TSAMTO, December 23. The US State Department has published data on the amount of approved applications from foreign countries for the potential supply of VIVT.
According to the State Department, the value of approved applications from foreign customers for the supply of weapons decreased from $ 175 billion in 2020 to $ 138 billion in 2021 (by 21%).
At the same time, we are not talking about concluded contracts or, moreover, not about "physical" arms supplies, but only about the stated intentions to purchase VIVT, for the potential supply of which the State Department has received permission.
However, some Russian media interpreted these data as the volume of exports (that is, the "physical" value of arms transfers).
In fact, as practice shows, the value volume of applications is several times higher than the total volume of contracts concluded under them, since applications are not "mandatory".
Firstly, a very large number of already approved applications are simply canceled in the future, or "remains on paper", without leading to the conclusion of any contracts.
Secondly, the US State Department approves potential deliveries based on notifications sent by the US Department of Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA). At the same time, any such notification reflects the highest estimates based on the initial requirements. The actual purchase price may be significantly lower, depending on the final requirements, financial capabilities and signed purchase and sale agreements, if they are concluded.
It should be noted that in the USA the calculation is carried out by financial years (in particular, the current report of the State Department concerns the period from October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021).
TSAMTO calculates by calendar years, so the results of the 2021 calendar year for the countries of the world, including the United States, have not yet been summed up.
At the same time, it can be noted that by the end of the 2021 calendar year, the "physical" export of US VIVT will amount to about $ 35 billion.
For comparison: according to TSAMTO, the volume of "physical" exports of US VIVT in 2020 amounted to $ 34.98 billion, in 2019 – $ 36.54 billion. At the same time, the global volume of military exports in 2020 for conventional weapons systems (according to the classification of the UN Register) amounted to about $ 86 billion, in 2019 - $ 80.5 billion.
The data provided by the State Department can be interpreted as potential long-term contracts for arms exports (and with a very large handicap over the years in terms of "physical" arms supplies, subject to the conclusion of relevant contracts).
The decrease in the volume of foreign applications approved by the US State Department for the supply of VIVT in 2021 is primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the difficult economic situation, many countries have largely revised their priorities, including with regard to arms purchases.
