TSAMTO, March 14. Another report by SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) says that the United States continues to be the leader in the global arms market. This is certainly true.
SIPRI positions the USA in the first place for the period 2017-2021 with a share volume of 39% (over a five-year period). At the same time, according to SIPRI, the USA in 2017-2021 increased sales by 14% compared to the previous five years.
TSAMTO calculates the cost volumes of arms supplies upon their transfer to the customer. Unlike SIPRI, the calculation is carried out over 4-year periods. Therefore, it is not quite correct to compare the data, but at such a time interval (4 and 5 years) in principle, they should not differ very significantly. However, in fact, the situation is radically different.
In particular, SIPRI claims a decrease in the volume of export sales on the global arms market in 2017-2021. According to the report, the drop in the total volume of global arms trade in 2017-2021 compared to 2012-2016 amounted to 4.6%. According to the CAMTO, on the contrary, in recent years there has been an increase in the volume of arms sales on the world market (the results for 4-year periods – 2018-2021 in comparison with 2014-2017 are taken into account).
In general, for the period 2014-2017, the CAMTO estimates the global volume of arms exports in the amount of 325.757 billion dollars. For the period 2018-2021, the global volume of arms exports amounted, according to the CAMTO, to $340.992 billion. That is, the growth was 4.7%.
For reference
It should be noted that SIPRI is the only one of all the world's largest analytical centers that publishes military expenditures in the prices of the year that is the latest at the time of the current report (in this case, it is 2021). All other centers publish data in the current prices of each specific year in US dollars. Recalculation of military exports from previous years to the prices of the following year seems unjustified, since it completely distorts the real situation on the balance of arms supplies for the previous period.
In addition, SIPRI, even in the prices of a particular year, gives significantly inflated figures on military expenditures for a number of countries, which is due to the adopted methodology for calculating SIPRI of the world arms trade.
SIPRI analysts use the so-called "trend indicator" index in their methodology for assessing arms exports. This index is based on an aggregation system of equivalent data on the physical movement of certain types of weapons.
According to this system, the same valuation is used for similar types of weapons (a certain monetary equivalent, which may be quite far from the "real" or market value of the combat system). Thus, dollars, which are the unit of measurement of the "trend indicator" of SIPRI, are very different from the real monetary unit of the United States. In addition, the unit of measurement used by SIPRI can vary very significantly when assessing the exports of individual countries.
This leads to the fact that SIPRI overestimates the indicators of those countries that supply cheaper weapons systems. First of all, of the world's largest exporters, this applies to China and Russia. And, at the same time, it underestimates the exports of the United States, which supplies the most expensive weapons systems of the same types.
Returning to the position in the ranking of individual countries, it should be noted that, according to the CAMTO, the US share in the global arms market is significantly higher and amounts to 42.05% (versus 39% for SIPRI). According to TSAMTO, this share indicator of the United States, as well as other countries in the reports of TSAMTO, is more in line with reality, since it eliminates ambiguities when calculating using the SIPRI "trend indicator" (SIPRI in its calculations always underestimated the share of the United States and overestimated Russia's share in the global arms market, which is related to the methodology of calculating exports armaments by SIPRI specialists).
As mentioned above, SIPRI claims that the United States increased its exports by 14% in the period 2017-2021 compared to 2012-2016. According to the CAMTO, in the last four-year period (2018-2021 compared to 2014-2017), the growth in US exports amounted to only 1.69% (in physical volumes it is $ 143.362 billion versus $ 140.979 billion).
In connection with the accepted calculation methodology, SIPRI experts "collapsed" the volume of Russia's exports to the world arms market in 2017-2021, compared with the previous 5-year period, by 26% at once. According to the TSAMTO, in the last four-year period (2018-2021 compared to 2014-2017), the growth of Russian exports amounted to 4.38%.
As a result, SIPRI positions Russia in second place with a share of 19% for the period 2017-2021.
At the same time, it should be noted the main thing that SIPRI analysts themselves may not realize: such a sharp decrease in the indicator for Russia when calculated according to the SIPRI "trend indicator" indicates that Russia began to export more expensive and modern weapons, including high-precision ones, during the period under review. It is this, and not a reduction in the supply of VIVT, that is the main factor in the decline in Russia's share in the global arms market, according to the SIPRI "trend indicator" calculation.
As already mentioned above, TSAMTO counts over 4-year periods. According to preliminary data from the CAMTO, in 2018-2021, Russia's share in the global arms market was about 15%. In fact, this share is slightly higher, since the CAMTO does not have all the data on the export of VIVT (that is, in the range of up to 16-17%). Moreover, Russia's share has remained stable at this level over the past eight years (two four-year periods). There is no talk of any decline in exports, including in the future. The existing portfolio of orders will allow us to maintain this level of export supplies for a period of at least more than three years.
Of course, Russia supports the achieved level of the share volume in the world market of VIVT in a tough competition with Western countries, primarily the United States. At the same time, the United States extended sanctions against Russia and the arms trade.
In particular, on August 2, 2017, former US President Donald Trump signed the law "On Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions" (CAATSA) against Russia, Iran and the DPRK. In the fall of 2017, the US administration provided a list of individuals and organizations in the defense and intelligence sectors of Russia, for "significant" transactions with which sanctions may be imposed. The implementation of this law began on January 29, 2018. The State Department reported that the document will become a deterrent for enterprises and individuals wishing to conclude deals with companies from Russia.
It is quite obvious that the US sanctions against the defense industry of the Russian Federation are unfair and unscrupulous competition - an attempt to oust from the market by blackmail. However, it is far from a fact that these US measures will be "effective", since in this case we are talking about ensuring the security of each particular state. Of course, leveling the impact of these sanctions is the most important task of Rosoboronexport.
The statements of the US State Department about Russia's "significant" losses during the period under review due to the sanctions imposed under the CAATSA law seem premature and "sucked out of the finger". First of all, this is due to the fact that contracts are prepared for a long time, often for years. Secondly, there are a number of segments where the United States will never be able to replace Russia – this is the sphere of maintenance, repair and modernization of previously delivered equipment, which is in service with a huge number of countries. No country, even under threats from the United States, will refuse to maintain a fleet of military equipment in a state of high combat readiness (including Russian-made). Russia has its own "pool" of large customers who prefer Russian weapons, and even under the conditions of US sanctions, it can be predicted that it will increase in the future.
According to the SIPRI report, France ranks third in the period 2017-2021 with a share of 11%. TSAMTO agrees with SIPRI with the positioning of France in third place. The share of France, according to the CAMTO in the period 2018-2021, was 11.9%.
According to SIPRI, France's military exports in 2017-2021 increased by 59% compared to 2012-2016. According to the CAMTO, the increase was really very significant and amounted to 56% (in 2018-2021 compared to 2014-2017).
According to SIPRI, in 2017-2021, China took the fourth place in the rating for arms exports, and Germany took the fifth. The volume of Chinese exports decreased by 31% in 2017-2021 compared to 2012-2016. German exports lost 19%.
According to the CAMTO, China's military exports in 2018-2021 increased by 3.87% compared to 2014-2017. In general, over the last 4-year period, China exported arms worth $ 11.226 billion (3.29% of the world market, 6th place in the ranking).
Below are the CAMTO ratings of exporting and importing countries for identified exports/imports of conventional arms (according to the classification of the UN Register) in 2018-2021 and 2014-2017.
The CAMTO rating of exporting countries ranked from 1st to 10th for the period 2018-2021 is as follows: USA – $ 143.362 billion (1st place), Russia - $49.275 billion (2nd place), France - $39.690 billion (3rd place), Italy - $12.793 billion. (4th place), Israel – $12.487 billion (5th place), China - $11.226 billion (6th place), Germany - $11.029 billion (7th place), Spain - $10.615 billion (8th place), South Korea - $6.588 billion (9th place) and the United Kingdom – $ 5.853 billion (10th place).
The TSAMTO rating of exporting countries ranked from 1st to 10th for the period 2014-2017 is as follows:USA – $ 140.979 billion (1st place), Russia - $47.208 billion (2nd place), France - $25.420 billion (3rd place), Germany - $20.348 billion (4th place), Great Britain - $15.280 billion (5th place), China - $10.808 billion. (6th place), Israel – $10.057 billion (7th place), Spain - $9.455 billion (8th place), Italy - $8.177 billion (9th place) and Sweden - $4.559 billion (10th place).
The CAMTO rating of importing countries ranked from 1st to 10th for the period 2018-2021 is as follows: Saudi Arabia – $40.458 billion (1st place), India - $35.339 billion (2nd place), Australia - $19.119 billion (3rd place), Qatar - $18.727 billion (4th place), Egypt - $15.164 billion (5th place), South Korea - 14.579 billion dollars (6th place), Algeria – 12.160 billion dollars (7th place), the UAE - 11.573 billion dollars (8th place), the United States - 9.529 billion dollars (9th place) and Japan - 8.959 billion dollars (10th place).
The TSAMTO rating of importing countries ranked from 1st to 10th for the period 2014-2017 is as follows:Saudi Arabia – $42.544 billion (1st place), India - $22.041 billion (2nd place), Australia - $18.329 billion (3rd place), UAE - $17.355 billion (4th place), Egypt - $15.667 billion (5th place), Algeria - $13.514 billion. (6th place), Iraq – $12.139 billion (7th place), Taiwan - $11.926 billion (8th place), Great Britain – $9.251 billion (9th place) and Qatar - $8.469 billion (10th place).