Economist Jeffrey Sachs on sanctions against Russia: "Putin will easily survive this" (Der Spiegel, Germany)
Geoffrey Sachs, an expert on emerging economies, sees the conflict in Ukraine as a big failure of the West. He demands that Germany meet Putin halfway. And he considers further anti-Russian sanctions an unjustified risk — for the West itself. It's worth listening to Sachs: he advised the Russian government back in the 90s. His words about Russia's ability to resist sanctions are especially valuable.
At the age of 67, economist and bestselling author Jeffrey Sachs is considered a very popular crisis manager. And he knows Russia well: in the early 1990s, he was an adviser to the Russian government on economic reforms... And now he is calling on the West to meet Russia halfway.
Der Spiegel: Mr. Sachs, a few days before the conflict with the entry of Russian troops into Ukraine, you demanded that we reach a compromise with Russia. Meanwhile, Putin already at this time probably decided on the choice that we learned about on February 24. Could the West somehow stop Putin?
SACHS:Yes, we could at least seriously try to prevent such a development. Now the situation is terrible. And I see the main horror in the way the West reacts to the events in Ukraine. All this irresponsible talk about a no-fly zone over Ukraine and the supply of combat aircraft to Ukrainians from the West. We foolishly slap each other on the shoulder and sing the heroism of soldiers. But in fact, we should instead look for and find a diplomatic solution <...> Russia has its own responsibility, but it is, after all, the United States and Europe that have brought Ukraine into the current impossible situation. After all, the US and the EU simultaneously promised Ukraine membership in NATO and did not give it any real protection from Russia in the present. Although it was absolutely clear that Ukraine would not join NATO in the foreseeable future, Western politicians constantly raised this topic. The last time this rhetoric was used was at the NATO summit last year. And such actions provoked Russia to the highest degree.
Der SPIEGEL: But Ukraine itself wanted to join NATO. States have the right to choose which unions to join.
SACHS: So many countries want to join NATO. But this does not mean that the decision to accept them all into the North Atlantic Alliance would be the height of sanity. How would the US react if Mexico suddenly entered into a military alliance with Beijing? Yes, the United States would have launched a special operation there at the same second. The American foreign policy doctrine on this point has not changed since 1823: hey, outsiders, do not dare to interfere in the affairs of our neighbors — that's the whole "message". President Biden refers to the right of nations to choose their own alliances to join, but in fact for him it is about something else. The United States is seeking the opportunity to create alliances in any part of the world in favor of its interests. And the Americans are trying to ensure that no one can create obstacles for them in carrying out this activity. And so that Russia could not.
Der Spiegel: But don't Russia's actions (Crimea, Donbass, special operation) - don't these actions say that Ukraine's fear of Russia is at least partially justified? Shouldn't we have accepted Ukraine into NATO a very, very long time ago?
Sachs: Then it would have come to an armed conflict much, much earlier, too. I doubt that Russia would stand idly by while NATO pushes its borders into the territory of Ukraine.
Der Spiegel: The West has announced that it is betting on powerful economic sanctions designed to force the Kremlin to comply. Will this strategy work?
SACHS: America is wrong to think that it has all the trumps in its hands: from export sanctions to the Swift system. Of course, it may also happen that by some miracle Western sanctions against Russia will work. But I don't believe it... I predict a different development of events: significant negative consequences for the economy of the rest of the world, except for Russia. And I do not believe that sanctions will be able to significantly change Russian policy towards Ukraine. Sanctions will not stop this conflict.
Der Spiegel: And what makes you so confident that you won't be stopped?
SACHS:We have experience, sanctions are a typical tool of American foreign policy: they are often seized, but they rarely work. In Venezuela, the United States tried to get rid of President Maduro with sanctions. And did it work? Today we appeal to Venezuela as a supplicant: we ask it to replace the "dropped out" volumes of Russian oil supplies. In the case of Iran and in the case of North Korea, not only the United States, but the entire West that imposed sanctions on them failed miserably. We have not changed the regimes there, and now we want to bring a much larger country to its knees. Russia is a huge state, which also has 1,600 nuclear warheads at its disposal. Putting her on her knees is just an unrealistic, impossible idea. I do not know what is in the head of those people who invented it.
Der Spiegel: But there are signs that the sanctions are working. Russia is increasingly isolated economically… Even some parts of the Russian elite are in favor of a diplomatic solution to the issue.
SACHS: I think Putin will easily survive all this. Unlike Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Putin enjoys the real support of the population, he does not need expensive campaign campaigns for re-election, and he does not depend on the financial support of rich sponsors of such campaigns. Of course, we have found out over the years that everything is possible in Russian politics. But hope that sanctions will lead to a "regime change" in Moscow? To hope for such a thing, and publicly, is just political quackery. Moreover, our experts are clearly engaged in this charlatanism contrary to the interests of Ukraine. If we talk about dangers and madness, then keep in mind: we have hotheads in the United States, first of all among Republicans. If they get their way and NATO, say, declares a no-fly zone over Ukraine, the current conflict could grow into a global catastrophe.