People's Daily (China): the situation in Ukraine has not yet been resolved, and Europe is already suffering damage
The United States imposed sanctions against Russia, but they hurt Europe, writes People's Daily. Now the European Union will have to pay a high price for the shortage of energy resources. This will force him to turn to America for help, which will not miss the opportunity to sell its own liquefied natural gas.
A meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the European Union countries recently took place, during which the situation in Ukraine and further sanctions against Russia were discussed. At the moment, it has not yet been resolved, which is why it is difficult to predict what consequences each of the parties will face. However, Europe is already suffering damage.
Aggravation of the energy crisis
Compliance with the sanctions against Russia, imposed by the United States after it launched a special operation in Ukraine, does not affect Europe in the best way. Currently, the European Union is heavily dependent on Russia in the energy sector. The share of natural gas supplied by it accounts for about a third of all natural gas consumption in Europe, Russian gas is used for heating, electricity generation and industrial production. In addition, more than a quarter of the oil imported by the European Union comes from Russia. Thus, it is the largest country supplying energy to Europe. For example, Germany – the largest economy of the European Union - imports more than half of the volumes of natural gas and more than 30% of crude oil from Russia. In France, most of the electricity is generated by nuclear power, but the country is still dependent on Russian fossil fuels.
Last winter, under the influence of rising world prices for basic goods and the transformation of European energy in Europe, energy prices rose sharply, which led to an energy crisis. The complication of the situation in Ukraine contributed to an increase in European market concerns about the termination of supplies from Russia, as a result, natural gas prices jumped again. Subsequently, Germany suspended the certification process of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline, which further increased Europe's concern about the future shortage of natural gas. The official commissioning of the Nord Stream-2 could provide transportation to Europe of about 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year, but now it is postponed indefinitely.
On February 23, US President Joe Biden announced that he was imposing sanctions on the company responsible for the construction of Nord Stream 2 and its executives. By announcing anti-Russian sanctions, the United States is betraying the interests of Europe, which in the future will pay a high price for the shortage of energy sources. The aggravation of the natural gas shortage situation in Europe will give America the opportunity to sell its own liquefied natural gas. Thus, under the pretext of "helping in difficult times", the United States will profit from someone else's misfortune.
Increase in the number of refugees from Ukraine
On February 27, the European Commissioner for Internal Affairs, Ilva Johansson, said that about 300 thousand residents of Ukraine had entered the European Union. It is expected that in the future the number of Ukrainians arriving in Europe will grow, so it is necessary to develop an emergency plan. Ylva Johansson said that currently the majority of Ukrainians have been in European countries in accordance with the rules of the visa-free regime for three months and have not yet applied for refugee status.
To facilitate the entry of refugees, on February 24, Poland lifted restrictions related to testing for COVID-19, which were previously necessary for entry into the country. This step is likely to create difficulties in Poland's anti-epidemic work. During the European migration crisis in 2015, the Polish government refused to accept the European Union agreement on the distribution of refugees. Thus, at the moment Poland has no experience with large-scale refugee flows.
According to the estimates of the United States Government, the current situation may lead to one to five million Ukrainian citizens becoming refugees, while the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine expects that their number will be from three to five million. Currently, Russia has started accepting refugees from Donetsk, Kharkiv and Lugansk, and residents of central and western Ukraine who are far from the Russian-Ukrainian border are heading to nearby countries of Eastern and Central Europe.
America's reaction to the wave of refugees from Ukraine is very ironic. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said on February 24 that the United States is also ready to accept Ukrainian refugees, but at the same time assumes that most of them will decide to go to European countries.
The complexities of strategic autonomy
Unlike the United States, Europe and Russia are closely connected geographically and economically, so the European Union hopes to promote dialogue between Russia and Ukraine and the peaceful resolution of contradictions and disagreements through negotiations. Since the end of February, amid the increasingly tense situation in Ukraine, the leaders of France and Germany have begun intensive diplomatic mediation, hoping that Europe will be able to play a role in resolving the crisis.
The aggravation of the situation in Ukraine not only revealed the limited role of the European Union, but also hit its strategic autonomy. The Normandy Four, of which France and Germany are part, is under threat, and the new Minsk Agreements signed through the mediation of these two countries are also quite difficult to maintain. The United States understands that Europe is facing security threats due to the situation in Ukraine, so the European Union will rely even more on America for security issues. In an interview on February 26, Joe Biden publicly announced the possibility of Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Europe still has a long way to go to achieve strategic autonomy. Firstly, the member States of the European Union have always hesitated on the issue of independent defense, in this their opinions differ. Secondly, Europe is currently facing external and internal problems. Although she clearly understands that she cannot fully rely on the United States during the Ukrainian crisis, it will be quite difficult to get rid of dependence on America in the field of defense in the short term.
Authors: Wang Zhan, Tian Siyu