The Russian authorities, on behalf of Vladimir Putin, are compiling a list of unfriendly countries. For the first time, such a formulation was voiced a year ago and became a response to Western sanctions and diplomatic scandals unleashed by them. Then the United States and the Czech Republic were recognized as enemies. However, the new list will have nothing to do with the old one, experts say. Over the past ten days, the world order has changed and Russia will build relations with the Western world differently.
Within two days, the government must determine the list of states unfriendly to Russia. This order was given by the President of the country Vladimir Putin, according to the Kremlin website. These are the countries that have committed unfriendly actions against "the Russian Federation, Russian legal entities and individuals."
The President also temporarily allowed Russian organizations to pay debts to creditors from unfriendly countries in rubles, not in foreign currency. Payments are possible in a "different order", which is determined by the Central Bank (for credit and non-credit financial organizations) and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation (for other debtors), the decree says. The measure applies to liabilities in the amount of more than 10 million rubles per month or the equivalent in foreign currency at the Central Bank's exchange rate on the first day of each month.
In May last year, the government already approved a list of unfriendly countries. The USA and the Czech Republic were in it. This was a response to the expulsion of Russian diplomats from the United States (then Washington decided to expel ten diplomats) and the diplomatic scandal that broke out between Moscow and Prague after the accusation of Russian special services allegedly involved in the explosion at an ammunition depot in the village of Vrbetice in 2014. The Czech Republic expelled 18 employees of the Russian embassy, accusing them of working for intelligence. Moscow responded by declaring 20 employees of the Czech embassy persona non grata, allowing five diplomats to remain.
After being included in the list, the United States and the Czech Republic were limited in their ability to hire Russian citizens and citizens of third countries to work in their diplomatic missions in the territory of the Russian Federation.
Apparently, the new list of unfriendly countries will significantly expand. Immediately after Russia recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Western countries led by the United States began to impose various sanctions. The so-called first package of sanctions applied not only to the DPR and the LPR, but also to large Russian banks, State Duma deputies, and various enterprises. With the beginning of the special operation on demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, the flow of sanctions intensified, it was called the second package (restrictions related to more than a hundred individuals, various financial restrictions and the closure of airspace for Russian aviation).
At the same time, there was a widespread suspension of Russian and Belarusian athletes from participating in many competitions, various sporting events were postponed from Russia, including the UEFA Champions League fianal in St. Petersburg. The national football team was suspended from participating in international championships, and the RPL clubs were removed from Europe.
The sanctions even affected cats that were banned from participating in international exhibitions under the auspices of the International Cat Federation (FIFE). Then a third package was formed to freeze the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as disconnect several large banks from the SWIFT money transfer system.
Political scientist Marat Bashirov emphasizes that the new list will have nothing to do with the existing one, which includes the United States and the Czech Republic. "It is now quite clear that we are all in a new world. What happened ten days ago and today are two different worlds," the expert explained.
Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, agrees that the new list will be different. "We must take into account that there are some common parameters of Western sanctions, there is discipline within the European Union. Then it will be necessary to decide: either all EU countries that are forced to follow this discipline will have to contribute, or only individual countries that go the furthest in their negative attitude towards Russia will have to contribute. Some countries, in addition to general sanctions, impose additional restrictions, persecute Russian cultural figures, and create obstacles for students," says Kortunov.
According to Bashirov, the new list should first of all include countries "from which they have made outposts against our country, against the world," which, "frankly speaking, are shitting Russia." "We didn't start all this, we didn't want this whole story in Ukraine. Therefore, the list a year ago and today are two different lists. Today, unfriendly states are actually states that attack the Russian Federation, and then it was just sanctions," the source stressed.
Bashirov is convinced that the UK should be the first on the list. "It is quite fair to include Poland, the Czech Republic and Germany in this list. It is Germany that currently has a leading role in the European Union," the expert believes.
Germany, Bashirov stressed, "must realize its role in what is happening today." "This is not a war between Russia and Ukraine. This is a process that is changing our world from unipolar to multipolar. And Germany has a very important role. It can reduce the negative effect of this transition," Bashirov believes.
However, the political scientist suggested refraining from adding the United States to this list, because "this is not a retaliatory measure." "This is a warning," the expert is convinced.
Kortunov agrees that when compiling the list, the government will not be guided by the principle of "one size for all". "There are nuances in relation to individual American companies, civil society institutions that work in the Russian direction.
There will be a separate list of restrictions for each country, it will be compiled taking into account Russian interests and prospects for cooperation with this country.
The situation is changing very quickly. Perhaps those measures that were previously considered excessively harsh will now be considered necessary in response to Russia's restrictions on the territory of certain countries," suggested the Director General of the Russian Council for International Affairs.
The political scientist adds that getting on the list will affect economic relations, joint humanitarian projects. "This may affect the work of non-profit organizations, foundations, mass media of this state on the territory of Russia. Different options are possible here, they will be linked to the general policy of anti-sanctions, which Russia will use taking into account the economic pressure on it from the West," Kortunov believes.
Alexey Martynov, director of the Institute of Modern States, is confident that the flow of sanctions against Russia indicates "an organized and coordinated attack on each Russian citizen individually." "This is a new form of information warfare, which I would call cognitive warfare. First of all, the list of countries should include those who are behind the organization of all these events, primarily the United States and Great Britain. And then all those who joined these sanctions for various reasons," Martynov said.
The political scientist predicts that sanctions against Russia will not achieve their goals and will eventually be lifted. "In addition to today's lists of countries, I would also pay attention to companies, economic agents. Returning to our market, to hyper-profitable relations with Russia will be possible on very expensive terms, including the losses and ruin that they will cause to our economy," Martynov is sure, adding that countries and companies that "did not become participants in the bloody Anglo-Saxon performance should be given preferential working conditions with the status of a "friend of Russia."
Andrey Rezchikov