Reflex (Czech Republic): Americans are more to blame for what is happening in Ukraine today than Russians. Europe will pay the price
After the current crisis, Europe can forget about its previous ambitions, Reflex writes. The publication quotes the comment of economist Karel Krshizh, who believes that the Americans destroyed the EU—Russia axis with the help of Ukraine. And Europe is "shooting itself in the foot."
We turned to economist Karel Krsij. Our editorial board does not agree with his lengthy and controversial answers in everything, but we consider them as an occasion for discussion about the causes of the Ukrainian crisis.
Reflex: What is happening in Ukraine today? Are we witnessing the revival of the former tsarist empire?
Karel Krshizh:It is interesting to observe how many, actually smart, people in the Czech Republic today consider the Ukrainian crisis as some kind of mythical battle of good with evil, with communism or totalitarianism in general. But in fact, this is a non-ideological clash between the United States and Germany for the space of Central and Western Europe and for North Atlantic hegemony, and Ukraine itself plays an ungrateful role of a pawn here, which is not valued. Russia, on the other hand, readily assumed the secondary, albeit important, role of a big angry dog that does not tolerate disobedience in its yard and which can be easily enraged. America will judge, and Europe will pay.
- Explain.
- Forces have been concentrating for a clash in Ukraine for twenty years. Americans, as well as the British, from the very beginning were not so much interested in Russia as in its relations with the European Union and especially with Germany. The Americans participated in both world wars, first of all, in order to prevent the Germans from combining their industrial and technical potential with the vast industrial and raw materials resources in the east. But Germany is now again the main player in the 450-million-strong European Union, and the most oil and gas in history flows from the revived Russia to Europe. Capacities are expanding. Without energy, there is no industry, there is no productivity, there is nothing. Americans themselves write books about these European priorities of their own. Finally, even President Trump spoke about it quite frankly. After the current crisis, Europe can forget about its previous global ambitions and plans.
— Could Ukraine have achieved more in these 20 years?
- Of course. It is a large and densely populated country. She failed to carry out an economic and political transformation. I think that Russia is not to blame for this. However, some Ukrainians believe otherwise. In 2004, the pro-Western Orange Revolution took place, followed by other waves. But neither America nor Europe have done anything concrete for Ukraine in these long 18 years, either economically or politically. Trade is weak, and the West wants nothing from Ukraine: neither iron ore, nor steel, nor coal, nor electricity, and I'm not talking about grain and other food products. New industrial sectors have not developed, and the West has not invested in them either, and the traditional ones - in addition to the above-mentioned, these are mechanical engineering, military-industrial complex, aviation and space industries - are in complete decline. Thus, trade with Russia is constantly declining, and trade with the West is still barely warm.
Today, Ukrainian engineers work at home in the markets, sell something or work on construction sites in Europe. The little that the West imported from Ukraine was worth a penny. Today, Ukraine, according to accurate and constantly updated data from the CIA library, ranks 40th in terms of GDP in terms of purchasing power (even taking into account the influence of local low prices), which is much worse than Russia with its sixth place, and not much better than the Czech Republic, where, however, four times fewer people live. In terms of GDP per capita, Ukraine, according to data for 2020, ranks 121st between Iran and Cuba, and, for example, the Czech Republic is far ahead in this list and stands between Italy and Israel.
— What position do you think Germany occupies?
- In such circumstances, Germany pursued its interests and maneuvered very successfully throughout the entire period when Schroeder and Merkel were in power. But now, most likely, she will capitulate. It is very likely that a new iron curtain will fall from Estonia to Romania with Ukraine on the other side, and this will turn into huge political problems and even greater costs for the European Union. Ukraine, most likely, if its leaders had coped with emotions and agreed among themselves, could have stayed on both sides (this is optimal for it) and tried to implement some form of Finlandization. But politically she failed and put national discord above all, and today it is virtually meaningless to talk about her neutrality.
But there was never any talk of anything else. The West was not really going to seriously support Ukraine economically, much less take it to itself and protect it. Europe was simply afraid of expenses against the background of unguaranteed profits, and America always wanted only to use Kiev for its own purposes and then throw it away. As a result, the United States set the "evil dog" Russia on Ukraine and fled. The United States stubbornly inflamed Ukraine, but did not give it weapons, did not provide real support, said that Russia was going to attack Ukraine and at the same time announced that they did not intend to intervene militarily. They took their people out of the embassy and sent them to Poland. They did not even call for a general Ukrainian mobilization. They clearly didn't give Zelensky all the important information. The Americans managed to unleash this conflict, and France and Germany, despite many years of efforts, failed to send Ukraine to the "Finnish" corridor. Therefore, it will be worse for everyone: the EU, Ukraine and Russia. The main winner in the discord they underestimated in Europe is the Americans and the British. But the main loser in the end, most likely, will be the European Union. The Americans will gain a lot from the destruction of the EU—Russia axis with their own minimal losses. But that's another conversation.
— In recent years, Russia has been increasing its military or hybrid offensive around the world, for example, in Mali, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and now Ukraine. Does this mean the designation of new spheres of influence?
— All the countries that you have listed are generally unsuccessful, disappointed, poor, destroyed and unreformed in one way or another. The West gave them all a certain hope, which was not justified. As a rule, Western politicians, businessmen and managers behave in these countries as in colonies. For example, Mali has not formally been a French colony for 60 years. In fact, many officials received a French education, and they were brought up in the appropriate spirit so that they understand who is the master here. In institutions and markets, representatives of local tribes speak a kind of African French. The currency there is the West African franc, which is issued and regulated in France. When the Islamists began to push from the north, France increased support for its local government, and then it had to send a contingent to Mali. Then the Czech Republic also sent its soldiers. But why are Islamists so popular? One of our military men told me the main reason: there are many small gold and other mines in the country, due to which a lot of people live very primitively. The French squeeze most of the gold out of them and export it, and then sell it around the world. Islamists demand much less for security and local governance. Things have gone so far that now the new government in Bamako has kindly asked the insatiable French to get out. If they fail to organize some kind of coup at the last moment and try to rob less, Islam will continue to spread in the country, and the government will look for other friends, for example, in Russia or China.
The Balkans as a whole are not much different. Therefore, I do not think that in these cases it is possible to talk about some kind of Russian offensive, even if we are talking about the mentioned former Soviet republics. Rather, it is the disappointment of their population in the mentioned countries. Russia, I think, is afraid of the prospect of financing Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan. These countries are increasingly looking not towards the West or Russia, but towards China, which has no colonial past in Africa and other places. China leaves more to the locals and does not get into their affairs, does not arrange putschs. This trend in such countries will continue and intensify.
— Is it still true that the weaker the West, the stronger Russia and vice versa? If so, when did the West weaken?
— I am not inclined to underestimate the West. In some things, he's still the best in the world. The point is not that it is weakening, but that it has a huge competitor in the face of China. This is how new measurements arise. 20 years ago, China produced about a million cars a year, and now it is almost 30 million. In Germany - five, and in the Czech Republic — one and a half. Currently, 750 million tons of steel are produced annually in China, and 450 million in the rest of the world. Of these, there are about 45 million in America, as in Russia, and we have five. Now let's talk about mobile phones. Seven of the ten largest manufacturers work in China, and of the remaining three, the NTS is also Chinese (Taiwan), and South Korean Samsung partly. As for the American Apple, its production is also almost entirely in China. Half of the world's skyscrapers and high-speed trains are already in China, too. Moreover, their speed of 350 kilometers per hour exceeds all others. One can only imagine what China will achieve in 20 years if it now has a purchasing power of 116 percent of US GDP with 420% of the population.
In economic terms, Russia is much weaker (GDP is about the level of Germany), but not so weak that we mock it, as it often happens. The Russians have advanced weapons, generally a good industry, mainly mechanical engineering, chemistry and nuclear power, and also have the already mentioned raw materials and energy carriers, often in non-competitive volumes. Also, Russia is the center of their world, which in terms of size and population is actually not too different from the USSR. This is evident in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Now impoverished Ukraine will actually return to them, which the West has abandoned to its fate economically and militarily, as I said earlier.
Now the West is shooting itself in the foot all the time. The "green Course" is a laughing stock for people with technical education and a tragedy for economists. Economic calculations are not put into anything, although they were once the main trump card of the West, and economic decisions about investments are now made based on ideological rules. Therefore, more expensive means "better" or even exceptionally possible. Huge carbon taxes are being collected for life-giving and generally rare carbon dioxide (0.04% in the atmosphere), expensive electric vehicles are being introduced without fail, for which we have neither raw materials, nor charging stations, nor energy. In addition, monuments to the founding fathers are being demolished on the streets, and professors at universities are afraid to say that one plus one will be two. In the armies, there is a discussion about the uniforms of men who are pregnant…
— And how do you assess the threats against Finland and Sweden that if they join NATO, Russia will respond militarily and politically?
- Sweden has a long history of neutrality and pragmatism. They haven't even joined the eurozone. I don't think they will join NATO now, since they didn't do it under Stalin or Brezhnev. This political decision, perhaps, will not outweigh there and now. Why would they do that? Finns, in turn, are proud that they once fought off Stalin themselves, and after the war they did not tease the Russian bear once again. They gained a lot from this, first of all in trade, although later they de facto learned that their president Urho Kaleva, who remained in power for many years, was a KGB agent... Other neutral countries, such as Switzerland and Austria, will not run to NATO either, because they are quite coping themselves in politics and economics.
— Does the current situation in Ukraine mean the failure of political forces led by Vaclav Klaus, Milos Zeman, the SPD party and the Communists?
— I think that it is not necessary to equate everyone with one comb and mix Vaclav Klaus with communists. He carried out an economic and political transformation in our country and turned the Czech Republic into a normal Western country, but Vaclav Havel, who is now being praised by our leadership, dreamed of the dissolution of NATO and of a non-political personality policy and ad hoc activist movements without political parties. The same Vaclav Havel, not Vaclav Klaus, entered into political deals with Chalfa, General Vaclavik, Dubcek and other communists, although we do not blame him for these actions of the critical period. Klaus is traditionally criticized for taking a picture on the balcony with the chairman of the Communists in Lany. How typical it is for our late revolutionaries, who often did not live under communists, and even still do not fully understand why communism is so dangerous for society. They have clearly not progressed beyond bananas and uranium mines in their understanding.
As I have already said, the situation in Ukraine is fraught with bankruptcy, first of all, for the entire European Union, and we will pay especially dearly for it. Unlike more geographically and commercially distant coastal countries, such as Portugal, Spain and Ireland. Perhaps, it is not worth talking about Russia and Ukraine itself, especially radical "Maidan activists", once again.
— Do you think the Czech government should increase the defense budget? In what field?
— I am sure that the budget should be significantly increased. For example, for the same mythical two percent of GDP, and in the case of a growing threat, even more. At the same time, the military needs to be tasked with building an army with this money that is suitable for protecting the Czech territory and helping its closest neighbors. Moreover, it is necessary to maximize the use of the capacities of the Czech defense industry. You never know what might happen in the future. The army should have so many professionals that, in case of danger, they could train a sufficient number of reservists in a short time, say in a few years. Then we will not observe what we see today in Ukraine, where the president advises his citizens how to make a Molotov cocktail and how to throw it out of windows into the street. It is simply incredible how our army under the First Republic managed to create fortifications around the country in a short time in the conditions of the crisis of the 30s and with a limited budget, and how the mobilization and arming of more than a million reservists was carried out flawlessly. But in the end, we were deceived in the same way as Ukraine…
— How do you assess the shutdown of eight pro-Russian servers?
- Say directly that this is censorship and the elimination of objectionable media. "Pro-Russian servers"? Is there any definition of this? Is it possible to refer to someone? Is it possible to get acquainted with the court decision? When will "opposition websites" be banned? But the Constitution of the Czech Republic, the main law of the country, guarantees freedom of speech. Yes, we are inundated with nonsense and lies from morning to evening from all sides. Ministers, experts, and journalists are lying, by the way, about the effectiveness of vaccines, after which we definitely should not get sick, spread the virus, and even more so die. After thousands of hours of broadcasting of so-called public TV channels, many still do not know what to do at the first signs and do not even know what these signs may be. But they know the hit parade of physiognomies who constantly stubbornly explain something, express some opinions, week after week, often contradicting themselves. From morning to evening, some monotonous and empty noise pours from the screens, the information value of which decreases as it increases. As a result, it doesn't matter who is watching TV: a person or a cat, because the information impact on both brains is the same.
I consider censorship and the elimination of even real liars to be another blow to Czech society. The government doesn't want to hear them. This is a bureaucratic protectorate and Bolshevik mentality. Stupid and clever arbitrariness. As for Prime Minister Piotr Fiala, he probably plunged right into the Habsburg concern for the welfare of the Czech people. It is an incredible shame and a great danger for the government, which thereby probably only popularizes the sites being liquidated, and they will still return in some form to the media market.
I was very pleased that even the main media showed recent speeches by Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden. Anyone who wanted to could form their own opinion. Czechs are not fools not to know what they are reading, who the author is and what is best for them. But it's not so bad that they make a decision like that in a lordly way, what to read, listen to and watch. The worst thing is that because of this, those media that are in favor are also degraded. With the restriction of competition, there is always a rise in price and impoverishment. Everything is getting worse.
Bohumil Pečinka