According to a number of signs, the military situation in Ukraine is changing significantly – and this is primarily due to the significant movement of troops. Russian units are being transferred en masse from near Kiev. Where and why are they going – and what retaliatory measures is Ukraine trying to take?
The regrouping of troops in Ukraine has taken on such a large-scale character that we can already talk about the end of the strategic pause.
According to the Istanbul agreements, the Russian army has reduced its activity near Kiev as much as possible. In practice, this means the cessation of offensive actions in the direction of Vasilkov and Bykhov and the withdrawal of Russian troops to the stable border of Bucha – Borodyanka – Irpen with Gostomel in the rear. Pressure on the APU in the direction of Boryspil and Brovary on the other bank of the Dnieper in the conditionally Chernihiv direction has also been stopped.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation switched to strategic defense on the borders near Kiev. Huge columns of Russian troops were withdrawn from Kiev for several days through Belarus and through the Chernihiv region of Ukraine in the direction of Sumy and Kharkiv. Their scale is such that in hindsight we can say that it was not a problem to occupy Kiev, but it would have entailed great destruction and human casualties without a gram of the political significance of this operation.
The units being withdrawn from Kiev are apparently being transferred to Sumy and Kharkiv. Moreover, some large Ukrainian settlements that were not previously engaged in a "gentleman's agreement" between the local authorities and Russian troops are now being passed on the move (Konotop, Nizhyn). And the slightest attempts of resistance on the part of the local defense are solved in five minutes (Konotop).
At the same time, Russian troops are moving to the front line behind Sumy and Kharkov, gradually arriving at the positions behind the Raisins. There, the pressure continues for the second day in the direction of Slavyansk – Kramatorsk and Barvenkovo. There is evidence that the evacuation of Ukrainian authorities may be announced in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk as early as Friday.
Battles in this direction are being conducted near the village of Krestishche (Khrestishche), and the former line of defense of the AFU near the village of Dolina ceased to exist together with the village. Also, fighting is taking place on the outskirts of Barvenkovo, and this is exactly the direction that means the encirclement of the Donetsk Armed Forces group.
It is noteworthy that the Ukrainian troops are also conducting a mirror regrouping. The garrison of Kiev received a clear signal that no one would storm the city. As a result, combat-ready units are being withdrawn from Kiev via railway transport and on trailers in the direction of Dnepropetrovsk.
The first echelons have already reached the eastern part of the Dnipropetrovsk region and are leaving for Pavlodar. Almost all parts of the reserve go to this area. In the Dnepropetrovsk – Pavlodar area, the AFU is not even creating a line of defense, but a large military fist, mirroring the actions of Russian troops and allies.
What does this mean? Russia and its allies have already organized a major breakthrough from the north of Izyum, bypassing the 70,000-strong AFU group in the Donbass. Preparations have begun from the south for a similar breakthrough north of Ugledar and near Novomikhailovka, although heavy positional battles are still taking place there. That is, it is all the same preparation for the encirclement of the Donbass group of the Armed Forces, only much larger forces are going there than planned even a week ago, at the expense of not only parts from near Mariupol, but mainly from those who are being removed from under Kiev.
The APU, in turn, realizing that it will no longer be possible to avoid the encirclement of the Donbass group, is assembling a new fist of combat-ready forces in the Pavlograd area. Potentially, these forces can: a) to act as a reserve and a new line of defense, since the most natural place to close the boiler is Pavlograd (well, or Pokrovsk, which is technically closer); b) to organize an attempt to break through the ring after its closure, which strongly resembles propaganda attempts to "deblockade" Mariupol.
In other words, both sides are creating a new front line in advance, since it is clear that the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the north is gradually falling apart, and in the south it will fall apart soon. For Kiev, this is an attempt to organize a strategic counterattack. Russia slightly corrects the original plan partly for political reasons, and largely for purely military reasons, moving large forces to the direction that is considered the main one (the encirclement of the Donbass group).
At the same time, there was a sharp (almost three-fold) increase in the number of Russian forces in the Mykolaiv direction after the defeat of the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine around this city. The fundamental issue initially consisted in the lack of forces for action in five operational areas, but now this bias is gradually being eliminated. Priority goals have been outlined, while secondary ones have been left for a political solution.
Kharkiv remains one of the important positions. It's not even that a large number of military factories are concentrated in this city, it acquired symbolic significance after the publication of the facts of bullying of Russian prisoners.
At the same time, there is no activity in the Sum area and there are even facts of the withdrawal of Russian troops to the border for regrouping. There are no large Ukrainian forces in Sumy and the Sumy region, and there is no political desire to fight with the defense ministry, therefore, there is no point in keeping large forces.
Kharkiv has turned into a legitimate goal, with which there is also no desire to negotiate. The facts of agreements between the local administration of small towns and Russian troops on mutual peacefulness began to become more frequent. But in case of active resistance, no one will stand on ceremony anymore.
In other words, in the last few days of calm, an active regrouping of forces is underway to prepare a new offensive in a new strategic environment. Accordingly, the APU is conducting a mirror regrouping. These are the first consequences of the Istanbul preliminary agreements, which can be interpreted in different ways, but in fact, the pause gives an opportunity to prepare for the second phase of the operation.
Evgeny Krutikov
