Foreign Policy (USA): Biden should punish Saudi Arabia for supporting Russia
Saudi Arabia plays an important role in the oil markets, but it chose Russia over the United States, writes FP. The authors of the article advise Biden to rethink the relationship with her and no longer beg the Saudis to pump more oil. The Saudis need to show how risky it is for them to lose their "only stable partner" in the field of security.
Riyadh plays an important role in the oil markets, but it prefers to take the side of fellow dictators rather than the United States.
While the United States and its allies are united against the Russian operation in Ukraine, Saudi Arabia has taken the side of Russia. By refusing to publicly condemn Russia and reaffirming its determination to implement the OPEC+ agreement, the government of this country has weakened its long-standing partnership with the United States.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is being persuaded to increase oil production, but he allegedly refused to talk to American President Joe Biden, although a week before he held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. By refusing to extract and supply oil instead of Russia, the Crown Prince promotes Putin's aggression, allowing him to turn energy resources into weapons in the face of sanctions imposed by the world community and make energy-dependent European countries hostages of Russian oil and gas.
On Monday, the Saudi government still refused to condemn Russia for its actions. Instead, the Saudi Foreign Minister held a conversation with his Russian counterpart and confirmed his readiness to "strengthen and expand bilateral relations."
Despite such intransigence of the Saudis, the Biden administration recently sent additional Patriot anti-missile systems to the kingdom due to the fact that the Houthis are attacking Saudi Arabia's water and energy facilities. Stating that they need the protection of the United States, the Saudis at the same time absolved themselves of responsibility for interruptions in oil supplies caused by such attacks from Yemen. Washington sent them weapons without receiving guarantees that Riyadh would increase production, although ARAMCO promised new investments in the industry.
The reluctance of the Saudis to increase oil production in response to Biden's request indicates a change of loyalties. Throughout the 70-year-old partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia, Washington has acted as the main guarantor of Riyadh's security, and most Saudi monarchs in response have closely coordinated energy policy issues with the United States. But since Mohammed bin Salman came to power in the country, bilateral relations have been deteriorating due to the rash foreign policy decisions of the Saudis, including the seven-year-old war in Yemen and numerous human rights violations, the most egregious example of which was the horrific murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Despite the difficulties in relations, many representatives of the Biden administration continue to declare Washington's loyalty to Saudi Arabia on security issues. Such statements are confirmed by the continued American support for the Saudi war in Yemen. And recently, the United States sold the kingdom a $650 million shipment of weapons to protect against Houthi missiles and drones launched from abroad.
Further, the United States is demonstrating its commitment to other Gulf partners on security issues. Qatar recently received the status of a leading US ally outside of NATO. And when the Houthis launched a series of drone strikes on Abu Dhabi in January, the Americans delivered additional military equipment to the United Arab Emirates. But despite such efforts, the Saudis are demanding additional support from the United States in their war in Yemen in exchange for increased oil production.
In fact, Saudi Arabia has no doubts about American security guarantees. It's just that the Crown Prince wants to consolidate his power.The United States shows that it will support the security of its Gulf partners, but will not strike civilians in order to protect their preferred regime, as authoritarian Arab leaders do. The rulers of the Gulf states believe that America's neutrality during the Arab Spring allowed the rebels in Egypt to overthrow Washington's longtime partner Hosni Mubarak.
Members of the ruling Saudi dynasty believe that it was only thanks to their direct military intervention in Bahrain in 2011 that the Al-Khalifa royal family was saved. The Americans did nothing in that case, although the 5th fleet of the US Navy is concentrated in the harbor of Manama. Since then, the Saudis have been distrustful of the United States, and their paranoia about internal unrest has only intensified. Under King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia began to rapidly develop and strengthen ties with Russia and China.
Like Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the Saudi government prefers an autocratic model of capitalism, as well as an alternative world order, which is based on maintaining authoritarianism and excluding the topic of human rights from the sphere of interstate relations.
Saudi Arabia and other leading countries of the Islamic world are indifferent to the way China and Russia oppress their Muslim minorities. This proves that both are opposed to the observance of human rights. Saudi Arabia and the UAE share Beijing and Moscow's paranoid fear of Islamist movements that could greatly destabilize their regimes.
The King and Crown Prince are actively seeking to isolate and push back the Islamists. For this, they are trying to belittle the importance of Islam for the Saudi national idea and increase the role of the royal family. For example, on February 22, Saudi Arabia celebrated its Foundation Day for the first time. Now the country traces its national origin back to 1727, when Muhammad ibn Saud came to power, and not since 1744, when Saud entered into an alliance with the founder of Wahhabism, Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, in order to strengthen his religious legitimacy and begin territorial expansion.
Many in the West welcomed the Saudi government's decision to strip power from forces such as the religious police and weaken gender segregation. But these changes were also accompanied by unprecedented internal repression. The arrests of human rights defenders, the fight against dissidents abroad, as well as the recent mass execution of 81 prisoners expose the true nature of Mohammed bin Salman's intentions. He wants to completely suppress dissent, including the clergy, who previously enjoyed the support of the state, and the conservative elite, creating the appearance of establishing Western social norms.
The ongoing outrage over Khashoggi's murder and the Crown Prince's political isolation have surely convinced Mohammed that his attempts to rebrand Saudi Arabia in the eyes of the West have failed. At the same time, China and Russia are partners who will never condemn him for the murder of a journalist.
But betting on the provision of security guarantees by China and Russia is quite risky. Unlike the United States, these countries have never defended Saudi Arabia, and they do not have a significant military presence in the Persian Gulf. If Saudi Arabia decides to gradually abandon American-made military equipment and weapons, this process will take decades, and such a refusal will cost it hundreds of billions of dollars.
Further, China and Russia have close and mutually beneficial relations with Iran, and they are unlikely to sacrifice them for the sake of some feelings of the Saudis.In conversations with the Americans, the Saudis have long demanded more reliable guarantees of American protection from Iran and those regional groups that it supports. If Riyadh is ready to ignore such concerns for the sake of partnership with Beijing and Moscow, it becomes clear that it has previously tried to play on Washington's long-standing distrust of Tehran.
Even if the Crown Prince's concerns about Iran are genuine, his concern about internal unrest is still stronger. For this reason, he is ready to give preference to such a partner as Putin, who has proved his determination to preserve the power of Bashar al-Assad in Syria even at the cost of huge civilian casualties. He hopes that if he sides with Russia now, the Kremlin will come to his rescue in a difficult moment, for example, if mass popular protests begin in Saudi Arabia.
Mohammed ibn Salman makes a long-term bet on Putin's support, not wanting to antagonize him with his rapprochement with Western leaders elected for a limited term. The refusal of face-to-face meetings with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and senior American leaders, including National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East Brett McGurk and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, proves that the Saudi Crown Prince has already made a decision. He will not make adjustments to his oil policy, because this will weaken the levers of Putin's energy pressure and reduce the inflow of petrodollars to Russia. Mohammed bin Salman chose Moscow over Washington.
Accordingly, the Biden administration needs to stop asking the Saudis to increase oil production, while it puts pressure on European allies, urging them to abandon Russian fossil fuels. The incompatibility of American democracy and Saudi authoritarianism has long created tension in bilateral relations. It's high time the US stopped begging the Saudis to pump more oil. Now is not the time to help the brutal hydrocarbon dictatorship.
Faced with the unpleasant need to replace Russian oil with oil from Saudi Arabia, Iran or Venezuela, the best of the bad solutions to the problem of price increases for the United States is to restore the Iranian nuclear deal and return Iranian oil to the world market. Oil purchases from Iran will still be limited by the updated terms of the nuclear agreement. And concessions to Saudi (or Venezuelan) demands do not give the United States additional guarantees for the removal of American concerns. In the future, Biden should achieve a reduction in American dependence on fossil fuels, which will protect the US economy from the inevitable shocks caused by surges in oil prices. Only in this case, the American government will be able to abandon duplicitous deals with oil dictators.
It seems that Riyadh takes American protection for granted, despite the recent cooling of relations. This is partly due to the fact that Biden did not fulfill his promise to hold the Crown Prince accountable for the murder of Khashoggi and the destruction of Yemen.
The current American policy of appeasing Saudi Arabia only reinforces the idea of Mohammed bin Salman that Biden needs him more than Riyadh needs Washington. This point of view pushes him to further strengthen the partnership with Russia and China, because he believes that the American government has no choice, and it will continue to support him.
But Biden, taking advantage of the opportunity, should thoroughly rethink American relations with the Saudi monarchy, stop any arms supplies and cancel contracts for the repair and maintenance of military equipment of this country. Only this will show Riyadh how risky it is for it to lose its only stable security partner.
If Mohammed bin Salman persists in supporting his fellow dictators, it will not be a big loss for the United States.
Authors: Khalid Al-Jabri, Annelle Sheline
