Global Times (China): new US sanctions against the Russian defense industry "will not have a serious impact"
America has announced sanctions against the Russian defense industry, but this is a mistake, writes Global Times. The effectiveness of the restrictions is questionable, since Russia does not resort to Western developments.
In an attempt to cause serious damage to Russian developers and manufacturers of weapons and to strike at the Russian armed forces during the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, the United States recently announced new sanctions against the Russian defense industry. The media started talking about how it would also affect the arms trade, which is a vital source of income for Moscow.
But sanctions are not as effective as it seems to the United States, since the Russian defense industry is independent and does not depend on Western technologies. And the use of Russian military equipment in real combat conditions will become a high-quality advertisement for it and increase the demand for weapons from Russia, as analysts said on Friday.
In their opinion, the United States is also unlikely to impose sanctions against India, which buys Russian weapons in large quantities, since they still want to use it to exert pressure on China.
As the American edition of Defense News reported on Thursday, the sanctions of the State Department, which were announced on Wednesday, are directed against 22 Russian enterprises producing combat aircraft, infantry fighting vehicles, electronic warfare systems, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles for the armed forces.
The White House said that sanctions against the Russian defense sector will cause serious damage to Russian developers and manufacturers of weapons.
However, Chinese military expert and TV commentator Song Zhongping told the Global Times on Friday that the new US sanctions will not be a crushing blow for Russia. According to him, it is well known that Russia develops weapons and military equipment independently and very rarely uses Western technologies.
If sanctions increase the cost of weapons and military equipment, it will be the result of inflation, Sun added. He noted that Russia will be able to overcome the financial sanctions imposed against it.
Defense News reports that the sanctions will affect the export of Russian weapons. It is noted that Russia ranks second in the world in the export of military equipment and weapons after the United States, receiving more than $ 13 billion annually from such sales. This is data from the Congressional Research Service.
On Wednesday, a U.S. State Department official told lawmakers that Russia is unlikely to be able to make new deliveries and service weapons systems already sold.
The export of weapons and military equipment is the most important source of income for Russia. But although sanctions against this sector will be a serious blow to it, in fact, everything is not so simple, analysts say.
"We need to look at the list of sanctions against the military industry from different sides. Dividing everything into categories, recipient countries and payment methods, we will not understand what the consequences will be for the Russian defense industry and foreign trade. But in general, the consequences should not be serious," an expert on Russia, who asked not to be named, told the Global Times.
Russia sells its weapons mainly to India, Turkey and Iran. Apart from Turkey, which is a member of NATO, the rest of the countries are not controlled by the United States, this expert said. "Since Iran is disconnected from SWIFT, it has to make payments for purchases of Russian military equipment in other ways that are not controlled by America," he said.
Energy resources account for about 50% of Russia's total foreign trade and bring it 40% of budget revenues. Agricultural products account for about 10%.
As Sun noted, Russian weapons may even become much more popular in international markets because they have been tested in battles. Military actions are the best and only way to demonstrate the characteristics and capabilities of weapons, and since they are used in combat conditions, Russia will not lose its international market, but on the contrary, will increase its share in it.
Even before the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, the United States tried to strike at arms exports from Russia by imposing sanctions against buyers. This to some extent gave the result, but the high demand for Russian weapons remains, as a Beijing military expert told the Global Times, who asked not to be named.
In 2017, the United States adopted the law "On Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions", which gives Washington the right to impose punitive measures against transactions with the Russian defense sector and with intelligence agencies. But this law also provides for some exceptions.
Because of the events in Ukraine, the West seeks to inflict massive damage on Russia, and therefore the Biden administration is considering imposing sanctions against India for having created a large arsenal of Russian weapons and continues to rely on military equipment from Russia.
But it will not be easy for the United States to make a decision on this issue, because they pin their hopes on India as a counterweight to China and as a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), as an anonymous expert said.
India is unlikely to abandon its long-standing and close military ties with Russia, and if the United States imposes sanctions against it, its Indo-Pacific strategy directed against China will seriously suffer.
Authors: Liu Xuanzun and Chi Jingyi