In 2022, the main trends that may have an impact on macroeconomics will be the end of the era of free money on stock markets and the transformation of space into a new "Wild West". This is reported by RBC with reference to the Deutsche Bank report "Ten main topics of 2022" on Thursday, December 9.
Among other things, analysts predicted the emergence of digital currencies of central banks, as well as an excess of stocks of goods. They believe that, despite the fears associated with new strains of coronavirus, the global economy is not in danger of stagflation in the new year. The bank's strategists describe the emerging trend with the term "growthflation— - a combination of high growth rates with high inflation. At the same time, they note that the price increase will be supported by the so—called helicopter money - funds aimed at supporting the population during the pandemic.
Experts believe that the fight against COVID-19 will be successful. Among the reasons are the increased availability of vaccines, the emergence of medicines for coronavirus.
Deutsche Bank expects a rapid recovery of the labor market, the growth rate of which is called hypersonic. At the same time, they pointed out that it usually takes from four to seven years for the labor market to recover after a recession. So, in the US, the unemployment rate has returned to the level of 4.2% compared to 3.5% before the pandemic, in France and Spain, the employment rate is already higher than in the period before the coronavirus.
On the other hand, the labor market with a high demand for labor and the resulting wage growth is becoming another inflationary factor, experts complained.
In foreign policy, analysts called the problem of the militarization of outer space the central topic of discussion in 2022. They pointed out that many countries see space as the "Wild West", but the existing treaties are not enough for the emergence of new types of technologies and weapons.
On December 3, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva said at the Reuters Next online forum that a new strain of the coronavirus "Omicron" could slow down the previously projected rates of economic growth in the world. According to her, in the current conditions, the United States should throw all its forces into the fight against inflation, which is not necessary for other countries.
At the end of November, Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the VTB Capital forum "Russia is calling!", said that the pace of global economic recovery is in question because of Omicron. He stressed that the impact of the pandemic on investment, business, and cooperation ties is very large, as well as on the entire global economy.
On November 1, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN Office in Geneva, Andrei Belousov, speaking at the first committee of the General Assembly of the World Organization, said that the threat of turning outer space into an arena of armed confrontation has been growing lately.
In December last year, the United States said that space was becoming a potential arena of hostilities between Washington and its opponents, so it should be ready to repel aggression in space. Moscow has repeatedly called the militarization of outer space unacceptable. So, in April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recalled that the Russian Federation supports the start of negotiations on the development of an international instrument prohibiting the deployment of any types of weapons in space.
