Warsaw decided to expel 45 Russian diplomats. Against this background, the United States is pulling troops to the east of Poland to the border with Belarus on the eve of an emergency NATO summit. Members of the alliance will discuss Warsaw's initiative to introduce a contingent to the territory of Ukraine. In response, Moscow indicated that such a step would lead to a direct clash between Russia and NATO. Are Warsaw and Washington really ready for such a development?
The American military units located in Poland are being pulled together to the border with Belarus - this is evidenced by the videos that appeared on the Network. The footage shows how US military equipment is moving near the Polish border checkpoint Bobrovniki, located in the immediate vicinity of the Grodno region. Similarly, American troops are massing in the areas of the Ukrainian-Polish border.
Earlier, the US Permanent Representative to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said: Washington does not want an escalation in Ukraine and does not intend to send its troops there. The White House also stressed that the United States will not send troops even if unconventional weapons are used on the territory of Ukraine. Nevertheless, as Washington points out, other NATO countries can decide for themselves whether they want to send military personnel to Ukraine.
A day earlier, Polish leader Andrzej Duda said at a press conference in Bucharest that the North Atlantic Alliance should consider itself free from obligations arising from the Russia–NATO Founding Act signed in 1997.
According to the Polish President, the presence of NATO troops in Eastern Europe should cease to be temporary and rotational, transforming into a permanent one.
At the same time, earlier, the leader of the ruling Law and Justice party in Poland, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, proposed sending an armed NATO peacekeeping mission to Ukraine. Later, experts in an interview with the newspaper VZGLYAD suggested that by this Kaczynski means a contingent with the participation of several NATO countries, but the alliance itself will not make such decisions. Besides,
if Warsaw invades Ukraine on its own initiative, then the NATO collective defense pact will not apply to it. And many players inciting Poland to military action can take advantage of its ambitions.
Later, Kaczynski's idea was implemented into a project, the details of which are given by the Wiadomosci publication. In particular, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic is working on the idea of creating an international contingent of about 10 thousand people. Its tasks will include ensuring the security of humanitarian corridors, including the creation of no-fly zones over them.
However, Duda is not ready to launch this project until the United States agrees on it, the publication says. Therefore, even before the summit in Brussels, Poland's proposals were sent to the White House, on whose decisions the future fate of this initiative will de facto depend.
The fact that Poland has decided to expel 45 Russian diplomats adds to the urgency of the situation. They must leave the republic within five days. At the same time, Poland does not yet require the departure of the Russian ambassador himself, Sergei Andreev. Later, the Kremlin said that Poland's actions would not remain unanswered.
At the same time, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West against pressure on Moscow and warned that the appearance of North Atlantic Alliance peacekeepers on Ukrainian territory threatens a direct clash between the Armed Forces of Russia and NATO. "This will be the very direct clash of the Russian and NATO armed forces, which everyone not only wanted to avoid, but said that it should not take place in principle," the diplomat noted.
"Warsaw, with the support of the United States, can organize provocations on the border with Belarus and Ukraine. Poland has long concentrated a large military group in the underbelly of Belarus - even when it was hiding behind protection from migrants. By the way, now it can artificially create a migrant crisis again in order to create an escalation at the borders," explained Alexey Dzermant, a researcher at the Institute of Philosophy of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus.
According to him, by such provocations Poland and the United States are trying to pull part of the forces of Belarus from the Ukrainian direction. "Poland may try to take part of the western regions of Ukraine if it receives permission from the United States, and even "on top" of the NATO decision. Warsaw will also make such a decision if it sees that Russia is moving deeper into Ukraine, and Kiev is losing control over the entire territory of the country," the source added. However, the West should understand that the Belarusian army with missile weapons, Special Operations Forces and other units is a serious deterrent, the expert pointed out.
"On our part, the authorities are trying not to raise the level of anxiety, so as not to play on the opponent's field, which escalates the situation through Ukrainian and Western information resources. At the same time, Lukashenka clearly indicates that Belarus will not allow the West to stab Russia in the back," the analyst recalled.
As for the United States, the movement of troops near the borders with Belarus and Ukraine is in the nature of psychological pressure. In this way, NATO is trying to demonstrate that it will not retreat from its positions and will not allow the spread of the Ukrainian crisis to the alliance states, American political scientist Malek Dudakov believes.
"The possibility that some peacekeeping forces may be sent to the west of Ukraine is being actively discussed now. And we understand that this issue will be discussed at the upcoming summit in Brussels, as well as during Biden's visit to Warsaw," Dudakov added.
"We have yet to see the official position of Joe Biden, who is still trying to maintain NATO's formal neutrality in the Ukrainian crisis. But he may well change his position if he is persuaded by the NATO member countries of Eastern Europe," the analyst stressed.
A different point of view is held by the political scientist-Americanist Dmitry Drobnitsky. According to him, American equipment on the eastern flank of NATO is necessary to create a sanitary cordon - "so that people with weapons do not pass through the ways that Ukrainian refugees got to Europe earlier."
"It cannot be ruled out that the movements are connected with Biden's upcoming visit to the NATO summit in Brussels. Now we are seeing an unprecedented US military presence in Europe since the 90s, but it is not critically serious and does not yet pose a great threat. The alliance demonstrates its unity in the face of "danger from the east," the political scientist stressed.
According to Drobnitsky, the concentration of American troops in eastern Poland is temporary, since such spending is not provided for by the US budget. In addition, the political scientist doubted that peacekeeping missions on the initiative of Poland would enter the territory of Ukraine or begin to pose a danger to Belarus.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya, Rafael Fakhrutdinov
