Military expert Andrey Frolov - on the likelihood of sending S-300 anti-aircraft systems to help Kiev
The middle of the week was marked by new approaches in the policy of the United States and NATO regarding military assistance to Ukraine. The issue of supplying Kiev with Soviet-made anti-aircraft systems in service with Bulgaria and Slovakia came on the agenda. This issue is the point of negotiations between US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and the leadership of these Eastern European countries, scheduled for the near future. It was reported that Slovakia had already allegedly given preliminary consent to this deal.
Officially, nothing was said about the specific systems that are planned to be transferred to the APU, but the "circle of suspects" is not so large. In the case of Slovakia, we are talking about the S-300PMU air defense system division, as well as the Strela-10M air defense system battery. Despite its relatively well-deserved age, the Slovak S-300 system, according to open sources, was in combat-ready condition and was included in the NATO air defense system. The main problem with the complex was the small number of serviceable 55B55R missiles delivered back in 1990. This forced them to be on combat duty with only two such missiles instead of the regular four. In the 2000s, the issue of purchasing new ammunition in Russia was being worked out, but for various reasons this contract did not reach practical implementation. On the other hand, this complex has been mastered by Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners, and after the destruction of the Ukrainian S-300PT and S-300PS, there are trained personnel who can quickly master the familiar complex for themselves.
As for the Strela-10M air defense system, Slovakia had only one battery of these machines (apparently, no more than 10 launchers) and the condition of these complexes is unknown. Similarly, the S-300 air defense system in Ukraine has personnel trained in the operation of these air defense systems, which also serves as a justification for this choice.
Finally, it should be noted that Slovakia had a certain number of Igla-1 MANPADS received from Russia in 1996 (a total of 72 MANPADS were transferred). It is unknown how many of them are combat-ready today, but it is very likely that they will be transferred to Ukraine. Moreover, there are already precedents for the supply of air defense systems from Eastern Europe and the Baltic states.
With regard to Bulgaria, we can talk about two divisions of the S-3000P air defense system with 10 launchers. The condition of these complexes is unknown, but it is very likely that it is even worse than in the case of Slovakia. Their transfer will strengthen Ukraine's air defense a little, but it will allow Bulgaria to dispose of them beautifully, earning some political capital on this deal.
Note that the S-300PMU1 air defense system is also in service with Greece, and in significant quantities (32 launchers and 175 missiles). Although Greece did not sound like a possible donor of air defense systems for Ukraine, the transfer of the S-300 looks unlikely, since it is the most powerful means of air defense from the Greeks, and against the background of the aggravation of relations with Turkey (which purchased the most advanced version of the S-400 air defense system), they are unlikely to decide to significantly weaken their defenses in Athens. Moreover, in this case, it will take time to retrain for this complex of Ukrainian calculations.
Thus, even in the case of the transfer of Slovak and Bulgarian S-300 complexes to Ukraine, at best we can talk about a full-blooded three-division regiment equipped with various modifications of the S-300 air defense system. The question remains open about the presence in Ukraine of such a number of military personnel who can master these complexes in a short time, as well as the general technical condition of these systems.
The question of their transfer to Ukraine remains open, since when transported overland across the borders with Romania, Slovakia or Poland, they are likely to be destroyed by the Russian Aerospace Forces immediately after crossing the border. But even if they manage to deploy in combat positions (apparently, in the area of military bases in Western Ukraine) they will also be destroyed, in the same way as it was in the case of purely Ukrainian complexes.
As for the battery of the Slovak Strela-10M and Igla-1 MANPADS, then against the background of almost 1000 Stinger MANPADS from the USA and Lithuania, Piorun MANPADS from Poland, as well as hundreds of Igla and Igla-1 MANPADS that were in service with the APU, these complexes are clearly they will make up a statistical error and will contribute little to improving the defense capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The conclusion is that this story has primarily a political and economic connotation. Practical steps to help Ukraine are publicly announced, which actually cost nothing, since we are talking about morally and physically outdated systems. At the same time, Slovakia and Bulgaria have an excellent opportunity to dispose of them at the expense of the same USA, without resorting to spending their very modest military budget funds.
Andrey Frolov
