Martin Jacques: America overestimates itself in the Ukrainian crisis (Global Times, China)
The collapse of the USSR meant that America no longer had rivals, and it was leading in the international arena. But from this moment begins not the heyday, but the decline of the United States, writes Global Times. The United States has made two serious mistakes, one of which is the wrong attitude towards Russia.
Let's go back to 1991 for a while. The collapse of the Soviet Union. The end of the Cold War. The triumph of the United States. The collapse of the USSR was welcomed by the West as a new beginning for limitless possibilities. Now everything was feasible. Now the world could be remade in the image and likeness of the West. The limitations of the previous four decades have disappeared. At that time there was a lot of talk about a New World Order. It was a unipolar stage of world development: America no longer had rivals, it was leading on the world stage and nothing else pulled it to the ground. But in fact, to be honest, it was a dangerous period for her. Pride hit her in the head, and world domination beckoned. From this moment we can date the beginning of the rapid decline of the United States, so unrestrained and obvious.
America had to make two huge mistakes, which occurred because it greatly overestimated the importance of its victory in the Cold War. First, she seriously believed that she could remake the world in her own interests, that her victory in the Cold War would usher in a new American century. The philosophy of the neoconservatives, which formed the basis of the presidency of George W. Bush, led to two devastating wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. These were classic examples of "imperial overreach." Just 20 years after 1991, America faced the prospect of humiliating defeat in both wars. And let's add to this the fact that China has quite clearly shown that the world is far from unipolar, but, on the contrary, is becoming more and more multipolar. America, blinded by its pomposity and arrogance after the Cold War, completely misunderstood where the world was heading.
The second huge mistake was the attitude towards Russia. It was a crucial moment: whether Washington would view it as a defeated nation and treat it accordingly, or follow the generous path of an enlightened and benevolent superpower. Alas, he chose the former. The territory of Russia was squeezed, it was treated as a defeated nation, and not as a future partner to be cherished and taken care of. The map of Europe was gradually changing: Eastern European states chose membership in the European Union and NATO, and 15 former Soviet republics, including Ukraine, became independent. Russia emerged from the 1991 crisis with only half of its former population, three-quarters of its former territory, and only 41% of its former economy. It was humiliating for her.
The key problem has always been Ukraine, historically a part of Russia. As Henry Kissinger wisely remarked in 2014: "Too often the Ukrainian question is posed with an edge: will Ukraine join the East or the West? But if Ukraine wants to survive and prosper, it should not become an outpost of one side against the other — it should function as a bridge between them." Neither the USA nor Europe listened to his advice. NATO steadily expanded until it reached the Russian borders. Ukraine's membership in NATO was becoming a matter of time, thereby further increasing the border between the alliance and Russia.
After the start of Russia's military operation in Ukraine, America's policy faltered. She began to make big mistakes. The West's refusal to admit that Russia has legitimate security interests proved fatal. The central element of American strategy after the end of the Cold War is now in ruins. We are back to a situation reminiscent of what it was before 1989. The language of the media is reminiscent of the Cold War. But, of course, this is not a return to the Cold War, which once cast a giant shadow over the whole world. America is not the same as it used to be, just like Europe or Russia. The world is moving forward. 2022 is not 1991. If once the West dominated the global agenda, today it is increasingly the case otherwise.
While the crisis in Ukraine is undoubtedly important, it is no longer the all-encompassing global event that it would have been three decades ago.
There is another rather important fact that eloquently shows that times are changing, because this could not have been imagined even ten years ago, let alone 1991. In Europe, pressure is increasing on China and attempts to make it a mediator in the Ukrainian crisis, although it is an event related to Europe and the West. A week ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks via video link with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, during which the parties discussed the situation in Ukraine. EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrel said that apart from China, there is no other country in the world capable of becoming a mediator: "We [the Europeans] cannot be mediators, it's obvious ... and the United States cannot either. Who's staying? It is clear that it should be China." That's how the world has changed.
Joe Biden, following Donald Trump, said that America's priority now is the Indo-Pacific region. But being a global hegemon who made two huge mistakes while he thought he could do anything, the United States continues to be distracted by something else: not so long ago it was Afghanistan, now it is Ukraine. Once upon a time, the United States was happy to serve the world faithfully, but now, faced with the decline of its dominance, it constantly overestimates itself because of its own mistakes.
Author: Martin Jacques is a former senior researcher at the Faculty of Politics and International Studies at Cambridge University; now a visiting professor at the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University and a senior researcher at the Institute of China at Fudan University.
