Cumhuriyet (Turkey): building a "new world order"
The joint statement of Putin and Xi and Russia's military operation in Ukraine are two major events in terms of creating a new world order, Cumhuriyet writes. The author of the article shares his assumptions about the future world order. One thing is clear: the United States will no longer be able to be the sole sovereign.
The "Joint Statement" signed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 4, 2022, and the military operation launched by Russia on February 24, 2022 are two critically important complementary events in terms of building a new world order.
The aforementioned statement, which I called in this column on February 10, 2022, "a statement about a new world order," openly manifested "a new period, a new alignment of forces, a new order." And the military operation that started on February 24, in fact, refers to the question of how the NATO belt around Russia will turn into a neutral belt and how the architecture of European security will be formed. And this, of course, concerns the future of the transatlantic alliance.
Today I will try to draw a projection of this new world order using the available, but still "raw" data.
A split in NATO and an independent Europe
1. The expansion of NATO towards Russia since 1999 and the transformation of the 16-member alliance into a 30-member structure has come to an end. Membership of Ukraine and Georgia is no longer possible. Moreover, some of the Baltic and Eastern European countries in the coming period will seek to continue their membership in NATO exclusively at the political level.
2. The differences within the 30-member NATO, which began with France's statement about "brain death" and became even more apparent with the determination of the position on the Ukrainian crisis, will lead to the fact that some countries will suspend military membership in the alliance, while others will completely withdraw from NATO. The very existence of NATO will be seriously questioned.
3. Germany and France will strive to make the European Union an important political and economic center of the new world order. The way to this, of course, lies through the creation of a European army and the proclamation of an EU strategy independent of the United States.
4. The process of building the architecture of European security, begun by the United States after the collapse of the USSR by dividing Yugoslavia into eight parts, has ended. The new architecture of European security will ultimately be shaped by Germany - France and Russia.
The end of the Single Currency model
5. The US attempts to integrate the EU and India into its main strategy against Russia and China, respectively, fail. In the new world order, the EU and India will act as independent centers.
6. The UN order will be revised, updated and strengthened. New schemes will appear, including permanent membership of Germany and India in the Security Council.
7. The dominant role will belong not to the G7, with the help of which the United States runs the "liberal order", but to the G20 to match the new order.
8. The place of the "unipolar model of the economy" will be taken by the "multipolar model". The institutions of the old liberal order, such as the single currency (dollar), the single bank (World Bank), the single financial institution (IMF), the single banking system (SWIFT), will change when the weight of new centers in these institutions increases, while new centers will create alternatives to these institutions. (As a matter of fact, alternatives have already begun to appear, such as the currency basket and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank).
9. The World Trade Organization will be updated in accordance with the new order. The dominance of the Atlantic in international trade law will be balanced, and it will become more equitable.
Place of Turkey
Thus, the order that the United States began to build in 1945 and in which they have been trying to be the sole sovereign since 1991 is now changing. A new world is being formed in which not only the United States, but also China, the EU, Russia, and India act as global centers of power...
In this regard, we must consider the issue not through a narrow prism, but on the basis of the interests of the oppressed and developing countries of the world.
On the other hand, all this, as we mentioned above– is just a projection that we are trying to build based on the available "raw" data. We will continue to discuss and develop this topic.
A separate issue that needs to be discussed is what Turkey's place will be in this new order. To begin with, I can say the following. On one side of the scale is the probability that Turkey will take its place in the new European security architecture by joining the Russia–Germany–France trio as the fourth player, and on the other side is the probability that Turkey will join the USA– Great Britain–Israel trio. The first is the position that "independent Turkey" will be able to take in the new world order, and the second is the preservation of the current position of "Turkey tied to the Atlantic." Which cup will outweigh will depend on the course of the internal political struggle.
Mehmet Ali Gulle r
