How to counter the US and NATO's bet on a proxy conflict
In the XXI century, hybrid military conflicts have become one of the most common forms of interstate confrontation. And the hybrid war turns from a kind of confrontation between individual states and their coalitions into a global hybrid war (MGW).
The transition of modern conflicts from the classical linear paradigm to nonlinear wars of a new type is being carried out. The highest form of modern warfare is "the war of civilizations, that is, the war of the meanings of their existence." The winner in the war of meanings does not win the space and even the right to dispose of the resources of the defeated state, but wins the right to determine its future.
The unique instruments of the war of civilizations are hybrid and proxy war, color revolution.
The World War is already underway
Hybrid warfare should be understood as the coordinated use by the aggressor country of numerous types (tools) of violence aimed at the vulnerabilities of the target country, covering the entire spectrum of social functions to achieve a synergistic effect and subjugate the enemy to his will.
MGV is, in fact, a project of transferring power and wealth from nation-states to supranational corporations, a narrow group of global elites. The gain that the United States is counting on, acting as the main sponsor of the MGV (pumping weapons into Ukraine, large-scale information and propaganda processing of its population, a global Russophobic campaign, etc.) in the long term is doubtful and hidden in the fog of uncertainty.
It is possible that Americans will be pushed away from the global feeder by other forces that are clearly not showing themselves today. The United States has lost its political and moral leadership in the world. And in the resulting vacuum, it will no longer be states that will act, but global corporations that will take over the management of the world as their own property.
Klaus Schwab, one of the authoritative ideologists of globalism, speaks cynically and frankly about this prospect. He does not hide that the nation-state has no place in the model of the new world described by him in the book "COVID-19: the Great Reset": "If democracy and globalization expand, then there will be no place for the nation-state."
The main idea of Schwab's book: the world will never be the same, the COVID-19 project has changed it irrevocably, and therefore the globalists intend to take this world for themselves and rebuild it according to their own understanding.
In this context, the MGV as a global tool for constructing a new world is a multidimensional intercivilizational military conflict, during which the parties resort to the purposeful adaptive use of both military-power struggle and economic strangulation of the enemy, the use of subversive information and cyber technologies (see " The world hybrid war in the strategy of the USA and NATO ", "HBO" from 02/24/12).
The set of operations of the MGV is aimed at the simultaneous destruction of all the main geopolitical spaces of the rival society – that is, at its absolute crushing.
Puppets and puppeteers
The complex dynamics of the MGV has given new shades to the well-known phenomenon of proxy wars with a centuries-old history.
In general, proxy warfare is understood as a strategy in which one side encourages or uses the other side to participate in the war for its own strategic purposes. Increasingly, geopolitical opponents are fighting among themselves on the territories of third countries with someone else's hands.
Proxy wars help to exhaust a geopolitical opponent, create a lot of internal problems for him, and undermine his reputation at the international level. At one time, US President Dwight Eisenhower defined proxy wars as "wars that are waged by someone else's hands." The classic definition was given by the American political scientist Karl Deutsch: "A proxy war is an international conflict between two countries that are trying to achieve their own goals through military actions taking place on the territory and using the resources of a third country under the guise of resolving an internal conflict in this third country."
Each of the above definitions reflects separate facets of the special military operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation taking place in Ukraine. It is not a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is a conflict between Russia and the United States, initiated by Washington and waging war indirectly - by the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries. The United States and NATO provide Ukraine as a party to the conflict with military, organizational, resource, political and other support.
In terms of scale, a proxy war can have a local, regional and global scope. The involvement in the conflict in Ukraine of several dozen European and North American states, members of NATO, the EU and neutral countries gives it a regional character in the presence of a threat of escalating into a global conflict.
The following factors are common to hybrid interstate military conflict and proxy war:
- maintaining the role of nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence and ensuring strategic and political stability;
- the propensity of countries with nuclear weapons to engage in various types of violence through the use of indirect, non-military action technologies;
- the emergence of international terrorist organizations resorting to "non-classical" methods of violence and drug trafficking for self-financing in order to realize their political goals (private military companies (PMCs) closely adjoin this group of subjects of military conflicts, the main motive for their activities is material);
- the dependence of national economies generated by globalization on the situation in the world economy;
- extensive and carefully synchronized use of hybrid information, economic and military threats;
- the diffusion of military power, providing access to many States and non-governmental organizations to modern means of destruction, including nuclear, chemical and biological;
- the formation of new opportunities for influence with the involvement of artificial intelligence technologies to manage global information and psychological operations for disinformation and manipulation of the consciousness of the population of countries and continents, strengthening the confrontation in space and cyberspace.
The development of a regional proxy war is fraught with the threat of a military conflict escalating into a major military clash. The refusal of the United States and NATO from legal guarantees of Russia's security, accompanied by the introduction of illegal sanctions, external opposition to a special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, the supply of weapons, the provision of intelligence information against the background of the apparent inadequacy of the ruling elites of Kiev, increases the likelihood of a major conflict by malice or by mistake due to a misinterpretation of the intentions of one of the parties.
As a result, the world has entered a phase of economic recession and a crisis of global governance, accompanied by an increase in protectionist and isolationist sentiments. Humanitarian, cultural, and tourist exchanges, as well as contacts between people in general, are seriously limited.
The War of ideas and meanings
Interpretations of the formulas of the "gray zone", "hybrid war" and "proxy war" have taken an increasingly prominent place in the understanding of the latest trends in the military sphere in recent years. Taking into account the properties of these phenomena is very important for the modern theory of war, primarily as a socio-political phenomenon and for the development of adequate offensive and defensive strategies.
The comparison of hybrid and proxy warfare allows us to identify common and special characteristics of conflicts.
First, let us recall that Karl von Clausewitz in his work "On War" noted: "War does not begin – or, in any case, it should not, acting reasonably, start a war - until it is established what we want to achieve through war and during it. The first is the meaning of the war, the second is its purpose."
The meaning of the special military operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is the transformation of Ukraine into a friendly, neutral state. Among the main political conditions are the legislative consolidation of the non-aligned status of Ukraine with a complete ban on the deployment of NATO military bases and strike weapons systems on its territory, the trial of Nazi criminals who committed crimes against citizens of Ukraine and Donbass, the recognition of Crimea as Russian, and the DPR and LPR as independent states.
The strategic objectives of the operation are demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.
The definition of the hybrid war of the United States and NATO against Russia as a "war of civilizations" reflects the main vector of the hybrid war strategy and gives completeness to the strategy itself, since it is in the ideas that the highest goals of the war, the meanings of national existence, and even more so of civilizational existence, are encoded.
Washington's commanding voice is clearly heard in different parts of the world. Photos from the website www.marines.mil
The war of meanings forms the core of the hybrid war strategy, the purpose of which is to ensure the systematic establishment of control over all aspects of the life of the state - the object of hybrid aggression. And above all, control over the mentality of its population.
Secondly, there is no difference in the sense of goals between a proxy war and a conventional war. The proxy war is used by Washington in Ukraine only to reduce the risks of retaliatory actions, which is especially significant when nuclear powers are involved in the conflict. A proxy war by itself does not negate the possibility of a transition to a conventional war with a bet on superior military technology, economic power and advantage in human resources.
Thirdly, the strategy of hybrid warfare is based on the coordinated use of military and non-military methods of interstate confrontation. A proxy war is an international conflict between countries that are trying to achieve their goals through military actions taking place on the territory and using the resources of a third country under the guise of resolving an internal conflict in that third country.
Fourth, both hybrid and proxy warfare are based on a strategy of exhaustion and can last for many years. An example of a long proxy war is the confrontation between the United States and Russia in Syria with the participation of some other states in the region, as well as the wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Africa and the Middle East. The proxy war differs in the nature and composition of the forces involved and plays an increasing role in the strategies of the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other regional players in the Greater Middle East and its periphery.
Fifth, a hybrid war can be waged without the open use of the Armed Forces and without a declaration of war, it includes a proxy conflict. Depending on the scale of the hybrid and proxy war, the goals may be reformatting the geopolitical picture of the world, changing the foundations of the world order; establishing control over resources and markets, communications and technologies; changing national borders; splitting or reformatting national identity.
In the current century, the role and frequency of the use of hybrid and proxy wars will increase. This is due to a combination of characteristics such as relative cheapness, efficiency, lack of international legal assessment of these types of military conflicts and the appearance of non-interference.
The Shift towards Proxy Wars
Several prevailing trends contribute to the shift of forms and methods of confrontation to strategies of hybrid and proxy wars:
1. Globalization and liberalization of markets and currencies, integration of transport, information and economy generates a new network of state, corporate and individual interests. This trend creates Washington's interest in unleashing and solving proxy wars in key areas of the world in its favor.
For example, in the Greater Middle East and its Eurasian periphery, proxy wars today exceed the threat level of the late Cold War. Attempts by Washington and NATO to expand their zone to the borders of Russia, which was done in 2008 during the proxy war in Georgia and is being implemented today in Ukraine, give special urgency to the threats of proxy wars.
2. The inability to accurately determine and control the scope and threats of proxy wars of the XXI century, the lack of an international legal framework for assessing the conflict create political and military problems for international organizations and states involved in the confrontation both on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.
3. Paramilitary formations, militias and PMCs play an important role in the strategies of proxy wars waged by the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and some other regional players in the Greater Middle East and its periphery. With the support of the United States and NATO, the use of mercenaries in Ukraine is expanding. An attempt to unleash a proxy war was recently made in Kazakhstan. Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, and the countries of Central Asia remain in the sights of proxy wars.
4. The conduct of proxy wars contributes to the aggravation of interstate confrontation, where one side is represented by Russia and China, and the other by the United States.
The discovery by Russian troops of the Pentagon's biological laboratories in Ukraine and the existence of similar facilities in the Caucasus and Central Asia suggests that the United States has been developing biological weapons aimed at Russia and China for a long time. And COVID-19 strains were purposefully created in the United States for use primarily against China. It has been documented that experiments with the bat coronavirus were conducted in these biological laboratories – the same one that allegedly was released from the Chinese laboratory in Wuhan and caused a "pandemic". Thus, the military biological component is part of the American strategy of the MGV and proxy war.
5. The diffusion of military power, military modernization and expanded access to modern means of warfare give new opportunities to many States, which leads to a change in the regional balance of power. The proliferation or threat of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction leads to a change in the relative weight in world politics of such regional rivals as Israel, Turkey, Iran, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and some other Gulf States.
Alliances are changing – the promise to accept Ukraine and Georgia into NATO remains in force. The intensity of attempts to draw neutral Sweden and Finland into the alliance is increasing. AUKUS has been formed in the Asia-Pacific region – a trilateral military alliance consisting of the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom. A quadrilateral QUAD security dialogue is being created (Australia, India, the USA and Japan).
The Russian model of confrontation
The essence of the proxy war in Ukraine lies in the specifics of the relationship between, on the one hand, the contracting state and the organizer of the war (the United States), and on the other hand, the agent–performer (Ukraine) in the context of the war that the United States and NATO are waging against Russia.
Improving Russia's ability to counter the threat of hybrid and proxy wars, color revolutions that focus on war by indirect means, should be carried out taking into account the fact that common features may arise between different types of conflicts in different historical periods, based on their common problems between the customer-sponsor and agent.
The solution of a complex problem requires the adaptation of Russia's national security system to the challenges and threats posed by a new type of conflict. The success of adaptation will crucially depend on the ability to form new knowledge about hybrid threats in a timely manner and, on this basis, determine the strategy of the state as a whole, priorities for the construction of the armed Forces, the development of the economy and the cultural and ideological sphere. It is required to synthesize the knowledge available and obtained in the course of research in order to form a concept of modern conflicts and a model of counteraction.
The Russian model of countering hybrid and proxy wars and the color revolution should be built taking into account the nonlinear configuration of attacking forces and reflect the following key tasks of protecting the state:
1. The ability to react quickly and decisively to conflicts, the nonlinear nature of which makes it possible to achieve significant results with relatively small disturbing influences. The skillful use of Ukraine in the hybrid war of the collective West against Russia testifies to the extremely destructive potential and danger of nonlinear conflicts, the counteraction of which requires a decisive and rapid reaction. On the other hand, the brilliantly conducted operation on the annexation of Crimea, the successful development of a special military operation and the actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria show the effectiveness of Russian nonlinear strategies of confrontation in modern conflicts.
2. The transition from the form of covering the space of the political, socio-economic, cultural and ideological spheres of the state to functional control over the most strategically important elements of each sphere. In the foreign policy sphere, it is necessary to focus the main efforts on Ukraine, which is being used by Russia's opponents as a powerful anti-Russian battering ram in a hybrid war. In the medium term, Ukraine has already become the main determinant of Russian foreign policy, overlapping our relations with the United States and the EU.
3. Ensuring the possibility of operational concentration of critical efforts and resources in the most threatened place. Today, these are the fronts of information and economic warfare, ensuring the cybersecurity of critical infrastructure. In the military and information spheres, the main efforts should be focused again on a comprehensive counteraction to the current regime in Kiev and the forces supporting it. But in the long term, it will not be limited to Kiev alone.
It is necessary to analyze the reasons why the enemy managed to achieve success in the information and psychological war in Ukraine, to turn part of the Ukrainian people into a kind of mankurts - Nazis and Russophobes. Recall that in the novel by Chingiz Aitmatov "The Blizzard Way Station", mankurt is a captured man, turned into a soulless slave state, completely subordinate to the owner and not remembering anything from his previous life. In Ukraine, Washington has been such a master for a long time.
It should be remembered that many peoples of the republics of the former USSR are trying to turn into such mankurts "well-wishers" from the USA, NATO and the EU today. The escalation of Russophobic sentiments, the creation of a network of biological laboratories near the borders of Russia is carried out with the connivance, or even with the direct support of local authorities. If you miss the time, you will need more than one special military operation.
4. Conducting continuous intelligence and its close interaction with the structures of political and military administration in order to implement a strategy that allows you to quickly ensure the creation and use of advantages in the threatened direction. It is important to carefully study intelligence reports, not to dismiss facts that do not fit into the official interpretation of events, and to make the necessary decisions in a timely manner.
Colonel-General F.I. Ladygin, the recently deceased ex-head of the GRU of the General Staff, called for this approach in his speech at the conference of the Club of Military Leaders of Russia. He managed to convincingly show that the "bell of the hybrid war" unleashed by Washington is ringing primarily for Russia.
It can be assumed that in Ukraine and in some other republics of the former USSR, more than one volume of such alarming reports from diplomats and intelligence officers has accumulated over the past decades. It is known what the USSR leadership's ignoring of intelligence reports in the late 1930s and early 1940s led to.
5. And finally, the preparation and proper use of a human resource capable of ensuring the development and implementation of a strategy of confrontation in a hybrid and proxy war. The bet should be placed on professionals of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense and some other structures, on serious analysts, whose opinion should certainly be taken into account when making decisions on issues of national security of Russia.
It is necessary to develop models capable of adequately reflecting new factors of influence on national security, a strategy for countering hybrid military conflicts, proxy wars and technologies of color revolutions. It is necessary to identify a set of properties inherent in a particular type of conflict, to identify new characteristics and a new quality of the conflict, to develop effective preventive measures to prevent the development of the situation according to the anti-Russian scenario.
Such an approach will contribute to the emergence of new knowledge about the conflict and the adequate reflection of the features of counteraction in the doctrinal documents on ensuring Russia's national security and the immediate implementation of preventive counteraction measures.
Alexander Bartosh
Alexander Alexandrovich Bartosh is a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences, an expert of the League of Military Diplomats.
