Russian troops, as well as units of the DPR and LPR, moving towards each other from the north, east and south, will soon have to close a huge cauldron in which the 50-thousandth Donbass group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be. These are the most trained units of the Ukrainian army – they have been in the combat zone since 2014, well trained and strengthened. But only the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbass will allow us to solve other military and political tasks in Ukraine. How will the offensive develop?
All the main tasks of the Russian forces in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions have been completed, now the goal of regrouping our troops is, first of all, the completion of the operation for the complete liberation of Donbass. This statement was made on Wednesday by the Russian Defense Ministry. Following the results of the first stage of the special operation, it was possible to force the enemy to concentrate forces around Kiev and Chernihiv. Thanks to this, the Donbass group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was left without an influx of fresh resources from the West and from the Center of Ukraine, RIA Novosti reports the message of the defense department.
Earlier in the day, the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin said on the air of the channel "Russia 1" – there is every reason to believe that now the operation to liberate Donbass will go much faster. The head of the republic named several directions in which the DPR troops continue to develop the offensive, the official website reported Pushilina.
The defenders of Donbass are moving towards Avdiivka – actually the northern suburbs of Donetsk and Maryinka, located just west of the capital of the republic. Pushilin mentioned two more targets located 30-40 kilometers from Donetsk. These are Novobakhmutovka – to the north, near the highway leading to Kramatorsk, and Novomikhailovka, located southwest of the capital of the DPR.
Pushilin also assessed the situation in Mariupol, which is now being liberated by the DPR forces together with the Russian military and the forces of the Rosgvardiya. According to the head of the republic, the resistance is being provided by disparate groups of national battalions, their cleaning is being carried out. Earlier, the Azov groups were forced out of residential buildings, about 7 thousand militants were blocked in the industrial zone of the Azovstal plant.
According to a source of the newspaper VZGLYAD, there is evidence that at a meeting in Mariupol Ramzan Kadyrov with the commander of the 8th Army, Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev (previously Ukrainian propaganda declared him dead), the timing of the cleaning of Azovstal was discussed. It turned out about a week. But the isolation of the plant's territory on the eastern bank of the Kalmius River allows us to release significant forces for their transfer to other directions already now.
The DPR is pushing back the front line
Thus, it can be concluded from Pushilin's words: after the completion of the Mariupol operation, the DPR troops will focus on "pushing back" the front line (the former line of contact) from Donetsk, Horlivka, Yasinovata and other cities of the Central Donetsk agglomeration, which continue to suffer from shelling by the AFU. So, in particular, on Wednesday, Ukrainian artillery struck Donetsk twice from the Grad MLRS, firing at least 25 missiles in total.
The enemy has "serious fortifications in all the above-mentioned offensive directions, but nevertheless we are moving forward," the Donetsk leader stated. "It is not possible to talk about the deadline yet: everything is associated with many factors. But the fact that the operation is accelerating is already a fact," the head of the republic stressed again. According to him, about 55-60% of the territory of the DPR within its administrative borders has been liberated. Recall that until February 24, the republic controlled only about a quarter of the declared territory.
Even more ambitious (but it should be taken into account the smaller concentration of enemy troops) were the successes in the Luhansk direction. At the moment, the LPR controls at least 90% of the declared territory, almost everywhere the republic has reached the borders proclaimed in 2014. The exception is the agglomeration of Severodonetsk – Lisichansk – Rubezhnoye in the west of the Luhansk region near the border with the DPR. Active fighting continues here.
Impact directions
At the same time, from the beginning of the week, clashes between the Armed Forces of Russia and the Armed Forces of Ukraine continued to the south and southwest of Izyum (Kharkiv region, 44 kilometers in a straight line to Slavyansk, 55 km to Kramatorsk). There were battles in the southern direction near Gulyai-Pole and the above-mentioned Novomikhailovka.
It is to these areas that fresh reinforcements have been transferred in the last few days, as well as those parts of the Russian army, the DPR and the LPR that are being released in Mariupol as the city is being cleaned up. Forces are also being transferred here from the direction of Kherson – Nikolaev. The redeployment became possible after the defeat of the units of the 28th Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which tried to attack in the Kherson direction, which ended on Monday.
According to analysts,
the transfer of troops indicates the preparation of a strike in the coming days on converging directions from the south and north
in order to finally encircle the largest Donbass group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with its subsequent destruction.
"We are talking about the defeat of a group of 40-50 thousand people," military expert Boris Rozhin explained to the newspaper VZGLYAD. – In fact, for the Russian army, this is the largest operation of this kind since the Great Patriotic War. This has its own difficulties. But the enemy is losing, defending. Then everyone is waiting for the start of the second phase, which is associated with an offensive operation to encircle this group."
"The main group is actually divided into two parts. A smaller part of it was surrounded in Mariupol and has already been partially destroyed," Rozhin added. – There is a large group that is defending itself in the area of Donetsk, Horlivka, and there is also a group associated with it that is defending itself in Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. The task is to surround and destroy them."
Offensive from the north: they will not storm Slavyansk "head-on"
"A grouping of Russian troops will be deployed in the Donbass region of Izyum to ensure a further offensive in the direction of Kamenka and other settlements in order to encircle the Ukrainian grouping of troops in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk and Lisichansk-Severodonetsk urban agglomerations," says military expert Andrey Prokaev.
Already now it can be stated: after the defeat of the Ukrainian group near Izyum, a slow but gradual advance of the Russian Armed Forces began to the south directly to Slavyansk and to the southwest to Barvenkovo. This creates prerequisites for movement from north to south in order to close the cauldron around the Donbass group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The resistance in this area was serious, but gradually the front began to shift. Now Russian troops have gained a foothold on the southern bank of the Seversky Donets and continue to accumulate forces there.
The Svyatogorsky Holy Dormition Monastery, conveniently located on the high bank of the river and turned into a defensive position by the APU and the Terbats, also falls into a semi-circle. In a straight line to Slavyansk, there are about 10 kilometers left, but, according to experts, most likely, no one will storm the fortified agglomeration of Slavyansk - Kramatorsk head–on.
"There are fortified areas on the line of contact, which are marked by important points – Avdiivka, Slavyansk, Severodonetsk, Lisichansk and Krasnoznamensk," recalled Alexey Leonkov, editor–in-chief of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine.
According to Prokaev, Russian troops will need to protect the flanks in order to avoid attacks on them during the offensive. "We are opposed in Donbass by experienced units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they have been fighting there since 2014, have headquarters, warehouses, fortifications. In addition, Ukrainian bombers will blow up the remaining bridges, and this factor should also be taken into account by the Russian military during the offensive," the analyst noted.
Offensive from the southwest: the key role of Gulyai-Pole
Russian troops are "waiting for the cleanup of Mariupol to be completed in order to transfer additional forces to the Zaporozhye direction," Rozhin believes. In turn, the Ukrainian General Staff decided to strengthen the southern flank of the Donbass group at the expense of assault units – the 95th Zhytomyr and 25th Dnieper odshbr (separate amphibious assault brigades).
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine planned to recapture Volnovakha, recently liberated by the forces of the DPR, and "unblock" Mariupol. But Kiev's calculations were not justified. The above-mentioned two amphibious assault brigades, abandoned in the area from Gulyai-Pole to Ugledar, are gradually rolling back north to Novomikhailovka and further to Kurakhovo, driving themselves into the cauldron, analysts say.
A breakthrough near Novomikhailovka and near Gulyai-Pole will destroy the entire front of the AFU, and therefore it is to these areas that the released units and reinforcements are being transferred. Experts believe that the occupation of Novomikhailovka by Russian units will lead to a breakthrough of the front with access to Kurakhovo – this is already 50 km from Donetsk. Parts of the DPR in the same place are slowly moving west through Marinka. The fighting is already underway in the area of the main landfill, dominating the steppe, up to Kurakhovo. All this threatens the Ukrainian group west of Donetsk with a boiler.
How the ticks will close
"The goal is to get to the rear of this group, advancing along converging directions of the north and south," Rozhin noted in turn. – In the end, it is necessary to cut the Donetsk – Pavlograd highway, along which the main supply of the Armed Forces in the Donbass goes." To explain, Pavlograd is a city in the east of the Dnipropetrovsk region, about 150 kilometers northwest of Donetsk.
As previously reported, Russian aircraft and Kalibry missiles from the sea destroyed a key AFU facility – a railway junction in Pavlograd, which the Ukrainian military is hastily trying to restore. Russian troops "can advance through Slavyansk, Barvenkovo or through Lugovoye in the direction of Pavlograd itself," Rozhin noted. "Of course, no one will disclose what kind of plan the command will choose," the expert explained.
"The troops who now have to "reset" the 50-thousandth grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will act on the principle of "divide and destroy"
– large enemy formations will be "cut" into separate pockets of resistance, and then thoroughly destroyed," the expert says. At the same time, according to the interlocutor, all types of weapons will be used: artillery, mortars, multiple launch rocket systems, precision weapons and aviation weapons systems.
What's next?
"When the entire Donbass group is liquidated, we will release a significant number of our Armed Forces, as well as the forces of the LPR and DPR," Leonkov suggested. – They will continue their offensive to the west, where they will unite with those groups of troops that entered the territory of Ukraine from the north. And then they will carry out the tasks that they face: demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine."
According to experts, the initial strategic plan aimed at destroying the largest groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Security Forces, destroying the military infrastructure of Ukraine and depriving it of its military potential has not changed. But only after the defeat of the Donbass group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Security Forces, the issue will be resolved in other directions, including in Mykolaiv, Odessa, Krivoy Rog, Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk. At the same time, Russia in Ukraine is dealing with the largest army in Europe (except for the Turks) and is trying to solve the issue with "little blood".
Evgeny Krutikov, Daria Volkova, Alyona Zadorozhnaya
