Beijing and Moscow: Marriage of convenience (Al Araby Al Jadeed, UK)
The Russian-Chinese statement issued after the meeting of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Beijing on February 4 cannot be called an ordinary gesture, writes Al Araby Al Jadeed. Rather, the points and demands voiced in it are revolutionary in nature, as they are directed against the existing international system with its legal norms and liberal values.
Moscow and Beijing are calling for an alternative, multipolar system in which the two authoritarian regimes would have strong positions and great influence, as well as take part in managing regional and global crises on a par with the United States. The 5,300-word statement became a kind of raised red card in the face of Washington and the world order led by it, and outlined the topics on which it should change its approach. This is the problem of Taiwan, Russian demands in the field of security, the refusal to create new military alliances and the expansion of NATO. If the United States meets them halfway, it can be regarded as agreeing to change the rules of the game in the international system, participating in negotiations to develop an alternative, and if they refuse, as participating in a zero–sum confrontation.
The Russian-Chinese document indicates the scale and level of cooperation between the two countries, affecting the field of security, space, the Internet, climate change and artificial intelligence, where "friendship has no limits" and "there are no forbidden zones." The new agreement, which goes beyond the framework of the Treaty on Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation signed in 2001, according to the Russian President, consolidates an unprecedented strategic partnership. As the Chinese President noted, it will have far-reaching consequences for China, Russia and the whole world.
The statement says about the direct support of the Russian president in the conflict with the United States and NATO over Ukraine, and it also promises to support his security requirements. This was confirmed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, calling legitimate Russian concerns about NATO expansion. For its part, Russia supports the so-called "one China policy", which is based on the recognition of Taiwan as part of China and the rejection of any form of independence of the island.
Over the past two decades, we have witnessed the rapid development of Russian-Chinese military-economic relations in response to the position of the United States, according to which both States are considered a threat to America's national security, as well as interference in their internal affairs through the promotion of liberal values and monitoring of human rights violations. In addition, the Americans actively hinder the realization of their ambitions, limiting the political and military actions of Moscow and Beijing, as well as their regional and global influence by deploying huge military resources in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
They are also going against China's ambitions in the South and East China Seas by forming military and political alliances in the region. We are talking about the AUKUS Alliance (USA, Australia, Great Britain), the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (USA, Japan, India and Australia), as well as the Western initiative called "Restore the World better than before" (Build Back Better World), put forward by the G7 countries as an alternative to the Chinese One Belt project, one way" (provides assistance to poor and developing countries in the development of their infrastructure and economy). Do not forget about Russia's opposition - the intention to include Ukraine in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization by involving its forces in military exercises and providing them with advanced weapons and economic support.
In response, numerous Russian-Chinese military exercises are conducted at sea and on land, joint patrols and maneuvers in the Indian and Pacific Oceans with the participation of thousands of military personnel on a very vast territory. In a report last year, the US Naval Institute pointed to the sequence of military exercises of the armed forces of the two countries, their serious scale and ever-increasing geographical extent, the sale of Russian advanced weapons to Beijing, the expansion of their territories in Asia and Europe, taking into account the nuclear status of both states, which turned this alliance into a game-changing factor in militarily and diplomatically. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the growing trade exchange and the signing of long-term contracts worth billions of dollars in the field of energy, in particular, for the import of large volumes of Russian oil and gas and the construction of pipelines for their transportation directly to China.
The growing tension and political and diplomatic confrontation with the United States over geopolitical and geostrategic issues led to a Russian-Chinese consensus on the international security system, which has a Western basis, where the Americans determine the rules of its functioning and decision-making mechanisms. They see the need to resist such an order and change it by establishing an alternative multipolar international system.
Western experts regarded the Sino-Russian statement as a political and military challenge to the existing international order and a comprehensive plan to confront the United States as a superpower and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as the cornerstone of international security and liberal democracy. As stated in the joint document, there is no universal approach for all States in the field of democracy. According to experts, the statement in its content is intended to establish a new era in the international system and marks a turning point in the new cold war.
However, it is impossible to interpret the development of Sino-Russian relations outside of the current political moment and its consequences. We are talking about American actions to contain China and protect Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion, as well as the expansion of NATO to Russia's western borders with the inclusion of Eastern European countries, especially Ukraine and Georgia, and the deployment of advanced military equipment on their territory. As a result, current political events have forced Moscow and Beijing to unite and take a common position hostile to the United States. They will support each other on issues that are important to them, but this does not detract from the existing differences of views and conflict of interests. For example, China proceeds from the need to maintain stability at the regional and global levels, worrying about the future of its "One Belt, One Road" project and commercial interests in relation to the countries of Central Asia and Europe. As a result, he opposes foreign interference in the affairs of states, which makes him consider the tactics of the Russian president as a factor of destabilization that harms the interests of Beijing.
At the same time, in light of the tension in relations with the United States due to the change in the balance of power, as well as in connection with the Taiwan issue, China really benefits from Russian policy in Ukraine, since it attracts the attention of Americans, allowing them to distract from the situation in Asia and attempts to upset Beijing's geopolitical plans. The latter sees Putin as a partner capable of destabilizing the Western alliance. Now the United States has distracted itself from containing China, but at the same time it does not want a final break with the Americans and the European Union, since this promises the loss of a huge commodity exchange, especially if the alienation is accompanied by sanctions that can have a significant impact on Chinese companies, since their priority is full access to markets. As a result, Beijing is not interested in Moscow's support harming its own interests, including those related to regional and global political stability and security. This is what encourages Chinese leaders to distance themselves and maintain impartiality, arguing that conflict resolution by diplomatic means is preferable.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, who signed the Sino-Russian statement of support for Moscow, in a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin called for resolving the crisis with Ukraine through negotiations, and China's permanent representative to the UN Zhang Jun - to exercise restraint and resolve differences through diplomacy. In addition, the Chinese authorities did not allow two banks, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the state-owned Bank of China, to approve loans in dollars for the purchase of Russian goods ready for export. This indicates an interest in stability, since Russian policy directly affects the flow of oil and gas to China from Central Asia, disrupting the supply chains of goods.
"Putin is Beijing's headache," said Karl Minzner, senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. According to Wang Huiyao, head of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based analytical institution, the Chinese want to have good relations with the United States, as evidenced by the decision to abstain from adopting a resolution during a vote at a meeting of the Security Council [UNGA].
While the United States seeks to distance Russia and China from each other, the latter copes with pressure by supporting Moscow's security demands, as this serves the purpose of reducing American power. However, there are factors limiting Beijing's assistance. We are talking primarily about trade and financial relations with the European Union and the United States. Open support for Russian policy will jeopardize the major investment agreement that Beijing is trying to conclude with the European Union, as well as expose the country to destructive secondary sanctions from the Americans. On the other hand, Washington's actions are being carefully evaluated as a test of a possible response to its own battle for Taiwan. Finally, China gets an opportunity to weaken Russia, its geopolitical rival in Central Asia, as the end result of the events in Ukraine with their consequences for international relations.
Ali Abdallah (اللي العبدالله)
