Die Welt (Germany): Vladimir Putin has powerful states on his side
Back in 2014, after the second Maidan, the West expressed a desire to isolate Russia, and in recent days this desire has become an obsession. But the German "Welt" is skeptical about the "successes" of the EU and The USA is in this case. The world's largest countries by population owe a lot to Russia. In addition, they have their own scores with the Western countries — their former colonial masters.
There are states all over the world that cut ties with the Russian government. But only people from Western countries think that the Kremlin has fallen into isolation. There are also capitals that stand on Putin's side, and these include at least three states that govern the most populous countries on Earth.
It seems that after the attack on Ukraine, the isolation of Russian President Vladimir Putin has intensified. The heads of Western states and governments are trying to distance themselves loudly from Russia, announcing the severance of all ties... But if you look closely, you can see that even in the UN, a huge part of the countries of the world behave with restraint. They are the most important nodes of Putin's network.
Serbia
It is noteworthy that Serbia's pro-government newspapers have been writing since the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. After Putin recognized the independence of the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine (meaning the DPR and LPR - approx. InoSMI) tabloid newspaper Informer was published under the headline "Americans are pushing the world into chaos - Ukraine has attacked Russia!" The day after the start of the war on the front page of another Serbian newspaper Objektiv was: "The Russians will occupy Ukraine in one day."
The mood in Serbia is openly pro-Russian - both among a part of the population and in the government. But the West has the opportunity to influence Belgrade: Serbia is a candidate for EU membership. Nevertheless, President Alexander Vucic did not support sanctions against Moscow. In addition, Belgrade receives Russian weapons systems.
It turns out that Putin's friend Vucic has been playing on the contradictions of the West and Russia for a long time, benefiting from one side or the other. "In peacetime, this may be possible," says political analyst Srdjan Majstorovich. "But I don't think that during the conflict this pragmatic approach of Vucic will work."
Political scientist Maistrovich believes that this is an opportunity given to Brussels to close the open flank in the eastern Balkans, reducing Russia's influence there: "The EU cannot gain geopolitical autonomy if the Western Balkans are under the influence of third countries."
China
Will China join the game around the war in Ukraine? Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba has asked his Chinese counterpart, Minister Wang Yi, to take on the role of mediator— the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kiev reported on Tuesday. The same message says that Beijing should use its ties with Russia and that the Chinese are supposedly ready for this.
The great powers - China and Russia - have become very close in recent years. Both countries have a negative attitude to the new world order, in which the West is trying to play a dominant role. In early February, Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping issued a joint statement in which China opposed the expansion of NATO, and Russia, in turn, recognized Taiwan as part of the People's Republic of China.
But Beijing's attitude to the events in Ukraine can give us a real picture of how far China is ready to go in confrontation with the West. The fact is that China does not want to bring its relations with the West too close to a rupture. On Friday, China abstained from voting on a UN Security Council resolution calling on Russia to stop its attack on Ukraine.
Anthony Saich, an expert on China, described Russian-Chinese relations in one of his articles: "The current conflict in Ukraine will show whether there is a deeper connection between China and Russia than we see. Or the close relations between the PRC and the Russian Federation are just a temporary situation, something like a forced transaction."
Latin America
Just like in Germany, Putin enjoys the greatest support from the extreme left and extreme right political forces in Latin America. At least Western political scientists consider them to be "extreme": these forces themselves consider themselves "truly left" or "truly right". But Putin can fully rely, first of all, on the three left—wing dictatorships - Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.
Havana accuses NATO and the United States of provoking Russia by forcing it to intervene in the situation in Ukraine. However, for a Communist-controlled island in the Caribbean, supporting the Russian operation in Ukraine is not a safe thing. The fact is that Cuba is not afraid of anything as much as an invasion by the United States. Now the idea of invading Cuba is unpopular in the United States, but its popularity may increase if it is possible to convince Americans of the threat to American interests emanating from Cuba. After all, in this case we will be talking about the damage to America's security by a state located on the very threshold of the United States.
However, the key role is played by Venezuela, which has consistently turned into a military outpost of Russia in South America, and now, due to the mass emigration of millions of its inhabitants, is destabilizing the entire region. Sanctions against the regime of President Nicolas Maduro have led to the fact that the United States has recently been buying oil mainly in Russia.
The hidden threat of an armed hybrid conflict between Venezuela and its neighbor Colombia has been alarming the entire region for several months. The point is also that Colombia is a NATO partner country. Moscow recently threatened to arm Venezuela with missiles.
Recently, the ranks of Putin's friends have been joined by the right-wing populist Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Argentine President Cristina Kirchner. Bolsonaro spoke in favor of the country's neutrality in the Ukrainian conflict.
Bolsonaro, who recently visited Putin in Moscow, said he did not know who he could talk to in Ukraine. Leftist populist Kirchner, who has been running Argentina for eight years, accused the West of double standards and recalled Argentina's claims to the British Falkland Islands.
Syria
Putin also receives strong support in his Ukrainian policy from the countries of the Middle East. First of all, from the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad: he openly condemned the "hysteria" of the West on the Ukrainian issue in a telephone conversation with Putin.
What is happening in Ukraine is "correcting history and restoring the balance lost by the world after the collapse of the Soviet Union." This is the opinion of Assad, quoted by the state news agency Sana. This is not surprising, because Assad defeated the Islamist terrorists and remained in power only thanks to Russia. By military intervention in the Syrian civil war, Putin secured the rule of Assad.
Iran
Iran also depends on Putin to a certain extent. At the moment, negotiations are underway in Vienna on a "nuclear deal" between the international community and Tehran. Russia has so far refused to join the increased sanctions against Iran. Her voice in the UN Security Council has existential significance for Tehran.
In addition, Iran wants to expand trade with Russia in order to circumvent US economic sanctions.
UAE
The United Arab Emirates abstained when the UN Security Council voted on Russia's actions in Ukraine on Friday, without joining the majority that condemned Moscow. The state on the shores of the Persian Gulf does not want to upset Russia, which has become an important partner for it in the field of trade and tourism. In addition, the United States continues to withdraw from this region, while Russia's military presence in the Middle East is expanding.
There is another important reason: on Monday, the UN Security Council imposed an embargo on the supply of weapons to the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The UAE supports groups fighting against the Houthis with weapons. Those, in turn, attack the Emirates with drones and missiles. Russia voted for the resolution on the embargo. It may very well be that Moscow's move can be regarded as gratitude for the fact that the UAE abstained from voting against Russia.
India
India also abstained from voting in the Security Council, where it was a question of condemning Russia. The reason lies in India's strong military dependence on Moscow: "Without Russian spare parts, our planes will not be able to fly and ships will not be able to sail," Foreign Minister Harsh Shringla said some time ago.
Russia is the largest supplier of defensive weapons to India. Russia, for example, has strengthened India's defense capability by sending S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems there. In addition, Moscow supports New Delhi in all matters in the UN Security Council.
Christine Kensche, Carolina Drüten, Tobias Koifer
