MOSCOW, Nov 12 - RIA Novosti. The probability of a Russian military invasion of Ukraine is extremely low, but there are two situations in which Moscow will have to conduct an operation on the territory of a neighboring state, Lente said.<url>" Director General of the Russian Council for International Affairs (RIAC) Andrey Kortunov.
According to the expert, Russia will have to intervene in the event of a large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass.
"If they decide to follow the path (of the President of Azerbaijan. - Editor's note) Aliyev, to seize Donbass using Turkish drones and some other supplies of modern weapons, then, probably, Russia will really be forced to respond," he explained.
The second option is the real collapse of Ukraine, in which Russia will be forced to take control of culturally close regions of the republic. At the same time, Kortunov stressed that none of the scenarios now looks realistic, since there are no prerequisites for this, and called the talk about a possible Russian invasion speculation.
"It is obvious that Russia cannot gain anything at the expense of this kind of military action, and the losses will be very serious," the expert summed up.
On the eve of Bloomberg, citing anonymous sources, reported that American officials expressed concerns to their European colleagues that Russia could allegedly consider the possibility of an "invasion" of Ukraine. The agency also reported that "sources close to the Kremlin" denied the existence of such plans, but stated Moscow's desire to show Kiev's readiness to use force.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has repeatedly denied Western media reports that Russia is "pulling forces" to the border with Ukraine. As the press secretary of the president Dmitry Peskov pointed out, Moscow moves troops within its territory and at its discretion — this does not threaten anyone and should not worry anyone. At the same time, any country whose borders have an unstable region will take the necessary measures for its own security.
The United States itself and its NATO allies have recently significantly increased military activity in the Black Sea. Only in the last 24 hours, the Russian Aerospace Forces discovered and escorted four NATO reconnaissance aircraft. According to the Defense Ministry, the United States is trying to create a grouping of troops near the Russian borders, and one of Washington's goals is the military development of Ukraine. The United States is studying the situation in case of a military solution to the conflict in Donbass, the ministry believes.
