mongolia to China. The sanctions are pushing Russia towards an even greater rapprochement with China. To some extent, it is Xi Jinping who now determines what will happen to Russia. Since Russia is cut off from the world, and the Chinese are guided solely by their own interests, they will receive raw materials on more favorable terms, they will want to purchase some military technologies, as well as take part in major Russian energy projects in Asia. China will quietly support Russia, because Russia is a small target, and China is a big one.

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