Emil Sokolov: Rumen Radev's idea of neutrality is a service to Russia (Facti, Bulgaria)
Bulgarian President Rumen Radev said that "Bulgarian planes with Bulgarian crews should protect the airspace" of the country, according to Facti. In these words, political scientist Emil Sokolov saw Radev's attempt to serve the interests of Russia, betrayal and a call to draw a dividing line between NATO and Bulgaria.
Fact: "Bulgarian planes with Bulgarian crews must guard the Bulgarian airspace." Mr. Sokolov, do you think President Rumen Radev's statement characterizes him as a patriot or does it speak of his attempts to serve the interests of Russia?
Emil Sokolov: The president's words are wrapped in a patriotic package. The problem is that the president, as a pilot who has been associated with military aviation for many years, cannot but know that Bulgaria is not capable of defending its skies alone, or at least will not be able to do it well. We don't even have the technical means to do this. And if the president realizes that we need the support and assistance of partners, this is a wake-up call. Then why all this talk about how we ourselves have to cope with everything. This is all very reminiscent of the rhetoric of Stefan Yanev (former Bulgarian Defense Minister), his words that Bulgaria should be defended by a Bulgarian battalion consisting of Bulgarian soldiers.
Such rhetoric draws an invisible dividing line between Bulgaria and NATO, as if Bulgaria is not a member of NATO, as if NATO troops are not troops, including Bulgaria, as if NATO troops are not guarding Bulgaria. As if NATO is a military force that we should avoid and remain neutral in order not to anger Russia. In other words, President Radev, his entourage and part of the military elite, generals, hiding behind pretended patriotism and words about neutrality, which sound fair in theory, in practice call for a reduction [of NATO's presence in Bulgaria], urge Bulgaria not to oppose Russia in any way, urge Bulgaria to continue to be dependent on Russia. That's what's behind these words.
Rumen Radev, Stefan Yanev and the generals are intelligent, knowledgeable and adequate people. They know exactly what they are doing. For Bulgaria, the words about neutrality are a transition to the side of Russia. Talk about Bulgarian neutrality, that Bulgaria will not ask for help from NATO and send weapons to Ukraine - this creates Rumen Radev's idea of neutrality, which satisfies Russia, but does not satisfy Bulgaria and the Bulgarian national interest, no matter how patriotic, grandiloquent and attractive it may sound.
– You mentioned Stefan Yanev, who recently left the post of Defense Minister. Yanev remains dangerous?
- Personally, I see Stefan Yanev as a serious threat to democracy. The problem is not in Stefan Yanev as a person, but in Stefan Yanev as a politician, especially in his recent political speeches. There is an alarming trend: he does not call things by their proper names and does not just propagandize, but misleads and manipulates public opinion. Surely in the future he will create a party and present it in a patriotic wrapper like "let's show moderation, let's not take sides, let's listen to both points of view." Yanev's party will be a party of people who evaluate everything independently. Maybe you can call it that – "Everyone evaluates himself."
It will be another party using rather ridiculous arguments and pursuing a pro-Russian line in Bulgarian politics. In all likelihood, he will deprive the Vozrozhdenie party of the electorate – it may not pass into the next parliament, and Yanev will have much more than 4%. He will take votes from Vozrozhdenie and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), will become a kind of club against Prime Minister Kirill Petkov, who tried to emancipate himself from Radev.
– Did Petkov succeed in emancipation?
– I would not say that it was a success, it is still in the process, it is still far from complete emancipation. A sign of real emancipation would be sending military aid to Ukraine - at least bulletproof vests and helmets. Then it would be possible to talk about some emancipation of Kirill Petkov – and not only from Rumen Radev, but also from the BSP.
At the level of rhetoric, Kirill Petkov is doing well, but not when it comes to concrete actions (for example, Bulgaria needs to abandon the repair of MiGs in Russia – the decision is shifted to the People's Assembly, Bulgaria needs to send military aid to Ukraine – Bulgaria votes so that budget money goes to the Russian military-industrial complex). This can be seen even in relation to refugees: Bulgaria (not people – the state) is not coping. Self-organization and charitable initiatives of citizens deserve praise.
– You have already mentioned BSP. Ninova, the Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, continues to say with pride that we have not sent a single bulletproof vest to Ukraine. Is it possible to break the BSP?
- At the moment, the BSP makes all decisions alone. And although officially there are coalitions of three parties (BSP, "There are such people", "Democratic Bulgaria"), we do not see that the ruling majority of "We Continue Changes" (the party of the Prime Minister) and "Democratic Bulgaria" put up serious resistance to BSP. I suspect that "There are such people" support BSP in its attempts to blackmail the government and prevent it from effectively helping Ukraine and refugees. (...)
– Do you think new elections are waiting for us?
– At the moment, I don't think so, unless some incredible corruption scandal happens or the price crisis gets completely out of control. (...)
– US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will visit Bulgaria – what does this visit mean?
– I think the United States, like Europe, is worried about the words about Bulgaria's neutrality and Bulgaria's unwillingness to actively participate in NATO initiatives - especially when these words come from President Rumen Radev and do not meet sufficient opposition from Kirill Petkov.
I think this is what countries should discuss. The argument that if Bulgaria is neutral, it will be able to defend its interests is absolutely untenable. In fact, we are now seeing the opposite - we do not have the means for self-defense, this is more than obvious, and our refusal to support and protect NATO makes it almost impossible for Bulgaria to defend its interests and actively participate in the life of the European Union. This cannot but cause concern among our partners - in the European Union, in the United States and in NATO.
GERB (the party of former Bulgarian Prime Minister Borisov) cannot wait to say: "If we were in power, this would not have happened." The truth is that it is very difficult for Bulgarian politicians to solve any problem related to Russia – part of society is pro-Russian. We must not forget that the Borisov government has long served Russia's energy interests, which is why Bulgaria now has to struggle with its energy dependence on Russia. This makes it very difficult to emancipate and take a firmer position. The possibility of economic racketeering by Russia makes any Bulgarian government unstable.
– Despite everything that the GERB party has done, including the construction of the Turkish Stream, which has put us into energy dependence, do you think that Borisov will be able to deceive the people and come to power again?
- of course. It is proved that GERB is a hybrid party pretending to be Euro-Atlantic, but in fact serving the interests of Russia. A similar party is now being created by Stefan Yanev – a center-left and patriotic shell, behind which the Russophile essence is hidden. Yanev's party will be a bigger Russophile than GERB, although both parties should not be underestimated.
There is a great danger that in the next election we will have to choose between two Russian hybrids – between "a little more European" and frankly "red". (...)
The essence of these political organizations is to put the interests of Russia above the interests of Bulgaria. Organizations of this kind parasitize on the fears and insecurities of people and are especially active in conditions of instability and economic crisis.
Iliyana Marinkova
